blueollie

Why do you believe that?

Trump’s win has lead to a discussion about “political correctness” and people being “shouted down” and “shamed” into falling in line with a tribal orthodoxy.

Of course, Trump is bringing in a toxic right wing version of this which is a much bigger threat.

But still, the liberal community is important to me, and I like to see ideas vigorously discussed and debated. And it has gotten to the point of “why do you believe that” is considered a hostile reply.
So I’d like to move away from stigmatizing questions and conjectures and toward debating them…explaining why bad ideas are bad.

Football:
Navy got stomped by Temple 34-10 and Western Michigan beat Ohio 29-23 the night before. That sends Western Michigan to the Cotton Bowl, I think. What I found curious was Navy fans lambasting Western Michigan last night for not looking overpowering. They seem to have forgotten that Navy had several close calls this season..and there was today’s game.

Navy IS a decent team, but not Cotton Bowl worthy. Sadly, it looks like Navy will be matched up with a dreadful North Texas team in the Armed Forces Bowl; that is disgusting. Navy deserves better than that.

Workout notes: 5K walk outside after a full weight workout, sans ab work
rotator cuff, pull ups (10-5)(10-6), 10, (5-5), bench press: 10 x 135, 5 x 185, 10 x 170, incline: 10 x 140, military (dumbbell) 2 sets of 10 x 50 standing, 20 x 50 seated, supported, 3 sets of 10 x 50 single arm rows.

note: the (10-5) meant: 10 pull ups, switch grip, 5 more…same for 5-5…little to no rest.

December 3, 2016 Posted by | football, walking, weight training | | Leave a comment

A bit of statistics

Ok, how can we draw statistical inference when we cannot run a controlled experiments? After all, correlation and causation are not the same. This is a useful guide as to the how and when. Basically: is the correlation strong, and is there some “plausible reason” for such a correlation? This paper lists 7 points.

Simpson’s paradox You can see a discussion here.

Think of it this way: say 1000 women and 1000 men apply for admission to graduate school. 656 men get admitted, whereas only 260 women get admitted. Does this mean that things are biased against women?

But then we see that there are two very different graduate programs. The very selective graduate program admitted 8 percent of all male applicants but 10 percent of all women applicants. The other graduate program..the “easy to get into” program admitted 90 percent of female applicants and 80 percent of all male applicants. So: we see that the women outdid the men in both programs. Yet, we also see that 800 women applied to the “difficult to get into program” and only 200 men did. On the other hand, 800 men applied to the easy program but only 200 women did.

Check it out: women: 800*.1 =80 admits to the hard program, 200*.9 = 180 admits to the easy program, so 260 total admits. Men: 200*.08 = 16 admits to the hard program, 800*.8 = 640 admits to the easy program, or 656 total admits.

This isn’t just some “trick” either. When social scientists analysed the “stand your ground” defense law in Florida, they found that whites were more likely to be convicted than non-whites. BUT this was because whites were more likely to be accused of assaulting a white victim; it turns out that the probability of prosecution was higher if the victim was white than if the victim was non-white. You can see the details here.

workout notes: 4 mile walk after weights: rotator cuff, 5 sets of 10 pull ups, bench press: 10 x 135, 5 x 185 (strong), 10 x 170, incline: 10 x 135 (very easy), military: 10 x 50 standing, 20 x 50 seated supported, 10 x 200 machine, rows: 3 sets of 10 x 50 single arm. head stand, 2 sets each of 10 yoga leg lifts, 12 twist crunch.

November 29, 2016 Posted by | science, social/political, statistics, walking, weight training | Leave a comment

Fun, social weekend

Ok, my football teams did not do well; in the NFL the Bears and Colts lost; in college: Texas, Notre Dame, Illinois all lost big; Illinois State lost a heartbreaker playoff game..but Navy rolled by a basketball score like 75-31 over SMU.

But workouts were fine: Saturday I walked 2 miles of the FOLEPI course with Barbara and then 4.5 more miles on my own. Sunday; weights then a nice run/walk with the lovely Mama T; that was a real treat for me.

Weights: rotator cuff, pull ups (5 sets of 10), inline (10 x 135, 10 x 150, 10 x 135), military: 2 sets of 10 x 50 standing dumbbell, 10 x 180 machine, rows: 3 sets of 10 x 50 single arm.

Photos: First two from the FOLEPI walk
babsfoelipibutt

babsfolepifront

Barbara with Mama T at lunch today.

babsmamat

Barbara, Jennifer and Me after the Second City Improv. Production at ICC last night.

mejenbabs

bradleywomeneureka2016

The Bradley Women actually trailed D-3 Eureka after 1 quarter and lead by only 8 at the half. The third quarter saw Bradley go on a 31-8 run and BU won going away 103-58; however it was a competitive game for a half.

November 28, 2016 Posted by | basketball, Friends, running, walking, weight training | | Leave a comment

Congratulations to us for not being out there shopping…

Yes, that is what one lady said as she ran past me out on the Riverfront trail. I was out for an easy 5 mile walk on a gray, but seasonal day…after lifting weights.

One my way back to the locker room, I heard two Trump supporters talking; one mentioned that he hoped that Trump’s 35 percent tariff would “bring back manufacturing”.

The walk: I was thinking about running but my legs said “no way”. Building back up is going to be a long process.

The gym was not crowded at all.

Bodyweight (after weights, before walking) 191.7 on the Riverplex gym scale

Rotator cuff, pull ups (4 sets of 10, then one 5-5 where I switched grip)
bench press: 10 x 135, 5 x 185, 10 x 170 (strong)
incline press: 10 x 135
military presses: 2 sets of 8 x 50 dumbbell (standing), 10 x 180 machine.
rows: 3 sets of 10 x 50 each arm.
headstand (shaky), 2 sets of 10 yoga leg lifts, 12 twist crunches

Running: from yesterday’s waddle:

cantcatchthem

I wanted to catch these two women who beat me by 11 seconds (by the clock, 3 seconds by the chip). And I wanted to catch the gray beard (10 years older than I) who beat me by a few seconds. No dice.

chocolateturkey20161

What gives? I haven’t done those 1:30 runs that give me strength, nor those steady, good effort 1-1:10 runs. Everything, save one little tempoish run a week has been at recovery pace, and not much of that.

Plans: I think that it is time for me to focus on getting some 5K “speed” back and not worry about distance for a while.

November 25, 2016 Posted by | running, walking, weight training | , | Leave a comment

Post one: perhaps some fire is left after all?

Bodyweight: 194.5 on the home scale. I was 193 in the gym scale 2 days ago (after lifting) and the results are consistent with how these two scales “weigh’.

Today: weights and an easy 5K walk in West Peoria. Weights: rotator cuff, pull ups (5 sets of 10, these went fine), incline presses (10 x 135, 5 x 160, 10 x 150), military: dumbbell: 10 x 50 standing, 20 x 50 seated, supported, 10 x 200 machine, rows: 3 sets of 10 x 50 each arm. Headstand, 2 sets of 10 yoga leg lifts, 12 twist crunches. I also did numerous sets of light squats (single legged pistol squats and goblet squats) as recovery, and 10 x 200 leg presses.

I found myself getting into it on the incline press session; so I do have at least a little bit of fire left. I just don’t have much of it.

And tomorrow I’ll chase some spandex.

Bodyweight: a bit too high…but pull ups are normal to “better than normal” and usually when I gain weight, pull ups become more difficult. Physically, I am feeling as strong as, ok, stronger, than I’ve felt all year. But my running…well, may I walk about my weight lifting again?🙂

November 23, 2016 Posted by | walking, weight training | Leave a comment

Getting caught up on workouts

Yes, this is a workout post:

Friday: weights only; rotator cuff, pull ups (15-15-10-10), bench: 10 x 135, 5 x 185, 10 x 170, incline: 10 x 135, military: 10 x 50 dumbbell standing, 20 x 50 seated, supported, 10 x 200 machine. rows: 3 sets of 10 x 50 each arm. headstand, abs: 2 sets of 12 twist crunch, 10 yoga leg lifts. Weight: 193 (gym)

Saturday: 4 mile treadmill walk (46:35)
Sunday: 4 mile treadmill run (hotel) 43:15)

Monday: weights only; rotator cuff, pull ups (10-10-10-10-10), bench: 10 x 135, 5 x 185, 10 x 170, incline: 10 x 140, military: 10 x 50 dumbbell standing, 20 x 50 seated, supported, 10 x 200 machine. rows: 3 sets of 10 x 50 each arm. headstand, abs: 2 sets of 12 twist crunch, 10 yoga leg lifts. Followed by: 2 mile walk.

Ok..that should do it.

November 22, 2016 Posted by | running, walking, weight training | Leave a comment

Iowa leaves Illinois out in the cold 28-0

It was 37 F and very windy…cold. That, plus Illinois being on Fall Break made for a sparse crowd. Even Barbara waited this one out in the warm Student Union.

She didn’t miss much though; the first half saw a defensive battle in which Illinois could not take advantage of an interception. In the second quarter, Iowa drove down deep and on 3’rd down, ran it inside the Illinois 2 only to be stripped of the ball. Illinois couldn’t move the ball though and punted..and had the punt returned for a touchdown.

Iowa wide receiver Riley McCarron (83) returns a punt for a touchdown during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game against Illinois, Saturday, Nov. 19, 2016, at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Ill. (AP Photo/Bradley Leeb)

Iowa wide receiver Riley McCarron (83) returns a punt for a touchdown during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game against Illinois, Saturday, Nov. 19, 2016, at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Ill. (AP Photo/Bradley Leeb)

That was the scoring for the first half.

I watched the third quarter from the upper deck hoping to get some sun. No avail, but I had a great view of a 76 yard touchdown drive by Iowa that ate up about 7 minutes (mostly running).

The Illini threw an interception and Iowa attempted a drive. But they got it to the 22 and went for it on 4’th and long, due to field goal kicking woes (and a strong wind). They did not make it.

Illinois drove it to the 48 and on 4’th and 3, went for it and failed; 2 plays later Iowa broke a 50+ yard touchdown run to go up 21-0. The Illini fumbled the ensuing kick off; Iowa said “thank you” via another short touchdown drive to ice it 28-0.

Iowa finished with 262 rushing yards and won the overall yardage battle 342-198. The Illini defense played reasonably well for a half but was eventually worn down by Iowa’s running.

Highlights (if you want to call them that)

My photos:
comeondefenseiowa

seniordayiowa

illinoiscampusiowa

illinibandiowa

Workout notes: 4 mile walk in 46:38 on the treadmill. Yeah, that is slightly faster than some of my training runs.

November 20, 2016 Posted by | college football, football, walking | | Leave a comment

Post election blues

I really have not talked about this election all that much, at least compared to how much I said after the 2008 and 2012 elections. Oh yes, I am furious at our losing; as a party we really failed. The top political consultants ought never be used in a national campaign again. We failed to campaign beyond our base and were grossly overconfident (here and here)

Oh yeah, it is great that our popular vote margin is up to 1,000,000 votes and counting. The Electoral College is what counts, and we ended up underperforming any Democratic candidate since Michael Dukakis in 1988. That is inexcusable.

Oh, we still don’t get it, at least as a party. Here is a House Republican “selfie” with Mike Pence…of course it is all white. BUT THAT ONLY MATTERS TO LIBERALS. That is between “of no consequence” to “that’s the way it should be” to about half of our country.

Ok, I am digressing.

I notice that I’ve done a few things differently. My spouse tells me that I am humming to myself a lot; it is kind of like a constant “sitcom” theme tune. That is what my civic/social life appears to be right now.

And I’ve made the effort to get out more; I made impromptu football games, the regular basketball games, did a race that I wasn’t prepared for (see my workout notes) and even made a yoga/pilates type class for the first time in several years.

And I’ve talked up a storm on Facebook; lots of PM conversations too. This just sucks…though the coming together with others actually feels good in a weird sort of way.

Workout notes: 1 mile warm up on the treadmill, 8 x 400 Deek workout (lane 2): 31:08 for a bit over 5K. 9:54, 10:11, 10:00, 1:02. Roughly it was 9 minutes a mile for the “fast” (lol) part, 12 mpm for the “float” part. This was roughly 2 minutes slower than what I did during 2015. And it wasn’t as if I was not trying; I think that I’ve slowed down again.

Some of it was that my butt was somewhat sore from the exercise class with Ms. Vickie the night before; I think I need to do that class some more.

November 17, 2016 Posted by | political/social, politics, politics/social, running, walking | | 1 Comment

Coming to grips with the fact that we got our butts kicked…

I’ve taken this election loss hard. I found myself not doing the Daily Jumble; though I did it tonight. I just haven’t read the paper than much, pretty much ignored the protest, the cluster f*ck that the transition appears to be …just disinterested. I have gotten out to ball games and have quite the sports watching weekend lined up.

I’ve read some of the election aftermath. Yes, national turnout was down; Trump got just less than Mitt Romney got in 2012, but turnout was actually slightly up in Florida and Pennsylvania. And no, Trump didn’t underpoll due to “shy Trump supporters.”

It appears to be Clinton overconfidence, just as it was in the 2008 primary. We didn’t campaign in Pennsylvania at all…and seemed to regard Wisconsin and Michigan as “safe states” even though Kerry didn’t exactly win these convincingly. Oh yes, Hillary Clinton got over 1,000,000 more votes than Trump did; she has the dubious distinction of being one of the 4 candidates to win the popular vote but lose the electoral college, and is likely to be the candidate with the largest vote margin (in percent, 47.9 to 47.1), to do that.

Man, that sucks. You vote for the candidate that got 1,000,000+ more votes, and the other one is declared the winner.

Workout notes: yesterday, 10K training run. Today: weights: pull ups (15-15-10-10), rotator cuff, incline presses: 10 x 135, 10 x 150 (strong), 4 x 160, dumbbell military: 10 x 50 standing, 20 x 50 seated, supported, 10 x 200 machine, rows: 3 sets of 10 x 50 each arm, headstand. Then 5K walk. Later: yoga-latties with Ms. Vickie (first time in ages; I missed her).

November 17, 2016 Posted by | political/social, politics, politics/social, running, walking, weight training | , , | Leave a comment

One big way I was wrong…(among others)

I’ve already talked about the polls and the betting lines; together these things fooled me. And turnout: yes, Trump, as of this time, had fewer votes than either Mitt Romney or John McCain…and yes, fewer votes than Hillary Clinton too. But that is for another post.

Today: one way I was suckered is that I sincerely believed what Paul Krugman wrote:

Greg Sargent interviews Hillary’s chief strategist about the coming general election, and finds him dismissive of claims that Donald Trump can repeat his march through the Republican primary. You never know — but it does seem obvious, except to the political pundits completely flabbergasted by Trump’s rise, that the general election is going to be a very different story. For the truth is that Trump’s Republican rivals fought with both hands tied behind their backs, and that just won’t happen from here on in.

Greg summarizes the case very well, but let me do it a bit differently. Think about Trump’s obvious weaknesses, why Republicans couldn’t exploit them, but why Democrats can.

First, he’s running a campaign fundamentally based on racism. But Republicans couldn’t call him on that, because more or less veiled appeals to racial resentment have been key to their party’s success for decades. Clinton, on the other hand, won the nomination thanks to overwhelming nonwhite support, and will have no trouble hitting hard on this issue.

Second, Trump is proposing wildly irresponsible policies that benefit the rich. But so were all the other Republicans, so they couldn’t attack him for that. Clinton can.

Third, Trump’s personal record as a businessman is both antisocial and just plain dubious. Republicans, with their cult of the entrepreneur, couldn’t say anything about that. Again, Clinton can. […]

Clinton, on the other hand, is not ludicrous. She can think on her feet; she’s tough as nails. Do you really think the person who stared down the Benghazi committee for 11 hours is going to wither under schoolboy taunts?

The news media will, I fear, try their best to pretend that the contrast isn’t what it is. We’ll hear endless explanations of why Trump’s vanity, ignorance, and lack of moral fiber somehow prove his “authenticity”, which Clinton somehow lacks. And maybe that will stick with voters. But I don’t think it will. In the end, it will be a race between a tough, smart lady and someone who is obviously a yuge, um, Antonin Scalia School of Law. And voters will notice.

And yet….the Democrats did not show up.

votes20082016

Michael Moore, who isn’t my favorite person, got it right. Democrats need someone charismatic to motivate turn out:

david-horsey-cartoon-2014-elections-squishy-Democrats

And so we are disappointed…both in those who voted for Trump and those who didn’t show up.

Workout notes rotator cuff, pull ups (5 sets of 10), bench press: 10 x 135, 4 x 185, 7 x 170, incline: 10 x 135, rows: 3 sets of 10 x 50 (each arm), military: 7 x 50 standing, 15 x 50 (seated, supported), 10 x 45 standing, head stand, 2 sets of 10 x yoga leg lifts, 12 twist crunch.

run: 21 minutes for 2 mile, 14:30 track mile, 14:50 hill treadmill mile.

November 11, 2016 Posted by | Democrats, political/social, politics, politics/social, running, Uncategorized, walking, weight training | | Leave a comment