College Football Predictions

Texas vs. Oklahoma in Dallas (yes, I watched this in person a couple of times)

OU is favored by 8; Texas has a 26.7 percent chance via ESPN. OU has had a couple of hard fought wins: 37-27 over a tough Iowa State team, and an overtime win over Army. They’ve blown away UCLA, Florida Atlantic (good record last year), and Baylor. UT has strong high profile wins over TCU and USC; and tough wins over Kansas State and Tulsa (got leads and let the other team come back) and a loss at Maryland.

I have to pick OU; they do appear to be better but, UT is stronger than the teams that gave OU trouble, so I predict a close, rockem, sockem game. Pick OU to win, UT to cover.

Navy -3 over Air Force; this is a mismatch by the ESPN power index which gives Navy only a 40.3 percent shot at winning. We’ve seen that before. Air Force has lost 3 in a row..albeit to teams that aren’t as good as the teams that SMU lost to. Navy lost by 1 in overtime to SMU, defeated an FCS foe easily and has a nice win over Memphis..and a blowout loss to Hawaii in the opener.

It is at Air Force. But ESPN power index be damned; on paper Navy appears better. It should be close. I just have a bad feeling about this..but is this a fan’s pessimism? I have to pick the Falcons to win..and yes, cover. It would not surprise me if this went into overtime or was won on a break.

Notre Dame -6 at Virginia Tech. The ESPN index has ND with a 64.6 percent chance. Va. Tech had an easy win over Florida State, a blowout win over an FCS team and they creamed a good Duke team…and…had a very embarrassing loss at Old Dominion. ND had an unexpectedly close win vs. Ball State, a tough win vs. Vanderbilt and 3 impressive performances (Michigan, Stanford and against a decent Wake Forest team on the road). ND appears to be rolling but Tech will play them hard. Still, maybe 7 points? I pick ND to cover …barely.

Illinois at Rutgers: battle for a Big Ten win? Rutgers has been dreadful. Period. Illinois..well…Illini fans are crowing about..a 39 point loss at home to Penn State? Oh goodness.
The Illini opened as 1.5 point favorites and now the line has moved to 4.5 to 5 points; the ESPN index says 62.8 percent. But this is the Illini’s first road game of the year and last year, they laid an egg on the road. The Illini can run the ball well..but cannot stop anyone.

Rutgers seems to have gotten worse from last year and the Illini, well, aren’t good, but aren’t quite as dreadful. Maybe the Illini win by, oh, 7?

So my picks: straight up: OU, AF, ND, Illini. Cover: Texas, AF, ND, Illini.

What I predicted last weekend:

Texas -9 at Kansas State (81.4 percent UT by ESPN)
K-state has gotten blown away by power 5 competition and has only a narrow win over an FCS team and a comfortable win vs. UTSA. UT has done much better. BUT after two big wins in high profile games with OU looming, is this a trap game?

UT to win; K-State..a bad cover.

Stanford + 5.5 at ND. Don’t know; Battle of undefeated teams; Stanford has beaten SDST (only loss), USC (not so hot) and had some good bounces vs. Oregon. ND: defeated Michigan, 2 narrow wins against “meh” competition and a blowout win against a not-so-good team.

I’d have to say that Stanford’s resume is better, though ND usually wins this game in South Bend. Got to go with my mind, not my heart.

Stanford to win and cover.

Win: UT, Stanford.
Cover: K-state, Stanford.

My season record so far: 12-6 straight up, 7-10 vs. the spread. Being a fan of these teams, I am prone to betting emotionally …in either direction. If I were to bet real money, I wouldn’t bet on these teams.

October 4, 2018 - Posted by | college football

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