blueollie

Many angry women do not respond positively to “woke rhetoric”?

Ok, right now I am mixing some conjectures of mine (and I’d welcome facts that either reinforce or shoot down my conjecture).

This is based on my personal relations with women, many (NOT all) who oppose Trump and cannot stand him. Some have told me that they do not identify as being feminist; that feminist rhetoric does not “speak to them”.

I think that I get this. So much of feminist rhetoric, or at least what gets publicized, speaks of “rape culture”, “patriarchy” and the inherent misogyny of our society. And any statistical difference between men and women (say, males being more likely to be interested in mathematics or engineering) is viewed as being, well, due to sexism or misogyny. Much of this attitude is discussed in Pinker’s book The Blank Slate. And yes, Steven Pinker was elected to the National Academy of Science.

The interesting thing is that some of these women ..many(?) actually believe Dr. Ford over Kavanaugh. They have no tolerance for sexual harassment nor sexual assault.

So what is going on? Maybe, just maybe, they share my attitude: sexual harassment is the fault of the person doing the harassment and those in authority who tolerate it. Maybe some males are serial harassers.
And yes, some are disgusted by the Kavanaugh confirmation STILL think that Al Franken should not have resigned (I am one of them).

Politically speaking, I think that the Franken resignation hurts us: it shows a party that is controlled by those with a hair trigger, and I don’t see how that makes us Democrats attractive to anyone but the most “woke” people, who really do not comprise a large percentage of the voting bloc.

And the woke feminists do not even come close to speaking for all women...not even all white women. And responses such as “those who don’t go along with us have internalized patriarchy” isn’t going to win anyone over.

Moving forward:

I think that this is spot on: screaming at Senators in public places isn’t going to do a thing; I doubt very seriously if it will bring any new votes.

Wait..what about the Tea Party in 2010 and those townhalls? I crunched the numbers:

52 Democrat incumbents lost their seats. Half of those were held by Democrats in districts which voted: Bush, Bush and McCain. And

I’ve listed the CD’s along with the Presidential winner in 2008, 2004, and 2000. The last number is the number of times that a Republican president won that district (data from here)

So: 26 of these losses came from districts in which 2008, 2004 and 2000 by the Republican presidential candidate.
14 of these had the Republican president win 2 out of the 3 times
6 of these had the Republican president winning once
6 had elected the Democrat every time.

Or, put another way, 40 of the 52 Democratic incumbents who lost represented “red” or “reddish” districts.
This does not include the currently undecided seats nor those in which the sitting Democrat didn’t run for reelection and the seat switched hands.

Now, how many Republicans hold Democratic voting Congressional Districts?

That is the asymmetry of the situation, as I see it.

Now as far as how it will go: it is unclear as to how the House races will go. Will you see a lot of Democrats in deep blue CD’s and see Republicans barely winning in red CD’s?

October 7, 2018 Posted by | political/social, politics, republicans | | Leave a comment

Kavanaugh fiasco and the fissures in our country

Oh, did this fight over Kavanaugh open up a can of worms.

For one, the discussion of “ok, exactly how do you treat the testimony/stories of the alleged victims? The answer really can’t be put on a bumper sticker. And no, it isn’t as simple as “few allegations are false”…for many reasons.

And what was going on in THIS case? No, it isn’t always as simple as “one of them is lying” or “one of them got it wrong.”.

And as to who you believe or who you trust more or who you trust more to be accurate depends on many prior assumptions.
Liberals tend to see this as “yet another case of a powerful man getting away with it” whereas conservatives see this as yet another case of liberals besmirching a fine man for political gain.

And, the Republicans used the latter feeling, along with a discomfort with the “me too” movement to further political support. And given the make up of the Senate, the did not need as much total support as liberals would have needed.

Republicans aren’t going to be intimidated by “vote ’em out”, etc. Now about those midterms, here is the 538 forecast (Wang has the House as 50/50, Senate favoring the Republicans).

House forecast

Senate forecast

Senate composition

October 6, 2018 Posted by | political/social, politics, republicans, republicans political/social, social/political | , , | Leave a comment

Seeing it their way….

The Kavanaugh hearings has reopened some of the scars in our social fabric. Of course, I am hearing the old “how awful he is” stuff (and I tend to agree that he lacks the demeanor and temperament to be on the SCOTUS, and I deeply resent Sen. McConnell bellowing on about the politics of obstruction, when, in fact, he wrote the book on it).

But I think it is useful to remember that the set up the Senate gives vastly disproportionate power to smaller, mostly more conservative states and, on the average, conservatives have a different view.

Yes, even conservative women have a different view of the proceedings; many see them as deeply unfair to Kavanaugh. And, many see Ford as having political motivation…as either lying or exaggerating in order to help defeat the nomination. Hence they do not see Trump’s mocking of her testimony as mocking a victim, but rather the mocking of a dishonest political opponent who tried to pull a fast one on them. You see, to them, Trump had the “guts” to stand up to the feminist activists and tell them “forget about it…we see through you.”

And, to be honest, I think that there ARE problems with the #metoo movement, some of which are outlined here (and respectfully discussed; this isn’t some hateful hit piece).

The country is not monolithic and the people that we do not regularly associate with probably think differently than us.

Workout notesweights only; no yoga.

usual rotator cuff, back, plank (sucked) and headstand afterward.

pull ups: 5-5-5, 15, 10, 10, incline: 10 x 135, 6 x 150, decline: 6 x 170, military: 10 x 50 standing, 10 x 45, 10 x 90 machine, rows: 3 sets of 10 x 110. It was “quick and dirty”.

October 4, 2018 Posted by | political/social, republicans, social/political, weight training | 1 Comment

Uniting with those you do not like: 2018 midterms

Ok, I have no political science credentials. But at least lately, it seems that we are in the following cycle: Republicans govern (or attempt to). Republicans crash the economy (or at least make things worse). People get disgusted. They vote the Democrats in. Things get better but a combination of Democratic infighting and the Democrats championing unpopular stuff gets them voted out of power and the Republicans take over again, only to run things into the ground, again.

I’ll talk about the Democrats championing unpopular causes at another time (but IMHO, this is a combination of the Ant and the Grasshopper and “Beggars can’t be choosers” in action)

But right now I will just say this: I find my fellow Democrats to be very annoying. For one, we are as prone to “argue by slogan” as anyone else. For example, take the current debate as to whether to keep Nancy Pelosi as the leader of the House Democrats.

As I see it, there are many pros and cons: she is a good fundraiser and she has had some great accomplishments (e. g. getting the ACA through the House). On the other hand, the House Democrats have steadily lost seats and many feel that her time is past. And it is clear that the GOP thinks that she is a good thing to run against in the red Congressional Districts that are closely contested.

You’d think that this is worthy of debate, right? Well, no..not for some:

You see: it is all misogyny. (eyeroll).

Never mind that many Democrats who don’t want Pelosi would be happy with another female. Now if you want to talk about ageism…maybe that could be PART of it.

But in the upcoming midterms, none of this really matters. If you oppose Trump, vote for the Democrat, period. Opposing Trump IS enough (and yes, one Jill Stein backing idiot tried to tell me it wasn’t enough).

August 10, 2018 Posted by | Democrats, politics, politics/social, republicans, social/political | , | Leave a comment

Taking the bait vs. fighting back

First, I found this amusing:

There are 6 I do not recognize. But still, #walkaway is some program that uses Russian bots to convince Trump supporters that Democrats are just leaving in droves.

But notice whose photo is NOT there? I think that there is a reason for that.

Now among the rank and file “internet” liberals there appears to be two schools of thought as to what to do socially. One is to try to make it toxic to be a Trump supporter in public. People claim that Maxine Waters said to do that, but she was clearly talking about *Trump officials*. No, I do not approve of that. But that was NOT a call to harass Trump supporters.

But yes, some liberals DO approve of restaurants turning away those with MAGA hats or even doing direct harassment.

I do not approve of that and.. frankly, I find it politically counter productive.

Seriously, some people think that screaming “oh, I just HAAAAATE YOU” is going to convince somebody, or at least change their vote?

And yes, Trump is just eating it up…trolling the hell out of us, mocking “me too” and even slurring Maxine Waters:

PRESIDENT TRUMP: I said it the other day, yes, she is a low IQ individual, Maxine Waters. I said it the other day. High — I mean, honestly, she’s somewhere in the mid-60s, I believe that.
(APPLAUSE)

Yes, these sorts of statements would get one fired from many types of jobs and many Trump supporters know that. But Trump can say them with impunity …so it must feel good to the MAGA crowd to watch the liberals writhe with outrage.

Guess what: they are enjoying this!

I think that our only recourse is political pragmatism; win as many down ticket elections as we can and win in 2020. And saying “if you voted for Trump you are a HORRIBLE human being and I just HATE you” isn’t a winning political message. At least, I don’t think it is.

Nevertheless, many will continue to “take the bait”.

July 6, 2018 Posted by | Democrats, politics, politics/social, republicans, republicans politics, social/political | , | Leave a comment

Gerrymandering (my “lesson learned”) and the power of simply not caring what others think

I remember when I was gerrymandered into IL-17 from IL-18. At first, I was happy. I got to vote in the D-primary and was “yippee, I finally get a Democrat to represent me”.

But ..well, IL-18 became even more right wing; prior it was home to moderate Republicans like George Michael and Ray LaHood. And they actually appeared to listen.

I am not saying that Cheri Bustos doesn’t listen; she does. But my input really makes little difference as she is going to vote the way I’d like, oh, 90-95 percent of the time. And there is little danger of her losing her seat; there is really nothing for me to do, save enjoy much of her Instagram feed.

At times, it resembles the feed of a fitness model. 🙂

And other races…safe seats all the way around, except for things like City Council.

Not caring If you asked me which politician I dislike the most, it would not be Trump. Trump, IMHO, is a skilled con artist and basically an outlet for the dark underside of our country. Every advanced country has people like him and shame on us, as a country, for falling for it.

The politician I dislike the most is Mitch McConnell. He is smart, skilled, and utterly amoral. That is a very deadly combination. And people’s opinion of him matters not at all.

But…well, seeing this did gladden my heart just a bit. This was very gentle, First Amendment stuff, and a politician who can’t handle this sort of gentle heckling should retire.

And yes, I say that to Democratic politicians as well, even when the hecklers are ill informed, ignorant and downright stupid (as hecklers often are).

If you can’t stomach listening to an ignorant, stupid person pontificate, don’t go into politics.

June 28, 2018 Posted by | politics, politics/social, ranting, republicans | | Leave a comment

Hot topics and hot weather (Trump, Me Too, Nazis…the real ones)

I was somewhat amused to see the Miss America pageant,…er..competition, drop the swimsuit and evening gown “competition”. I wondered “is that even a thing?” (about 5-6 million viewers watch). But then I heard the decision was, in part, related to “me too”? Yeah, I know…”women as sex objects”, etc. (I really saw Miss America as an old, outdated thing that only modern day “plastics” aspire to.

Then I recalled: bad sex is considered part of “me too” by some. Boorish, clueless behavior is considered part of “me too” by some.

Even the case where a subordinate comes on to the superior and the superior doesn’t reject is called “me too”.

Really?

Well, I suppose they can make their movement about anything they want. And as long as the movement was about sexual assault and sexual harassment (especially in the work place), you could count me in. No one should be forced to engage in sex acts against their will, and certainly, no one should have to tolerate sexual harassment to keep a job or get a promotion. What a nightmare that must be!

But, increasingly, “me too” appears to be becoming some sort of catch-all phrase to indicate something that some woman, somewhere, doesn’t like because they feel it contributes to sexism or misogyny (or what they think is “misogyny” anyway).

Good luck with that.

Note: I am not sure that this expansion of “me too” is going to help politically. I do know that in 2012, Obama got 42 percent of the white women vote and 55 percent of the women vote, and in 2016 Clinton got 43 percent of the white women vote (1 point higher, well within MOE) and 54 percent of the women vote (1 point lower, again within MOE). (per CNN exit polls, 2012 and 2016). Given the publicity that Trump had..well, evidently women, on the whole, did not see Trump’s behaviors and statements to be disqualifying. In fact, he was very open about his attitude from the get-go.

If we beat Trump in 2020, it won’t be because of “me too”, pussy hat marches, or other such things.

Now, of course, “me too” really isn’t purely political. But I do think that keeping it a bit more narrowly focused might help win allies (say, Republican women who don’t like sexual harassment either).

Back to Trump and the Republicans: I have to agree with this assessment. I do not know how the 2018 midterms will go (D’s are a slight favorite to take back the House..but barely more than a 50/50 favorite) but Trump is NOT in free fall. If anything, he may well get reelected.

I cannot tell you how much this distresses me. They are incompetent and proud of it! Administration officials boast that D-Day was part of our long relationship with Germany. Republican Congressmen cannot tell the difference between Nazi and US troops.

And still, Republican voters do not care. Sigh…

Workout notesIt was a bit warm and sticky outside and I wanted some turnover so I went to the (still warm but out of the sun) gym.
Treadmill: slow 10 minutes then 2.234 miles in 21:21 (9:33 pace, 6.1 for 10 minutes, then 6.2-6.6 every 2, 6.7 for 1:21). Then walk/jog to get to 43 minutes for 4, 56:40 for 5. Then a slow walk outside; it was enough today.

June 7, 2018 Posted by | political/social, politics, republicans, running, social/political | , | Leave a comment

Dark Web, Democrat advantages, Republican bubbles, etc.

Oddly, or perhaps not so oddly, education tends to make people MORE partisan. I suppose that part of the reason is that we become better at advocating for our positions and learning how to counter “their” arguments. Now for me: I need at least a grudging acceptance of science though, yes, there is some liberal BS that gets passed around as fact and that grates on me.

Those who call it out are, of course, criticized (which is fine) but sometimes, there are those who try to “deplatform them” at events; try to drown out their talks. What the idiots who do this don’t seem to get is that it makes people angry (those who are there to hear the speaker)..and doesn’t strengthen their position at all. And some of these people (serious thinkers) have been lumped together with genuine crackpots in a recent article about the so-called Dark Web.

And there lies the trouble: the “taboo” stuff is mostly bunkum but some of it is not; it would be helpful to have genuine experts weigh in without being shouted down by the virtue signaling peanut gallery.

Now what about 2018 and 2020? In liberal bubbles, you’d swear that there was a “blue wave” coming. But the evidence is mixed. Yes, the incumbent party usually loses seats AND the special elections, to date, have been very bad for Republicans. But Trump’s approval has been creeping up into the low to mid 40’s and the generic ballot doesn’t show much of an advantage for the Democrats any longer.

Yeah, many Democratic women won primary elections, but mostly in districts where the Democrats have no chance in 2018.

The Republican base is too brainwashed to be able to admit that the FBI has genuine evidence on Trump. So you can forget things like impeachment or removal.

So what will happen in the 2018 midterms? I do not know; there are conflicting indicators. Betting markets: Republicans 2-1 favorites to hold the Senate (at least 50-50); Democrats 2-1 for the House.

May 11, 2018 Posted by | political/social, politics, republicans, social/political | , | Leave a comment

How they see us…

This is a reasonably accurate view of how many Republicans view us. So I will discuss these, one by one. And yes, I will be speaking for myself. And yes, one each of these points, save perhaps the last one (no, abortion is NOT murder) and the one about “persecuting Christians” (no sane American wants anything resembling “persecution”) you will find at least a few liberals that the points apply to..and yes, some really do not believe in prisons, at all.

Let illegals in: this one is interesting. If you dig deep enough, it is certain INDUSTRIES that want illegal immigrants; they can get away of paying their workers less AND being a bit harsher. What you are seeing from liberals is that we want a realistic solution for those who are already here; you just aren’t going to bus them all back. And many of us take..yep..Ronald Reagan positions.

Remember that Republicans used to speak THIS way:

Yes, there are a few “people have the right to go anywhere in the world they want to go, regardless of borders” liberals; you can find them. But they aren’t mainstream.

Let criminals out Yes, there are a few (very few) who believe in no prisons at all. But what most of us want is more equitable criminal justice (e. g. not jailing people for years over marijuana, more even sentencing, more leeway for judges to use individual judgment in cases, etc. But we don’t want dangerous criminals in our neighborhoods any more than Republicans do.

coddle the lazy Ok, this might have a bit of truth in it for more (but by no means all) liberals. There are many who make excuses for any behavior (like this). But many of us take a somewhat more nuanced view.

First of all, there are people who genuinely need it (even conservatives accept this). And there is a balances between making the program usable and efficient and putting in so many “catch the slackers” checks that the programs either become unusable or more expensive than necessary (e. g. drug tests for welfare).

There is also research which shows that some types of welfare (for kids) leads to kids being LESS likely to need it when they become adults. It also provides some “bottom up” stimulus to the economy.

So…I see it as a nuanced situation with benefits and some potential harms (yes, dependency is real)

And yes, some who are now perpetually dependent have a lifetime of stupid, irresponsible decisions. Of course, most who have ever used welfare are not chronically dependent on it.

persecute Christians Ok, while it is true that many liberals do not accept that any religion should dictate what the rest of us should do, to think that there is anything above a crackpot level of support for a genuine persecution of Christians is absurd. And no, saying that others shouldn’t be a captive audience to your prayers at a public event is hardly “persecution” Calling creationism a discredited crackpot theory is not persecution.

demonize police officers Ok, you can find a few liberals who do. Yes, there have been outrageous chants directed at police at some BLM rallies. But what MOST of us want is more equitable law enforcement: for people to not be singled out because of their race. You’d think that wanting people to be judged for what THEY actually do rather than what some who might share a skin tone with them do is, well, a deeply conservative idea.

Here is a REPUBLICAN talking about the matter; I think that he gets it right.

let boys in Girl’s bathrooms This is so new, and yes, when there is an underdog group that is being attacked, liberals tend to rally around. But this is a seriously complicated issue. And we have to ask ourselves: why do we want sex specific bathrooms? Once we can answer that question, then we can move further.

And yes, IMHO, something like bathrooms are different than, say, locker rooms..many biological females would not be comfortable seeing “transwomen with male genitals”.

tolerate and accept radial Islam This is where there is a mixture of dishonesty and misunderstanding on both sides. Yes, many liberals are too reluctant to call out the excesses of Islamic states and the noxious, bigoted, and religiously approved actions from some Muslim communities around the world. And some of the ones to call liberals to task over this are, well, other liberals.

On the other hand, I’d assume that most US Muslims are here because they want a society where there IS freedom. And, no Republicans: my saying that US Muslims should have the same rights to build mosques that Christians have to build churches does not mean that I support ISIS. PS: US conservatives have a great deal more in common with conservative Muslims than I do…women’s rights, gay rights, etc.

advocate for the murder of the unborn As long as you conflate abortion with murder, we may as well not even talk. To conflate the two is absurd.

Workout notes weights and a fun 2 mile walk.

weights: usual PT, pull ups (4 sets of 10, one 5-5, these were rough), bench: 10 x 135, 4 x 185, 7 x 175, incline: 10 x 135, military: 10 x 50, 10 x 45, 20 x 40 standing dumbbell, 3 sets of 10 x 200 Hammer, usual PT, 2:30 of plank still sucked…evening: yoga with Ms. V was especially good.

May 8, 2018 Posted by | political/social, politics, republicans, republicans politics, walking, weight training | Leave a comment

Guns and Trump support..is the tide turning, just a bit?

This was a different situation as Sarah Palin had resigned from office. But it appears that support for her dropped after her infamous “blood libel” comment.

And while a few polls have Trump’s support under 40 percent, his Real Clear Politics average remains at 41 percent. There is not much to see in terms of approval rating. But is the tide starting to turn just a bit?

And yes, the latest horrific mass school shooting really has little to do with Trump though the current “debate” (war for our country’s soul?) breaks along Trump supporter lines. Take a look at the political maps here: if only gun owners voted, Trump only fails to win Vermont. If only people who are NOT gun owners voted, Clinton wins in a landslide (losing West Virginia and perhaps Wyoming).

Trump made things worse with his bravado:

“You don’t know until you test it, but I really believe I’d run in there even if I didn’t have a weapon,” Trump told a gathering of governors at the White House. “And I think most of the people in this room would have done that, too.”

Yes, he put a disclaimer ..but: run where? It was a large campus and it was all but impossible to know where the shooter was. But this sort of “Dirty Harry” fantasy plays well with Trump’s base.

And there is the whole assault weapons issue. Please spare me with “no, there is no such thing as an assault weapon” bullshit. The AR-15 and weapons like it are really military grade weapons, minus an automatic feature. They are designed to kill and wound many people, very quickly. And a “bumper stock” can make it very “machine gun” like.

And so we are talking about possibly reviving the assault weapons ban.

Now yes, MOST gun deaths and criminal gun deaths are due to ordinary handguns (another issue); mass shootings are a small percentage of all homicides. And the previous federal assault weapons ban didn’t reduce gun crimes or gun homicides, though it appeared to have a positive effect on mass shootings (4 or more deaths)

The figure from the Wiki article on the Federal Assault Weapons Ban and the method of tabulation is found here.

So, if nothing else, this might calm the effect on the national psyche, though, it won’t reduce gun deaths by that much, or at least to a degree that statistics can detect.

I do not know how it will play out. But if the non-NRA forces can band together and stick together, perhaps the NRA can be taken down financially, or at least forced to reform itself to reverting to being an association for the rank and file gun owner.

Disclaimer: ok, I don’t like guns, and I am worried that some moronic Dirty Harry wannabe will end up trying to play the hero and shooting innocent people.

(yes, that fear has little to do with assault weapons)

But I once earned a “Marksman” ribbon in the military (pistol) and once shot “for pleasure” back in 1981 (target range). And no, I don’t have an issue with hunters, skeet shooters, competitive shooters, business owners who have a weapon for self defense, farmers who use a firearm as part of their livelihood, etc.

And yes, I get tired of some of what passes for debate (e. g. “ha, ha, criminals don’t obey the law”, etc.)

February 28, 2018 Posted by | politics, politics/social, Republican, republicans, republicans political/social, social/political | , | Leave a comment