blueollie

Election again

I am not as comfortable as I was in 2012, because in 2012, I was more plugged into the Obama campaign than I am the Clinton one. This article by Jim Messina (Obama’s campaign manager) explains why this matters.

I do know this (Electoral Vote)

2012vs2016

On the other hand:

natesilvertweet

But then again, Sam Wang from Princeton:

Around here, trick-or-treat just ended. Or so we think. Actually, there’s one more trick: the Senate.

Everyone’s up in arms over this Comey/email thing. As I suggested would be the case, it’s not affecting the Presidential race in any meaningful way. That cake is baked. However, like any good thriller, there’s a fake ending – the election next Tuesday. After that comes actual governing.

The odds overwhelmingly favor a Hillary Clinton victory, as you can see above. However, think about how the opening stages of a Clinton Administration will go. For Cabinet and federal court confirmations Senate consent is necessary, and in our polarized age is easily withheld.

Remember I said that a Clinton Meta-Margin of +3% is the breakeven point for a Democratic Senate? That’s just about where the race is. Either party could easily end up in control – things are on a knife edge.

Well, we’ll find out soon enough. My (untutored) opinion: too many likely voters have too much invested in stocks for Trump to win. Who wants to tank their investments?

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November 3, 2016 - Posted by | political/social, politics, politics/social |

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