blueollie

1 week to go!

Well, Clinton isn’t as far ahead as I had hoped; actually she is a position similar to that of the Cleveland baseball team: up 3-2 with 2 home games to go. Cleveland is given a 76 percent chance of winning the series, and Clinton is given a 73 percent chance in the “polls only” 538 model. Upshot has her at just under 90 percent, with the following summary of other models:

upshotsummarynov12016

Electoral Vote and Election Projection are in agreement as to the projected state count.

electoralvote1nov2016

electionprojection1nov2016

The sportsbooks: the odds have tightened somewhat, with Clinton’s ranging from 3/8 to 1/4; most are 4/11 (73 percent)

odds1nov2016

You can see where this is as compared to 2012: Obama’s odds may have been (mostly) a tick higher, though Clinton’s map looks stronger and she is higher in other models. Call it “comparable”, though she isn’t where Obama was in 2008.

Advertisements

November 1, 2016 - Posted by | political/social, politics, politics/social | ,

No comments yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: