blueollie

Failure Part II (but not that big of a deal this time)

Workout notes:
rotator cuff
pull ups: 10-10-10-10-5-10 (longer rest helped me get 10, rather than 5, for my final set)
bench press: 10 x 135, 1 x 185, 1 x 195, 205: FAIL…couldn’t get it off of my chest. 195 felt easy too.

incline press: 9 x 150, 10 x 135
military press: 7 x 50 dumbbell standing, 10 x 90 barbell standing, 10 x 200 machine
rows: 3 sets of 10 x 110

head stand
crunch (24), twist crunch (12), yoga leg lifts (10)

Very wet 4.2 mile walk; I got caught in an absolute downpour in the first mile, then the rain mostly went away.

Why I tried a max: I finally had people to spot me..I was more tired than 2 days ago. I was surprised at how hard 205 felt; I am just not used to it.

Politics:

President Obama endorses Sec. Hillary Clinton

I was going to go on a rant and post a collection of stupid Bernie Sanders memes (via some of his less-than-bright supporters) but all candidates have dummies voting for them.

hillarytweet

Though I did this as a joke, I sometimes wonder if I do a candidate any good by showing open support for them or..in my case..they’d rather I’d be quiet. In fact, I went as far as to ASK one and was told: “please, write the letter”. I did and got a compliment.

June 9, 2016 Posted by | Barack Obama, politics, politics/social, social/political | | Leave a comment

Democratic endgame and resentments…

Correspondents Dinner This is President Obama’s speech. It is hilarious.

Yes, President Obama said that, with regards to who will be doing the President’s speech at the dinner, we have no idea who she will be, and yes, Hillary Clinton has a 2 standard deviation lead on Donald Trump in the polls, and that translates into about a 93 percent chance of victory. and I will say that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are both well known, so perhaps there won’t be too many surprises.

However those backing the Sanders campaign have yet to concede. Oh, the signs are there; for example the Sanders campaign has reduced staff. Still, you see stuff like this from Sanders supporters like Robert Reich:

I’m getting lots of emails and notes on this page from those of you who say you’re feeling discouraged, given the diminishing likelihood of Bernie’s nomination. And from others of you who ask me what you should do in the event he doesn’t get the nomination. To both, I have these three suggestions:

1. First, continue to work hard to increase Bernie’s chance of success. (Despite what you hear in the media, he still does have a chance.) California’s June 7 primary will be critical.

2. If Bernie doesn’t win the nomination, you have to decide for yourself how active you’ll be in supporting Hillary Clinton. If Trump is the Republican nominee, my personal view is Hillary’s election to the presidency is absolutely essential to the future of this nation and the world.

Though I welcome point 2, point 1 is just plain irresponsible. Sanders is at “winning the lottery” degree of probability. He has to win something on the order of 60 percent of the remaining delegates, and he is trailing in California. Remember, just winning impressively is no longer good enough to catch up.

Hence, his “Bernie or bust” supporters are talking about “burning it all down”. Seriously? Ok, we’ve been through the PUMAS of 2008 and guess who won the general election? And yes, I was sore at Hillary Clinton..but then again, she didn’t trail as bad as Sanders trails. And now, look who I am backing!

Now some have become very bitter toward Senator Sanders. I can recommend this very long, but fact filled essay. All too often, Sanders supporters accuse you of being a “sell out” or “closet Republican” if you reject their plans which make…some rather rosy assumptions. In fact, the 2016 Democratic debate is really between the pragmatists and the idealists. Or views of the problems facing the United States and where we want to eventually end up are remarkably similar.

But as far as Sanders goes, this meme sums it up for me.

sanderspolitician

He is no revolutionary nor is he a saint (neither is Hillary Clinton). He is a politician and he is fighting to win..and politics can be bare knuckles at times.

May 1, 2016 Posted by | 2008 Election, Barack Obama, political/social, politics | , , | Leave a comment

Michigan and Mississippi primaries today (and other topics)

Workout notes Too pretty to run inside, so I did my hilly 8.1 Cornstalk course. I didn’t time myself, but I did leave at 7:15 and finished at 8:43 and didn’t cough that much afterward. Wonderful run, even if it was too damned slow.

Illinois Football: I am seeking to upgrade my season tickets; I’ll know in a month if I can. There may be more renewals due to the hiring of a new, high profile coach.

Personal I don’t know where this comes from, but when I feel that I’ve been wronged, I feel “unfulfilled” if I haven’t told the other party off, or told them off in a vigorous enough manner. That is, of course, counterproductive and illogical.

Personal Dammit, I miss “my girls”!

Mathematics/Statistics: Here is what a p-value means: a p-value is the probability that one would observe the given observed data, IF the null hypothesis were true. Example: Suppose you assumed that a coin was fair and that the probability of obtaining a head on a single toss is .5. So if one tossed a coin 10 times and obtained 8 heads, the probability of obtaining 8 more more heads, given that the coin was fair, is 0.0546875. THAT is the definition of p-value. Too many do not understand this.

Primaries: according to fivethirtyeight.com, Hillary Clinton has a 99 percent chance of winning the Michigan and of winning the Mississippi primaries. Trump has a 92 percent chance of winning Michigan today.

As far as the odds for the general election:

8marchodds

So Hillary Clinton’s odds are better than they’ve ever been, though Sanders’ odds of being the nominee scooted from being a 14-1 underdog to a 12-1? That is curious.

And noted that Hillary Clinton is running “close” to President Obama. Here is why:

8marchpresidents Right now President Obama is at 49 percent approval in the Gallup and is riding slightly above the historical trend, and well, well above where President Bush was at this time in his presidency. Oh, don’t worry; your favorite ranting right wing uncle won’t believe it.🙂

March 8, 2016 Posted by | Barack Obama, politics, politics/social, running | , , , , , | Leave a comment

trouble sleeping…

I’ve been weird; I had trouble falling asleep (perhaps I ought to try to read one of my old math papers?) so I gave myself an extra hour.

So I swam in the morning and left my back pack in my locker to force myself to the gym at lunch time: “no gym” = “no lunch”.

Swim: 1000 free, 5 x (100 fins, 100 pull, 100 free), 2 x (25 fly, 25 back), 50 side. That was 2650 yds. I got pushed by two speedy runners who were doing swim workouts (Religion Professor and Mechanical Engineering). I shared a lane with Mike for a while too.

Weight: 184.5 before swimming.

Lifting (over lunch); pull ups: 15-15-10-10 (strong)
rotator cuff
incline press: 10 x 135, 7 x 150 (weak), 10 x 140
military: dumbbell, standing: 3 sets of 10 x 40
rows: Hammer Machine: 3 sets of 10 x 200
abs (twist crunch, yoga leg lifts, 2 sets each, moving bridge),
headstand (easier on the mat on the floor than on the soft mat.

Comment The rhetoric over replacing the late Antonin Scalia is absurd. Of course, the Senate does have the right (duty) to “advise and consent” but that doesn’t mean “refuse to consider” before the President even nominates someone.

And this “election year” stuff is nonsense: President Obama won reelection handily and his term is 4 years, not 3.

Now if the Republicans were saying “ok, let’s see who you nominate; we are willing to work with you” and they negotiate a moderate nomination that they can live with. that is fine with me. I’d like to Sen. McConnell supply President Obama with a realistic short list of “we can live with these” names.

February 15, 2016 Posted by | Barack Obama, politics, swimming, weight training | | Leave a comment

Those who need to try harder…

Workout notes: first, I weighed 190.0 prior to swimming (a LOT of coffee beforehand) and 187.5 afterward. Yes, I ate too much meat last night.
Swim: I had slightly sore shoulders last night. But 3100 yards was no problem:
500 easy, then: 5 x 100 alt fist/free on 2:10 (1:48-1:52), 5 x 100 25 catch up, 75 free on 2:10 (1:50ish), 5 x 100 alt. drill, free (front, 3g), 5 x 100 (25 fly, 75 free) on 2:10 (1:55 each).
Then 200 back, 100 side, then 100 pull, 100 free, 100 pull.

Run: riverplex track, 32 laps of the outer lane in 39:52 (10:49, 10:09, 10:02, 8:51). At the advertised 7 1/3 laps to the mile, this was 9:14 pace with miles being 9:55, 9:18, 9:12, 8:12.
There was an older guy in lane 3 who wouldn’t let me pass him; he picked it up every time and mostly stayed just a step ahead of me. I think it was fun for both of us; I gave him a “I’ve got 1 lap to go” warning at the end.

Issues
Jerry Coyne weighs in on why the study of literature appears to be waning. This sort of dovetails into Steven Pinker’s claim that literature may have helped make society less violent by allowing us to empathize with others.

US Sailors: caught and released by Iran. Yes, I like a President who bends over backwards to avoid a violent response.

Trying harder I’ve kept up with the St. Louis losing the Rams back to Los Angeles story. There was some anger and self pity as well as sober self-reflection.

One view I am reading is “wow, ST. Louis went out of its way to try to keep the Rams; Oakland and San Diego did nothing and yet they still have their teams. That doesn’t make sense”.

Well, it might. San Diego and Oakland are probably better markets; Oakland for being in the Bay Area and Sand Diego is a more prosperous region. True, the Rams sold out when they were good, and the crowds grew sparse as the team got worse. But compare this to, say, the almost always mediocre Bears. Their tickets were always more in demand, even when the team stunk. It is a much bigger market.

Of course, there is the caveat that there was a reason the Rams left Los Angeles to begin with. I remember making a game in 1984; the Rams were a playoff team that featured 2000+ yard running back Erick Dickerson. And yet tickets were plentiful and I had a whole row of seats to myself; the announced attendance was 47,800. A losing Rams team got more than that in St. Louis.

But evidently they see potential.

January 13, 2016 Posted by | Barack Obama, education, NFL, politics, politics/social, running, swimming | Leave a comment

President Obama’s hard hitting State of the Union address

You can watch it and read the text here. Some of it was traditional. But much of it hit key points:

1. He attacked some of the extremist rhetoric that we are hearing on the campaign trail, such as Trump’s proposal to ban Muslim refugees and immigrants or Cruz’s proposal to “carpet bomb”.
2. He called out the climate change deniers big time: “we didn’t deny that Sputnik was up there but instead…” rose to the challenge.
3. He pointed out that terrorism, while being a safety issue, isn’t an existential threat. And the Cold War is over.
4. He pointed out that much of the strength of the United States comes from places OTHER THAN the military. Example: we helped lead the way in saving lives with the ebola crisis. The respect that we get from the world should not stem from a fear of being bullied.
5. He also called out gerrymandering (politicians selecting voters rather than the other way around).

I liked it, but of course, Republican heads are exploding.

January 13, 2016 Posted by | Barack Obama, politics, politics/social | | Leave a comment

Why conservatives get called out so much

Some conservative made this cartoon about college students being coddled and “protected” from competing ideas on college campuses:

cribforcollegestudents

On one hand, I agree that it is dumb to think that college students are qualified to dictate campus policy and some go to far in protecting the “sensitive ears” of those who are deemed to be part of “oppressed classes” and, at times, we don’t fact check our liberal friends because of “solidarity”.

On the other hand, look at what is over the crib.

There is a Hillary Clinton campaign logo; in fact Hillary Clinton is viewed as being “too establishment” for many liberals.

And notice the Barack Obama campaign logo. In fact, President Obama said this:

This is the heart of what Obama said:

“I’ve heard of some college campuses where they don’t want to have a guest speaker who is too conservative, or they don’t want to read a book if it had language that is offensive to African Americans or somehow sends a demeaning signal towards women,” Obama said Monday while speaking at a town hall meeting at North High School in Des Moines. “I’ve got to tell you, I don’t agree with that either — that you when you become students at colleges, you have to be coddled and protected from different points of view. Anybody who comes to speak to you and you disagree with, you should have an argument with them, but you shouldn’t silence them by saying you can’t come because I’m too sensitive to hear what you have to say.”

Obama, who spent just more than a decade teaching constitutional law at the University of Chicago, said what the vast majority of college faculty think about intellectual freedom and freedom of expression on campus: Ideas need not be popular, palatable or even easy to digest to merit discussion. College is a place where ideas of all kinds should be openly explored. Theories are, after all, like viruses; they build on one another.

Conservatives get called out because many of their ideas are wrong.🙂

But hey, I’ll borrow from the style of one prominent conservative:

Wonder why they hire such untalented cartoonist; he is a real dummy who doesn’t know what he is talking about. No wander they are failing!

December 3, 2015 Posted by | Barack Obama, hillary clinton, social/political | , | Leave a comment

Obama, Putin, Republicans and Gohmert

President Obama landed a body blow to the current crop of Republican presidential candidates:

And no, being asked about your tax plan numbers not adding up is not an unfair debate question.

Louie Gohmert: he said that support to “impeach President Obama” was not widespread. The way to read this: remember the district that he represents (in East Texas) is a bit like this:

horseyimpeachobama

His constituents live in a bubble where they KNOW that “everyone” (save a few miscreants) wants President Obama to be impeached.

November 3, 2015 Posted by | Barack Obama, politics, politics/social | | Leave a comment

Still recovering (and some cool Obama smackdowns…)

Workout notes: 2000 yard swim (500, 5 x 50 drill (fins), 50 free, 8 x 100: 4 on 2:05 (1:47-48 each), 4 on 2:10 (1:51-53, got tired), 200 strokes. T
Then a 5K walk (Lower Bradley Park) then light yoga; included headstand and some “low crow”.

I am not “quite” over my cold but getting there.

I’ve been busy with actuarial math (yuck). I have noticed that Canada put the Liberal Party back in power (here and here) though their Liberal party is really a “left of center” party by Canada standards. Then again, their “conservatives” would be “US Democrats”.

So, I’ll post some fluff: my favorite Obama highlights

Trump roast

Obama’s 2016 jokes

Smack down 1

Smack down 2

Smack down 3

October 21, 2015 Posted by | Barack Obama, swimming, walking | , | Leave a comment

Clinton and the TPP…meh..

Hmmm, so today Hillary Clinton said this:

In an interview Wednesday with PBS’s Judy Woodruff in Iowa, Clinton said, “As of today, I am not in favor of what I have learned about it.

The former secretary of state and 2016 Democratic presidential front-runner cited the “high bar” she set earlier in the year as the reason she was giving the deal a thumbs down.

“I have said from the very beginning that we had to have a trade agreement that would create good American jobs, raise wages and advance our national security and I still believe that is the high bar we have to meet,” Clinton said.

She added: “I don’t believe it’s going to meet the high bar I have set.”

Emphasis mine. Note how artful this statement is; it has qualifications. However this TPP proposal is a bit different than it was at first, as even “lukewarm critic” Paul Krugman noted:

What I know so far: pharma is mad because the extension of property rights in biologics is much shorter than it wanted, tobacco is mad because it has been carved out of the dispute settlement deal, and Rs in general are mad because the labor protection stuff is stronger than expected. All of these are good things from my point of view. I’ll need to do much more homework once the details are clearer.

But it’s interesting that what we’re seeing so far is a harsh backlash from the right against these improvements. I find myself thinking of Grossman and Helpman’s work on the political economy of free trade agreements, in which they conclude, based on a highly stylized but nonetheless interesting model of special interest politics, that

An FTA is most likely to politically viable exactly when it would be socially harmful.

The TPP looks better than it did, which infuriates much of Congress.

So, I wonder…this woman chooses her words very carefully. Of course, Sanders supporters are declaring victory (“See, she’s feeling THE BURN”) but, well, as far as the deal goes, I am ambivalent. I suppose if I had to choose, I’d trust President Obama here, and yes, I know that means going against the knee jerk anti-trade woo-woos..though this deal really isn’t that much about trade.

So, on this issue, I am at odds with Sec. Clinton. Sort of. It really isn’t THAT important to me, either way.

October 8, 2015 Posted by | Barack Obama, economics, economy, hillary clinton, social/political | , | Leave a comment

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 1,203 other followers