Pre-election Sunday….

Ok, the time for spinning is over and what do the numbers say? Here are the betting lines:


They range from 3/10 to 1/5 for Clinton, with most at 1/4. This is a slight change from last night, but not much of a change.

Here is Upshot’s list of models:


And here are several prediction maps (I’ve put the source in green lettering). This is the list (from most favorable to Trump to most favorable to Clinton)

Election Projection: 284
Fivethirtyeight (Nate Silver) 293
Electoral vote: 317
Benchmark Politics: 322
Predictionwise 323
Princeton (Sam Wang) 323
Upshot (New York Times) 326

I’ve put together the maps, and labeled the source in green.

Some notes: Benchmark uses more data than just polling (e. g. economic indicators, history) and Predictionwise factors in betting lines for each state. And of course, each model factors the various polls a bit differently (e. g., how does one weight older polls? What track record does that polling outfit have? Is it a “likely voter” model or a “registered voter” model?)

But if you notice, the projected Electoral College count doesn’t vary that much; much of the dispute is in the “confidence interval”. Nate Silver’s model has a wider confidence interval (which can vary from a narrow Trump win to a Clinton landslide) and Sam Wang’s has a narrower confidence interval; I talk about this a bit more here.


November 6, 2016 - Posted by | political/social, politics, politics/social, statistics |


  1. […] many, I thought that Hillary Clinton would win but was aware that she was not in as strong of a position as Obama was in during the 2012 […]

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  2. […] of models based on polls had her as a heavy favorite. BUT, not all of them, and these were MODELS. Nate Silver game Trump a 34 percent chance (roughly the probability of a below average NBA player missing a free shot). And the predictions […]

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