blueollie

Please take my two polls: who are you voting for, and who do you think will win?

May 4, 2016 Posted by | politics, poll | | Leave a comment

Sanders resisting the verdict …

Yes, Hillary Clinton has a commanding lead in pledged delegates and leads in every April Indiana poll (3 to 15 points).

feelthemath

But Sanders is not going quietly:

Here’s how the narrative could have run: although he fell short of actually getting the nomination, Sanders did far better than expected, giving him and his movement a good claim to have a big say in the Democratic agenda for 2016 and perhaps setting the movement up as the party’s future. But to take that position — to turn defeat in the primary into a moral victory — he would have had to accept the will of the voters with grace.

What we’re getting instead is an epic descent into whining. He dismissed Clinton victories driven by black voters as products of the conservative Deep South; he suggested that his defeat in New York was unfair because it was a closed primary (you can argue this case either way, but requiring that you identify as a Democrat to choose the Democratic nominee is hardly voter suppression — arguably caucuses are much further from a democratic process); then, with the big loss in the mid-Atlantic primaries,he has turned to a sort of fact-free complaint that any process under which Bernie Sanders loses is ipso facto unfair, and superdelegates should choose him despite a 3 million vote deficit.

At this point it’s as if Sanders is determined to validate everything liberal skeptics have been saying all along about his unwillingness to face reality — and all of it for, maybe, a few weeks of additional fundraising, at the expense of any future credibility and goodwill. Isn’t there anyone who can tell him to stop before it’s too late?

And the true believers have gone off the rails. To them “the will of the people” means…well…*their* will. You might see them as similar to our Tea Party. So sad…not sure it will make that much of a difference in the end.

May 3, 2016 Posted by | politics, politics/social | , | Leave a comment

Democratic endgame and resentments…

Correspondents Dinner This is President Obama’s speech. It is hilarious.

Yes, President Obama said that, with regards to who will be doing the President’s speech at the dinner, we have no idea who she will be, and yes, Hillary Clinton has a 2 standard deviation lead on Donald Trump in the polls, and that translates into about a 93 percent chance of victory. and I will say that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are both well known, so perhaps there won’t be too many surprises.

However those backing the Sanders campaign have yet to concede. Oh, the signs are there; for example the Sanders campaign has reduced staff. Still, you see stuff like this from Sanders supporters like Robert Reich:

I’m getting lots of emails and notes on this page from those of you who say you’re feeling discouraged, given the diminishing likelihood of Bernie’s nomination. And from others of you who ask me what you should do in the event he doesn’t get the nomination. To both, I have these three suggestions:

1. First, continue to work hard to increase Bernie’s chance of success. (Despite what you hear in the media, he still does have a chance.) California’s June 7 primary will be critical.

2. If Bernie doesn’t win the nomination, you have to decide for yourself how active you’ll be in supporting Hillary Clinton. If Trump is the Republican nominee, my personal view is Hillary’s election to the presidency is absolutely essential to the future of this nation and the world.

Though I welcome point 2, point 1 is just plain irresponsible. Sanders is at “winning the lottery” degree of probability. He has to win something on the order of 60 percent of the remaining delegates, and he is trailing in California. Remember, just winning impressively is no longer good enough to catch up.

Hence, his “Bernie or bust” supporters are talking about “burning it all down”. Seriously? Ok, we’ve been through the PUMAS of 2008 and guess who won the general election? And yes, I was sore at Hillary Clinton..but then again, she didn’t trail as bad as Sanders trails. And now, look who I am backing!

Now some have become very bitter toward Senator Sanders. I can recommend this very long, but fact filled essay. All too often, Sanders supporters accuse you of being a “sell out” or “closet Republican” if you reject their plans which make…some rather rosy assumptions. In fact, the 2016 Democratic debate is really between the pragmatists and the idealists. Or views of the problems facing the United States and where we want to eventually end up are remarkably similar.

But as far as Sanders goes, this meme sums it up for me.

sanderspolitician

He is no revolutionary nor is he a saint (neither is Hillary Clinton). He is a politician and he is fighting to win..and politics can be bare knuckles at times.

May 1, 2016 Posted by | 2008 Election, Barack Obama, political/social, politics | , , | Leave a comment

Nostalgia and Victimhood

My victimhood and whining: well, it was overcast and sort of cool. I “ran” (slogged?) outside at a bout 11:30 mpm; I chose my Cornstalk 8.1 mile course (1:33 or thereabouts..this was time of day. I didn’t start my stopwatch).

About .6 miles into it (1 km) I turned onto Parkside and a university runner came running by; she had on cropped shorts and it was easy to see how athletic she was. She smiled and said “hi” right about the point where we were side by side and within a minute or so she was already at Main Street and I had advanced about half of the distance she did.

Oh well…what are you going to do? My options: quit or be content to manage the pace that I can manage.

That reminded me of this article: in politics, some politicians pine for a “return to…and earlier era”. Now that did NOT work with my parents; they grew up dirt poor during the depression era. Personally, I wouldn’t mind returning to an era when I was faster, stronger and my mind was a bit quicker, but I don’t think that a politician is going to help with that.:-) And I rather like the internet, modern medicine, and more tolerance.

Now, of course, some may really be pining for a less diverse time in US history; e. g. not putting up with accents, people who dress differently and who either worship no god at all, or worship differently. But seriously, what some politicians call “Real America” really isn’t. THAT might be what some are nostalgic for. Not me.:-)

Example: I like our first black president and am looking forward to electing our first female president this year.

But alas, those who might be on the losing end of an election are…well, “victims”. So they say. Hey, I know that losing an election hurts; I felt like crying after the 2004 loss. But instead I joined the local Democratic party and worked to help make 2008 different.

Another topic This is an interesting article as to why one should…ahem…be skeptical of skeptics.

April 28, 2016 Posted by | political/social, politics, politics/social, running, social/political | Leave a comment

The FAILS of desperation and other nonsense…

Workout notes: sore right shoulder so I took it sort of easy:

Weights: 5 sets of 10 pull ups (slowly)
rotator cuff
incline press: 10 x 135, 7 x 150, 10 x 135
military press: 2 sets of 10 x 40 standing (dumbbells), 10 x 45
rows: 3 sets of 10 x 40
head stand (sort of unsteady)
twist crunch (2 sets of 12), yoga leg lifts (2 sets of 10)

Walking: 52:10 for 33 laps of lane 1 on the track (just over 4 miles) 12:57/12:55/12:30/12:15/1:30

Later: 2 miles with the group.

Posts and FAILS

Dennis Hastert: former Speaker of the House and convicted child molester. Note his wheelchair: an attempt to garner sympathy?

On less severe levels
Ted Cruz: syas that Carly Fiorina would be his running mate if he is the nominee. This helps…how?

Our Republican friends: some of them are claiming:

cartoonsprove

So, now cartoons “prove” things. No wonder so few scientists are Republicans.

But some Sanders supportersare equally delusional:

Imagine, if you will, a vocal and disenfranchised block of voters disgusted with their party’s primary process and the anointed nominee, after watching the man who embodied their hopes and dreams being cast aside.

Imagine their calling for him to run as an independent, to stand for them and against an establishment that has been in the driver’s seat far too long and does not represent their interests.
I give you independent third-party candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

“Disenfranchised”? So, your candidate losing an election is called being “disenfranchised”? LOL.:-)

Now for some WIN

27aprilodds

Hillary Clinton: 1/3; those are the best odds yet. Yes, she had a good night, losing only Rhode Island and piling up massive margins in Pennsylvania, Delaware and Maryland. She padded her lead by 53 pledged delegates and now leads by 297. We are now at a place where Sanders needs to win on the order of 65 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to draw even…not going to happen.

Donald Trump: crushed Cruz and now has a massive lead.

April 28, 2016 Posted by | political/social, politics, social/political, walking, weight training | , , , | Leave a comment

Time to carry Sanders out on his shield?

If polls or demographics are a any guide, Hillary Clinton stands to pad her pledged delegate lead by another 40-50 (or more!) tonight, and she seems to poised to win at least 4 of the 5 states (possibly lose in Rhode Island). Even more telling: there will be far fewer delegates left for Sanders to catch up with:

silver-bernieacela-41

Nate Silver’s graph shows the percentage of the remaining pledged delegates that each candidate must win to secure a majority of pledged delegates. And after tonight, that number could well shoot to 65 percent for Sanders.

It may not be a knockout, but it is poised to be another 10-8 round for Clinton.

April 26, 2016 Posted by | political/social, politics | | Leave a comment

Bernie Math Joke

Workout notes: beautiful day so I took it outside for my hilly Cornstalk 8.1 mile running course, followed by a 1 mile walk.

1:26:13 (44:12/42:01); last 1.03 miles was done in 9:06 (8:50 pace…THAT is picking up the pace?:-) )

the 1 mile (plus) walk was untimed.

There are a series of primary elections today. One poll came out that showed Sanders ahead in Rhode Island, so perhaps I should walk back my prediction for a sweep? Still, Maryland should be blowout and Pennsylvania should be more or less like New York, so I see Hillary Clinton adding 40-50 pledged delegates to her lead..and more “delegates in play” will come off of the table.

It is getting time for us to carry Senator Sanders off on his shield. Yes, he fought hard, and I respect the campaign that he has run. But today should be yet another 10-8 round for Clinton.

Don’t expect the more hard-core Sanders supporters to accept it though:

April 26, 2016 Posted by | politics, politics/social, running, social/political | , , | Leave a comment

Obama’s approval exceeds Reagan’s (slightly, at this point in their respective administrations)

It is clear that President Obama’s job approval ratings exceeds those of President George W. Bush. But did you know that, at this time in their respective administrations, Obama’s approval ratings slightly exceeds Reagan’s? (yes, President Reagan’s average numbers were higher, but not at this point in their respective administrations)

obamaapproval

(from here)

Show this to your favorite Republican and watch their head explode.:-)

By the way, THIS is why Secretary Hillary Clinton is running so close to President Obama. She knows what she is doing.😉

April 25, 2016 Posted by | political/social, politics, politics/social, social/political | , , , | Leave a comment

Tomorrow’s Primaries

Going into this primary season, I really thought that I’d be more interested in the Republican race. And there is something going on. Nevertheless, I am still interested in the Democratic race; that is a credit to the Sanders campaign.

I fully expect Hillary Clinton to pad her formidable lead in pledged delegates by 44 delegates: (calculator is here)

myguessapril26

Democratic Convention Watch gives a nice synopsis of what is likely to go down.

I think that the Clinton campaign is confident; they’ve already turned their fire on Donald Trump.

So my apologies to those who are “already sick of it”; I just …LOVE election season.

April 25, 2016 Posted by | political humor, politics, social/political | , , | Leave a comment

Primary predictions, VP picks, compromise and inequality

2016 Primary Race
Who is Hillary Clinton going to pick for her ticket? The vetting has quietly begun. I really don’t have a good feel for who should be picked.

As far as the primary results, all of this “x in a row” stuff is nonsense; who won what race was mostly about whether it was a caucus or a primary, what percentage of the voters were actual Democrats and the demographics of those showing up.

Though there has been some back and forth between Sanders supporters and Clinton supporters, things are actually worse on the Republican side. Friendships are ending over their choice.

Protesters Activists are passionate by definition. But they have to learn some restraint and some compromise. President Obama said as much.

Social This article talks about inequality at things like cruise ships, amusement parks and the like. Personally, I think that they conflate a few things here.

For one: there is inequality (e. g. paying on the order of ten times as much for the privilege of exclusivity) and offering comfort/experience as “an option if you want it”. Example: I am by no measure wealthy. But I basically doubled my (inexpensive) ticket price to sit in prime so I can have a better view of the game with…well, this will sound strange, fewer empty seats around me. As I age, I enjoy sitting down for the game more and more. IF the price difference isn’t too great, I’ll pay a little more to get my favorite seats (I like front row of the upper deck in most stadiums), or the back row of the lower deck in smaller stadiums.

But this nowhere near spending 4-5 times as much for luxury seats.

April 24, 2016 Posted by | political/social, politics, politics/social, Uncategorized | , , , , | Leave a comment

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