blueollie

Statistical Illiteracy

One of things I am most amused by are approval ratings polls. If you follow the social media of Trump haters (I do not approve of him as president), you’ll hear that his ratings are dropping..always dropping…

But Trump supporters will crow about his ratings…going up and you’ll even hear stuff like this from Trump himself:

Here is what they are linking to:

Yep, he popped above Obama …THIS POLL. Note how the TownHall screen shot managed to put that box right over the recent polls.

But what about those other polls?

Real Clear Politics polling average; (41.8 as of this writing)

FiveThirtyEight.com (40.6 approval as of this writing)

Trump vs. Obama in the Fivethirtyeight average

What is going on:

Even an average of polls shows some “fluctuation”; the polls go up and down with time, even when the trend is steady. This is due to randomness of sampling and perhaps some sample error. So, if in one poll, Trump is 38 in one poll and 40 in the next, his supporters say “Trump is gaining in the polls”. But then if he goes to 37 in the next one, Trump opponents cry “he is dropping like a rock!”

If you hang around Trump opponents, you hear only about the drops, and if you hang around supporters, he hear only about the gains.

Sam Wang got it right:

Reality: Trump is at about 41 percent approval (low for an economy in this shape) and there will be a few minor fluctuations in either direction that don’t mean much, if anything.

Workout notes; sore shoulder special swim: 250 free, 250 fins, 250 pull, 250 free, 250 free/back, 250 breast/free, 100 fins drill/swim, 100 free, 100 drill/swim, 100 swim, 100 pull, 100 swim 50 side, 50 swim. Just got it in; protected the shoulder.

treadmill run: 5 minute froggy to get to 44:50 for 4 miles, then walking (17 mpm, 16 mpm, 14 mpm, 13:30 ) to get to 59:40 for 5 miles. Foot did ok until the faster walking. Still ok.

April 3, 2018 Posted by | political/social, running, statistics, swimming | , , , , | Leave a comment