blueollie

How did this happen

If someone told me that I’d be awake at this hour and had spent so much time conversing with 3 of my favorite women friends (my wife is in bed; she was an election judge), I would have said “well, you are celebrating with them”.

But alas, no.

worstcase

This was my “worst case” map. We won Nevada, but probably lost Wisconsin and perhaps Michigan and Pennsylvania as well. Yeah, I know that all three states are still “too close to call” and IF she wins all three…well, that isn’t going to happen.

But even if she does and somehow squeaks by on the narrowest of margins, I have some soul searching to do.

1. Models I talked about this here and Nate Silver warned everyone that Hillary’s lead in the swing states was much more fragile than Pres. O’s was in 2012. A small shift, or just plain polling error could tip them all to Trump *at the same time*; the assumption that the states were somehow independent entities (or close to it) was a fatal one.

2. Polls. Ok, the polls, on a national scale, weren’t that far off. But they WERE just a bit off in each close state IN THE SAME DIRECTION. And what about the “likely voter” stuff: I suppose those Trump voters did show up after all.

3. Ground Game Trump showed contempt for the sophisticated tactics that Obama used and instead said it was Obama’s strength as a candidate that did the trick.

And seriously, who answers their phone in this day and age?

4. Assumptions about society It is early…heck, the race isn’t OFFICIALLY decided as yet, but two things stuck out to me:

a. Clinton appeared to underperform Obama with minority voters:

There’s going to be a lot of talk about white voters after the election, but looking at the exit polls, that’s not the full story. A big part of the story is that Clinton underperformed Obama with blacks and Hispanics. Clinton is winning only 88 percent of the black vote. Exit polls in 2012 had Obama at 93 percent. Clinton is only at 65 percent among Latinos. Obama won 71 percent of them.

I can see this with blacks as the candidate was white. But what is the deal with Latinos, given how badly Trump insulted them (us)? I have a conjecture that I don’t want to face up to, but I’ll need more data first.

Then there is this: women voters. Really?

“College-educated white women voted for Clinton 51 percent to 45 percent, but non-college-educated white women voted for Trump 62 percent to 34 percent. That difference is nothing but stark and something we saw inklings of in October, when I wrote about how many Republican women were willing to overlook Trump’s history of sexual harassment allegations and derogatory comments about women. Partisanship is a hell of a drug.”

I wonder if this really isn’t partisanship as much as the following: I sometimes cringed when I saw Clinton play up the “women card”. I told myself “it is ok; this will inspire women to work for her” but I still cringed; I never saw the academic feminism that one sees on a college campus to be overly popular outside of that very narrow circle. I wondered just how offended many women really were by some of what Trump said (yes, the women I hang out with were, but…)

trump_talk_dirty_shirt

Some of the shirts I saw…like this one…made me think “who in the hell would be comfortable wearing that..and evidently millions are.

Yes, I know that political correctness has gone too far: once another liberal accused me of bigotry for even suggesting that, say, in a gang shower situation, many (most?) genetic females wouldn’t be comfortable showering with a “transfemale” who still had a penis. And yes, too many liberals seem to dismiss the threat of religious extremism if it comes from a “minority within the US” (such as Islam).

But goodness..some of what Trump said.

And what in the hell…don’t people value their stock portfolios?

Oh well, I guess that I was wrong about many, many things. There are more of “them” than “us”…I thought Obama getting elected and then reelected proved that wrong. I thought that Obama’s relatively strong approval ratings proved that wrong. It didn’t.

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November 9, 2016 - Posted by | political/social, politics, politics/social, social/political | , ,

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