blueollie

Why do you believe that?

Trump’s win has lead to a discussion about “political correctness” and people being “shouted down” and “shamed” into falling in line with a tribal orthodoxy.

Of course, Trump is bringing in a toxic right wing version of this which is a much bigger threat.

But still, the liberal community is important to me, and I like to see ideas vigorously discussed and debated. And it has gotten to the point of “why do you believe that” is considered a hostile reply.
So I’d like to move away from stigmatizing questions and conjectures and toward debating them…explaining why bad ideas are bad.

Football:
Navy got stomped by Temple 34-10 and Western Michigan beat Ohio 29-23 the night before. That sends Western Michigan to the Cotton Bowl, I think. What I found curious was Navy fans lambasting Western Michigan last night for not looking overpowering. They seem to have forgotten that Navy had several close calls this season..and there was today’s game.

Navy IS a decent team, but not Cotton Bowl worthy. Sadly, it looks like Navy will be matched up with a dreadful North Texas team in the Armed Forces Bowl; that is disgusting. Navy deserves better than that.

Workout notes: 5K walk outside after a full weight workout, sans ab work
rotator cuff, pull ups (10-5)(10-6), 10, (5-5), bench press: 10 x 135, 5 x 185, 10 x 170, incline: 10 x 140, military (dumbbell) 2 sets of 10 x 50 standing, 20 x 50 seated, supported, 3 sets of 10 x 50 single arm rows.

note: the (10-5) meant: 10 pull ups, switch grip, 5 more…same for 5-5…little to no rest.

December 3, 2016 Posted by | football, walking, weight training | | Leave a comment

More head scratching….

This is just nuts: Clinton’s lead in the popular vote is now about 2.5 million, and her percentage lead is 1.9 percent? And yes, the Democrat has won the popular vote in 6 of the previous 7 elections, though the Republican won the Electoral College thrice.

Nevertheless, our elections, for now, are decided by the Electoral College. Somehow, it makes sense to spend attention to a few “swing states” as opposed to where more people live? That no longer makes sense to me.

But Trump won. Oh, there will be consequences; for example many will lose their health insurance.

So, where do we go from here? I completely agree with this:

As Democrats contemplate their losses in November’s election, most have settled on a solution. They believe that the party needs more economically populist policies. But this misses an essential reality: Most people don’t vote on the basis of policies.

There is excellent research by political scientists and psychologists on why people vote. The conclusion is clear. As Gabriel Lenz writes in his landmark 2012 book, “Follow the Leader?”, “Voters don’t choose between politicians based on policy stances; rather, voters appear to adopt the policies that their favorite politicians prefer.”

And how do voters pick their favorite politicians? It is a gut decision that is more emotional than rational. Mostly it hinges on whether they identify with a politician in the social and psychological senses.

In an important recent book, “Democracy for Realists,” Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels show that “group attachments” and “social identities” are key to understanding voting behavior. Psychologist Jonathan Haidt reinforces this view with mountains of research showing that people choose their political views based on their tribal attachments.

I agree with this. However these sorts of solutions are problematic:

Barack Obama is a singularly charismatic politician. But he might have made Democrats forget that the three Democrats elected to the White House before his election came from the rural South. They knew that world; they were of it.

With these insights in mind, on the campaign trail, perhaps Clinton and the Democrats should have rallied not with Beyonce and Jay Z but rather with George Strait. And if you don’t know who he is, that’s part of the problem.

I agree that Barack Obama is so good of a politician that he may have masked problems that Democrats have. But as far as Beyonce and Jay Z: remember that a Democrat cannot not win without the base. True, they can’t win with ONLY their base, as we found out; we do need at least a few votes beyond our base. But you can’t disrespect your base either.

It is a tricky line to walk.

Workout notes: yesterday, weights only (day after whole blood donation): pull ups (5 sets of 10), rotator cuff, incline bench: 10 x 135, 5 x 160, 10 x 150, military: 10 x 50 dumbbell standing, 20 x 50 dumbbell seated, supported, 10 x 200 machine, rows: 3 sets of 10 x 50 single armed rows, headstand, 2 sets of 10 yoga leg lifts, 12 twist crunches.

today: run only; 5.1 mile shuffle on my hilly course; hills were a chore.

December 2, 2016 Posted by | political/social, politics, politics/social, running, social/political, Uncategorized, weight training | , , , | Leave a comment

A bit of statistics

Ok, how can we draw statistical inference when we cannot run a controlled experiments? After all, correlation and causation are not the same. This is a useful guide as to the how and when. Basically: is the correlation strong, and is there some “plausible reason” for such a correlation? This paper lists 7 points.

Simpson’s paradox You can see a discussion here.

Think of it this way: say 1000 women and 1000 men apply for admission to graduate school. 656 men get admitted, whereas only 260 women get admitted. Does this mean that things are biased against women?

But then we see that there are two very different graduate programs. The very selective graduate program admitted 8 percent of all male applicants but 10 percent of all women applicants. The other graduate program..the “easy to get into” program admitted 90 percent of female applicants and 80 percent of all male applicants. So: we see that the women outdid the men in both programs. Yet, we also see that 800 women applied to the “difficult to get into program” and only 200 men did. On the other hand, 800 men applied to the easy program but only 200 women did.

Check it out: women: 800*.1 =80 admits to the hard program, 200*.9 = 180 admits to the easy program, so 260 total admits. Men: 200*.08 = 16 admits to the hard program, 800*.8 = 640 admits to the easy program, or 656 total admits.

This isn’t just some “trick” either. When social scientists analysed the “stand your ground” defense law in Florida, they found that whites were more likely to be convicted than non-whites. BUT this was because whites were more likely to be accused of assaulting a white victim; it turns out that the probability of prosecution was higher if the victim was white than if the victim was non-white. You can see the details here.

workout notes: 4 mile walk after weights: rotator cuff, 5 sets of 10 pull ups, bench press: 10 x 135, 5 x 185 (strong), 10 x 170, incline: 10 x 135 (very easy), military: 10 x 50 standing, 20 x 50 seated supported, 10 x 200 machine, rows: 3 sets of 10 x 50 single arm. head stand, 2 sets each of 10 yoga leg lifts, 12 twist crunch.

November 29, 2016 Posted by | science, social/political, statistics, walking, weight training | Leave a comment

Fun, social weekend

Ok, my football teams did not do well; in the NFL the Bears and Colts lost; in college: Texas, Notre Dame, Illinois all lost big; Illinois State lost a heartbreaker playoff game..but Navy rolled by a basketball score like 75-31 over SMU.

But workouts were fine: Saturday I walked 2 miles of the FOLEPI course with Barbara and then 4.5 more miles on my own. Sunday; weights then a nice run/walk with the lovely Mama T; that was a real treat for me.

Weights: rotator cuff, pull ups (5 sets of 10), inline (10 x 135, 10 x 150, 10 x 135), military: 2 sets of 10 x 50 standing dumbbell, 10 x 180 machine, rows: 3 sets of 10 x 50 single arm.

Photos: First two from the FOLEPI walk
babsfoelipibutt

babsfolepifront

Barbara with Mama T at lunch today.

babsmamat

Barbara, Jennifer and Me after the Second City Improv. Production at ICC last night.

mejenbabs

bradleywomeneureka2016

The Bradley Women actually trailed D-3 Eureka after 1 quarter and lead by only 8 at the half. The third quarter saw Bradley go on a 31-8 run and BU won going away 103-58; however it was a competitive game for a half.

November 28, 2016 Posted by | basketball, Friends, running, walking, weight training | | Leave a comment

Congratulations to us for not being out there shopping…

Yes, that is what one lady said as she ran past me out on the Riverfront trail. I was out for an easy 5 mile walk on a gray, but seasonal day…after lifting weights.

One my way back to the locker room, I heard two Trump supporters talking; one mentioned that he hoped that Trump’s 35 percent tariff would “bring back manufacturing”.

The walk: I was thinking about running but my legs said “no way”. Building back up is going to be a long process.

The gym was not crowded at all.

Bodyweight (after weights, before walking) 191.7 on the Riverplex gym scale

Rotator cuff, pull ups (4 sets of 10, then one 5-5 where I switched grip)
bench press: 10 x 135, 5 x 185, 10 x 170 (strong)
incline press: 10 x 135
military presses: 2 sets of 8 x 50 dumbbell (standing), 10 x 180 machine.
rows: 3 sets of 10 x 50 each arm.
headstand (shaky), 2 sets of 10 yoga leg lifts, 12 twist crunches

Running: from yesterday’s waddle:

cantcatchthem

I wanted to catch these two women who beat me by 11 seconds (by the clock, 3 seconds by the chip). And I wanted to catch the gray beard (10 years older than I) who beat me by a few seconds. No dice.

chocolateturkey20161

What gives? I haven’t done those 1:30 runs that give me strength, nor those steady, good effort 1-1:10 runs. Everything, save one little tempoish run a week has been at recovery pace, and not much of that.

Plans: I think that it is time for me to focus on getting some 5K “speed” back and not worry about distance for a while.

November 25, 2016 Posted by | running, walking, weight training | , | Leave a comment

Post one: perhaps some fire is left after all?

Bodyweight: 194.5 on the home scale. I was 193 in the gym scale 2 days ago (after lifting) and the results are consistent with how these two scales “weigh’.

Today: weights and an easy 5K walk in West Peoria. Weights: rotator cuff, pull ups (5 sets of 10, these went fine), incline presses (10 x 135, 5 x 160, 10 x 150), military: dumbbell: 10 x 50 standing, 20 x 50 seated, supported, 10 x 200 machine, rows: 3 sets of 10 x 50 each arm. Headstand, 2 sets of 10 yoga leg lifts, 12 twist crunches. I also did numerous sets of light squats (single legged pistol squats and goblet squats) as recovery, and 10 x 200 leg presses.

I found myself getting into it on the incline press session; so I do have at least a little bit of fire left. I just don’t have much of it.

And tomorrow I’ll chase some spandex.

Bodyweight: a bit too high…but pull ups are normal to “better than normal” and usually when I gain weight, pull ups become more difficult. Physically, I am feeling as strong as, ok, stronger, than I’ve felt all year. But my running…well, may I walk about my weight lifting again?🙂

November 23, 2016 Posted by | walking, weight training | Leave a comment

Getting caught up on workouts

Yes, this is a workout post:

Friday: weights only; rotator cuff, pull ups (15-15-10-10), bench: 10 x 135, 5 x 185, 10 x 170, incline: 10 x 135, military: 10 x 50 dumbbell standing, 20 x 50 seated, supported, 10 x 200 machine. rows: 3 sets of 10 x 50 each arm. headstand, abs: 2 sets of 12 twist crunch, 10 yoga leg lifts. Weight: 193 (gym)

Saturday: 4 mile treadmill walk (46:35)
Sunday: 4 mile treadmill run (hotel) 43:15)

Monday: weights only; rotator cuff, pull ups (10-10-10-10-10), bench: 10 x 135, 5 x 185, 10 x 170, incline: 10 x 140, military: 10 x 50 dumbbell standing, 20 x 50 seated, supported, 10 x 200 machine. rows: 3 sets of 10 x 50 each arm. headstand, abs: 2 sets of 12 twist crunch, 10 yoga leg lifts. Followed by: 2 mile walk.

Ok..that should do it.

November 22, 2016 Posted by | running, walking, weight training | Leave a comment

Coming to grips with the fact that we got our butts kicked…

I’ve taken this election loss hard. I found myself not doing the Daily Jumble; though I did it tonight. I just haven’t read the paper than much, pretty much ignored the protest, the cluster f*ck that the transition appears to be …just disinterested. I have gotten out to ball games and have quite the sports watching weekend lined up.

I’ve read some of the election aftermath. Yes, national turnout was down; Trump got just less than Mitt Romney got in 2012, but turnout was actually slightly up in Florida and Pennsylvania. And no, Trump didn’t underpoll due to “shy Trump supporters.”

It appears to be Clinton overconfidence, just as it was in the 2008 primary. We didn’t campaign in Pennsylvania at all…and seemed to regard Wisconsin and Michigan as “safe states” even though Kerry didn’t exactly win these convincingly. Oh yes, Hillary Clinton got over 1,000,000 more votes than Trump did; she has the dubious distinction of being one of the 4 candidates to win the popular vote but lose the electoral college, and is likely to be the candidate with the largest vote margin (in percent, 47.9 to 47.1), to do that.

Man, that sucks. You vote for the candidate that got 1,000,000+ more votes, and the other one is declared the winner.

Workout notes: yesterday, 10K training run. Today: weights: pull ups (15-15-10-10), rotator cuff, incline presses: 10 x 135, 10 x 150 (strong), 4 x 160, dumbbell military: 10 x 50 standing, 20 x 50 seated, supported, 10 x 200 machine, rows: 3 sets of 10 x 50 each arm, headstand. Then 5K walk. Later: yoga-latties with Ms. Vickie (first time in ages; I missed her).

November 17, 2016 Posted by | political/social, politics, politics/social, running, walking, weight training | , , | Leave a comment

Too slow, too weak, too old….

Yesterday, I “ran” a 10K in 59:07. When I finished the race, the announcer said “welcome back Ollie”; evidently they noticed my hiatus from running races. It was the marathon and my preparation for it.

Miles: 9:10, 9:50, 9:24, 9:02, 9:26, 10:17, 1:55 (final 0.2). Guess which mile was net uphill and against the wind at the same time?🙂

Yeah, I was unprepared and so I went at a “just don’t blow up” pace and tried to pick it up at the end. Yes, it was an effort but I did not take a “race risk”. But yeah, I faded just a little but never slowed to a walk and though my finish place was “deplorable” (36/58 overall, 20/28 among the guys, 4/6 in my age group), at least I was close enough to “the pack” to have people to run with at the end.

But it was good to “run with the group” and chat with my running friends.

I need to do more runs at this intensity. This 11:30 mpm bullshit that I usually do in training isn’t going to cut it.

Today: weights only (not that sore) and I was stronger than anticipated. Have I gained weight? (that would explain my 10K time)

rotator cuff, pull ups: 10-15-10-10-5 (ok, not much rest in between sets), bench: 10 x 135, 5 x 185, 10 x 170 (strong), incline: 10 x 135
military: 7 x 50 dumbbell standing, 20 x 50 dumbbell seated, supported (strong), 10 x 200 machine, rows: 3 sets of 10 x 50 each arm.

headstand, 2 sets of 12 twist crunch, 2 sets of 10 yoga leg lifts.

Photos:
This was posted at the official run Facebook Page from the awards ceremony. No I did not win one, nor did I deserve to. But had I just told them at the finish line that I really did the 5K instead of the 10K, and used my 10K finish time, I would have “won” one.🙂 (and been just as unworthy of one). I love statistical quirks.

edgewinner

November 14, 2016 Posted by | running, spandex, weight training | , | Leave a comment

One big way I was wrong…(among others)

I’ve already talked about the polls and the betting lines; together these things fooled me. And turnout: yes, Trump, as of this time, had fewer votes than either Mitt Romney or John McCain…and yes, fewer votes than Hillary Clinton too. But that is for another post.

Today: one way I was suckered is that I sincerely believed what Paul Krugman wrote:

Greg Sargent interviews Hillary’s chief strategist about the coming general election, and finds him dismissive of claims that Donald Trump can repeat his march through the Republican primary. You never know — but it does seem obvious, except to the political pundits completely flabbergasted by Trump’s rise, that the general election is going to be a very different story. For the truth is that Trump’s Republican rivals fought with both hands tied behind their backs, and that just won’t happen from here on in.

Greg summarizes the case very well, but let me do it a bit differently. Think about Trump’s obvious weaknesses, why Republicans couldn’t exploit them, but why Democrats can.

First, he’s running a campaign fundamentally based on racism. But Republicans couldn’t call him on that, because more or less veiled appeals to racial resentment have been key to their party’s success for decades. Clinton, on the other hand, won the nomination thanks to overwhelming nonwhite support, and will have no trouble hitting hard on this issue.

Second, Trump is proposing wildly irresponsible policies that benefit the rich. But so were all the other Republicans, so they couldn’t attack him for that. Clinton can.

Third, Trump’s personal record as a businessman is both antisocial and just plain dubious. Republicans, with their cult of the entrepreneur, couldn’t say anything about that. Again, Clinton can. […]

Clinton, on the other hand, is not ludicrous. She can think on her feet; she’s tough as nails. Do you really think the person who stared down the Benghazi committee for 11 hours is going to wither under schoolboy taunts?

The news media will, I fear, try their best to pretend that the contrast isn’t what it is. We’ll hear endless explanations of why Trump’s vanity, ignorance, and lack of moral fiber somehow prove his “authenticity”, which Clinton somehow lacks. And maybe that will stick with voters. But I don’t think it will. In the end, it will be a race between a tough, smart lady and someone who is obviously a yuge, um, Antonin Scalia School of Law. And voters will notice.

And yet….the Democrats did not show up.

votes20082016

Michael Moore, who isn’t my favorite person, got it right. Democrats need someone charismatic to motivate turn out:

david-horsey-cartoon-2014-elections-squishy-Democrats

And so we are disappointed…both in those who voted for Trump and those who didn’t show up.

Workout notes rotator cuff, pull ups (5 sets of 10), bench press: 10 x 135, 4 x 185, 7 x 170, incline: 10 x 135, rows: 3 sets of 10 x 50 (each arm), military: 7 x 50 standing, 15 x 50 (seated, supported), 10 x 45 standing, head stand, 2 sets of 10 x yoga leg lifts, 12 twist crunch.

run: 21 minutes for 2 mile, 14:30 track mile, 14:50 hill treadmill mile.

November 11, 2016 Posted by | Democrats, political/social, politics, politics/social, running, Uncategorized, walking, weight training | | Leave a comment