blueollie

Bad run, bad blood, faulty memories …

Ok, the day was beautiful. And I went for an 8 mile run through West Peoria and half of my Cornstalk 8.1 course. And I sucked. It took me 1:31:09 to cover the 8.3 mile course, 43:57 for the first 4 or so, 1:20 for the segment between and 45:51 for the final 4 (slightly more). Wow..no energy, though it was a perfect day. There are days like that.

Politics (what else?)
hillaryvsberniebro

David Horsey talks a bit about the unreasonable attacks on Hillary Clinton from Sanders supporters. Yes, it appears to be that way. And no, the national race is NOT tied, though a poll or two shows “margin of error” gap. Oh, it doesn’t really matter as the race is effectively over. But if you are a Clinton supporter and have any online presence at all, you’ll be bombarded with nonsense of all sorts.

Bottom line: we had an election (just a bit to go) and one side has an insurmountable lead, period. It is to Clinton’s credit that she is winning/has won fair and square. Though this blog article unfairly discounts the strength of Sen. Sanders’ message and his skill in delivering it, paragraphs 2-6 are excellent.

Now that we will be focusing on the general election, it should be noted that both sides have a nostalgia for the 1950’s: the high economic growth rate, relative equality and higher taxes entice the Democrats, and the regressive social order and apparent societal homogeneity appeal to Republicans.

And Donald Trump is being very shrewd in exploiting the Sanders-Clinton rift:

trumptweet1

trumptweet2

I think that Hillary Clinton will eventually win, but we won’t have very many easy breaths between now and the election. This will NOT be easy.

Bad Blood: this Republican tow truck driver refused to help a woman with a Bernie Sanders bumper sticker, though he was the one called to the stalled car on the highway. Sorry, but that is just too much. Legal…but unethical.

May 5, 2016 Posted by | political humor, political/social, politics, politics/social, running, social/political | , , , | Leave a comment

Onward to the general….

Yeah, I know; the Sanders campaign is a bit like:

He might have to be dragged off of the stage as his fundraising is going very well:

Clinton’s lead has shrunk from the 290’s to the 280’s and there are now fewer delegates in play. This is a bit like a football team being down 38-10 in the 4’th quarter and then going on a 5 minute drive..to end up with a field goal. They are closer, but they have a lesser chance of winning after the drive than they did prior to the drive starting.

Now Trump is now the face of the Republican party, at least at the top of the ticket.

So it is probably time to focus on the general and Clinton leads in most of the polls.

Odds: Clinton has gone from 1/3 to 5/12 (ever so slightly worse odds, but still a heavy favorite)

odds4may

And Obama’s job approval is above 50 percent and is roughly where Ronald Reagan’s was at this time in their respective administrations. That will help Clinton, I think.

approvalcenter

May 5, 2016 Posted by | 2016, political/social, politics, politics/social | , , | Leave a comment

Ok, it is Trump vs. Clinton

Oh yes, I know; Sanders won Indiana and took about 5-7 delegates off of Clinton’s lead of about 290-300. And there are 83 fewer delegates on the board, which makes Sander’s chances even more remote.

Let’s get the JV match up out of the way and bring on the varsity game!

Here are two good companion editorials:

Kathleen Parker on Trump’s attacks on women and Dana Milbank’s on Trump’s calculations with regards to these attacks.

This will be an interesting contest on many levels: Democrat vs. Republican, Men vs. Women, conventional politician vs. political novice, celebrity vs. cerebral policy wonk.

May 4, 2016 Posted by | political/social, politics/social | , , | Leave a comment

Democratic endgame and resentments…

Correspondents Dinner This is President Obama’s speech. It is hilarious.

Yes, President Obama said that, with regards to who will be doing the President’s speech at the dinner, we have no idea who she will be, and yes, Hillary Clinton has a 2 standard deviation lead on Donald Trump in the polls, and that translates into about a 93 percent chance of victory. and I will say that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are both well known, so perhaps there won’t be too many surprises.

However those backing the Sanders campaign have yet to concede. Oh, the signs are there; for example the Sanders campaign has reduced staff. Still, you see stuff like this from Sanders supporters like Robert Reich:

I’m getting lots of emails and notes on this page from those of you who say you’re feeling discouraged, given the diminishing likelihood of Bernie’s nomination. And from others of you who ask me what you should do in the event he doesn’t get the nomination. To both, I have these three suggestions:

1. First, continue to work hard to increase Bernie’s chance of success. (Despite what you hear in the media, he still does have a chance.) California’s June 7 primary will be critical.

2. If Bernie doesn’t win the nomination, you have to decide for yourself how active you’ll be in supporting Hillary Clinton. If Trump is the Republican nominee, my personal view is Hillary’s election to the presidency is absolutely essential to the future of this nation and the world.

Though I welcome point 2, point 1 is just plain irresponsible. Sanders is at “winning the lottery” degree of probability. He has to win something on the order of 60 percent of the remaining delegates, and he is trailing in California. Remember, just winning impressively is no longer good enough to catch up.

Hence, his “Bernie or bust” supporters are talking about “burning it all down”. Seriously? Ok, we’ve been through the PUMAS of 2008 and guess who won the general election? And yes, I was sore at Hillary Clinton..but then again, she didn’t trail as bad as Sanders trails. And now, look who I am backing!

Now some have become very bitter toward Senator Sanders. I can recommend this very long, but fact filled essay. All too often, Sanders supporters accuse you of being a “sell out” or “closet Republican” if you reject their plans which make…some rather rosy assumptions. In fact, the 2016 Democratic debate is really between the pragmatists and the idealists. Or views of the problems facing the United States and where we want to eventually end up are remarkably similar.

But as far as Sanders goes, this meme sums it up for me.

sanderspolitician

He is no revolutionary nor is he a saint (neither is Hillary Clinton). He is a politician and he is fighting to win..and politics can be bare knuckles at times.

May 1, 2016 Posted by | 2008 Election, Barack Obama, political/social, politics | , , | Leave a comment

Nostalgia and Victimhood

My victimhood and whining: well, it was overcast and sort of cool. I “ran” (slogged?) outside at a bout 11:30 mpm; I chose my Cornstalk 8.1 mile course (1:33 or thereabouts..this was time of day. I didn’t start my stopwatch).

About .6 miles into it (1 km) I turned onto Parkside and a university runner came running by; she had on cropped shorts and it was easy to see how athletic she was. She smiled and said “hi” right about the point where we were side by side and within a minute or so she was already at Main Street and I had advanced about half of the distance she did.

Oh well…what are you going to do? My options: quit or be content to manage the pace that I can manage.

That reminded me of this article: in politics, some politicians pine for a “return to…and earlier era”. Now that did NOT work with my parents; they grew up dirt poor during the depression era. Personally, I wouldn’t mind returning to an era when I was faster, stronger and my mind was a bit quicker, but I don’t think that a politician is going to help with that.:-) And I rather like the internet, modern medicine, and more tolerance.

Now, of course, some may really be pining for a less diverse time in US history; e. g. not putting up with accents, people who dress differently and who either worship no god at all, or worship differently. But seriously, what some politicians call “Real America” really isn’t. THAT might be what some are nostalgic for. Not me.:-)

Example: I like our first black president and am looking forward to electing our first female president this year.

But alas, those who might be on the losing end of an election are…well, “victims”. So they say. Hey, I know that losing an election hurts; I felt like crying after the 2004 loss. But instead I joined the local Democratic party and worked to help make 2008 different.

Another topic This is an interesting article as to why one should…ahem…be skeptical of skeptics.

April 28, 2016 Posted by | political/social, politics, politics/social, running, social/political | Leave a comment

The FAILS of desperation and other nonsense…

Workout notes: sore right shoulder so I took it sort of easy:

Weights: 5 sets of 10 pull ups (slowly)
rotator cuff
incline press: 10 x 135, 7 x 150, 10 x 135
military press: 2 sets of 10 x 40 standing (dumbbells), 10 x 45
rows: 3 sets of 10 x 40
head stand (sort of unsteady)
twist crunch (2 sets of 12), yoga leg lifts (2 sets of 10)

Walking: 52:10 for 33 laps of lane 1 on the track (just over 4 miles) 12:57/12:55/12:30/12:15/1:30

Later: 2 miles with the group.

Posts and FAILS

Dennis Hastert: former Speaker of the House and convicted child molester. Note his wheelchair: an attempt to garner sympathy?

On less severe levels
Ted Cruz: syas that Carly Fiorina would be his running mate if he is the nominee. This helps…how?

Our Republican friends: some of them are claiming:

cartoonsprove

So, now cartoons “prove” things. No wonder so few scientists are Republicans.

But some Sanders supportersare equally delusional:

Imagine, if you will, a vocal and disenfranchised block of voters disgusted with their party’s primary process and the anointed nominee, after watching the man who embodied their hopes and dreams being cast aside.

Imagine their calling for him to run as an independent, to stand for them and against an establishment that has been in the driver’s seat far too long and does not represent their interests.
I give you independent third-party candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

“Disenfranchised”? So, your candidate losing an election is called being “disenfranchised”? LOL.:-)

Now for some WIN

27aprilodds

Hillary Clinton: 1/3; those are the best odds yet. Yes, she had a good night, losing only Rhode Island and piling up massive margins in Pennsylvania, Delaware and Maryland. She padded her lead by 53 pledged delegates and now leads by 297. We are now at a place where Sanders needs to win on the order of 65 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to draw even…not going to happen.

Donald Trump: crushed Cruz and now has a massive lead.

April 28, 2016 Posted by | political/social, politics, social/political, walking, weight training | , , , | Leave a comment

Time to carry Sanders out on his shield?

If polls or demographics are a any guide, Hillary Clinton stands to pad her pledged delegate lead by another 40-50 (or more!) tonight, and she seems to poised to win at least 4 of the 5 states (possibly lose in Rhode Island). Even more telling: there will be far fewer delegates left for Sanders to catch up with:

silver-bernieacela-41

Nate Silver’s graph shows the percentage of the remaining pledged delegates that each candidate must win to secure a majority of pledged delegates. And after tonight, that number could well shoot to 65 percent for Sanders.

It may not be a knockout, but it is poised to be another 10-8 round for Clinton.

April 26, 2016 Posted by | political/social, politics | | Leave a comment

Obama’s approval exceeds Reagan’s (slightly, at this point in their respective administrations)

It is clear that President Obama’s job approval ratings exceeds those of President George W. Bush. But did you know that, at this time in their respective administrations, Obama’s approval ratings slightly exceeds Reagan’s? (yes, President Reagan’s average numbers were higher, but not at this point in their respective administrations)

obamaapproval

(from here)

Show this to your favorite Republican and watch their head explode.:-)

By the way, THIS is why Secretary Hillary Clinton is running so close to President Obama. She knows what she is doing.😉

April 25, 2016 Posted by | political/social, politics, politics/social, social/political | , , , | Leave a comment

Primary predictions, VP picks, compromise and inequality

2016 Primary Race
Who is Hillary Clinton going to pick for her ticket? The vetting has quietly begun. I really don’t have a good feel for who should be picked.

As far as the primary results, all of this “x in a row” stuff is nonsense; who won what race was mostly about whether it was a caucus or a primary, what percentage of the voters were actual Democrats and the demographics of those showing up.

Though there has been some back and forth between Sanders supporters and Clinton supporters, things are actually worse on the Republican side. Friendships are ending over their choice.

Protesters Activists are passionate by definition. But they have to learn some restraint and some compromise. President Obama said as much.

Social This article talks about inequality at things like cruise ships, amusement parks and the like. Personally, I think that they conflate a few things here.

For one: there is inequality (e. g. paying on the order of ten times as much for the privilege of exclusivity) and offering comfort/experience as “an option if you want it”. Example: I am by no measure wealthy. But I basically doubled my (inexpensive) ticket price to sit in prime so I can have a better view of the game with…well, this will sound strange, fewer empty seats around me. As I age, I enjoy sitting down for the game more and more. IF the price difference isn’t too great, I’ll pay a little more to get my favorite seats (I like front row of the upper deck in most stadiums), or the back row of the lower deck in smaller stadiums.

But this nowhere near spending 4-5 times as much for luxury seats.

April 24, 2016 Posted by | political/social, politics, politics/social, Uncategorized | , , , , | Leave a comment

The price of winning a primary: not gloating

We went through this in 2008. Barack Obama won a bitterly contested primary against Hillary Clinton. Yes, Obama was gracious and..yes, Clinton surrogates took viscous shots at us. We were called “latte drinking, Prius driving..”; we were of course, duped by silver tongued oration, etc. etc.

Now I am on “Team Clinton” and …even worse, I am on social media. So, I (and many of my Clinton supporting friends) have been called dupes, sell-outs, idiots, uninformed, uncaring, small thinking, smug (for going by what the math said) and that is just what I can write in public.:-) Oh yes, people like Paul Krugman were accused of seeking a job in the Clinton cabinet.

But the reality is that we are going to need all of the votes we can get in November.

So, I’ll have to bite my tongue a bit and keep the snark to a minimum.

Oh yes, the primary isn’t officially over and Sanders will win a few more states (I predict that he’ll win Rhode Island and Delaware next Tuesday) but I expect Clinton to add about 30 more delegates to her lead, which is about 240. Even more importantly, pledged delegates are coming off of the table for Sanders to catch up with.

Of course, if you say that, the Bern Victims enthusiastic Sanders supporters will claim that you are a dupe who is falling for media lies. Or something.

Damn…not sure I CAN bite my tongue.:-)

April 20, 2016 Posted by | political/social, politics, politics/social | | Leave a comment

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 1,192 other followers