College football: week 4

From my Facebook:

Penn State at Illinois: yes, you can get in for under 10 dollars.

Line: PSU by 28, ESPN: PSU has a 95.2 percent chance of winning. Key factor: PSU hosts Ohio State the next weekend. Guess: lack of interest plus PSU going vanilla and perhaps declining a late score keeps the score down to, say, a 24 point spread.

Note: Illinois held off Kent State to win 31-24 (Kent was first and goal at the Illini 5 with 2 minutes to go; PSU beat Kent 63-10.

TCU at Texas: interesting mismatch between the ESPN power index (gives UT a 60.7 percent chance of winning) and the spread (favors TCU by 3). UT is coming off a big win vs. USC; TCU lost to Ohio State (off of defensive TDs).

I do not see UT winning this game.
Note: get in price is about 41 dollars here..interesting given TCU is a better team than USC.

Notre Dame at Wake Forrest: ND favored by 7.5, ESPN index is 70.9 percent for ND.

Wake had a tough loss to Boston College this season. Frankly, I see another competitive game for ND…narrow win.

Navy at SMU: sort of a mismatch with the ESPN power index (Navy: 50.5 percent chance..but is favored by 6.5)

SMU is winless and has gotten lit up by good teams: North Texas (who IS good this year; ask Arkansas who they blew out), TCU and Michigan. Navy has one loss and is coming off an easy game vs. Lehigh.

Will SMU have anything in the tank for this one? I think that Navy wins and covers.

Win: Penn State, TCU, ND, Navy
Spread: Illinois + 28, TCU -3, Wake plus 7.5, Navy -6.5

Season record: 9-3 straight up, 6-5 vs. point spread (no spread for one game)

September 20, 2018 Posted by | college football, football | Leave a comment