blueollie

So, will the debate have much effect on the race?

My guess: no. Sam Wang explains why. Here is part of it:

Trump could take the lead, but it would go against what we know so far. I would characterize the race as being very close, but not as uncertain as you might think. Why? The unappreciated story of 2016 is the amazing stability of public opinion. As measured by national polls, 2016 marks the most stable Presidential race in >60 years of modern polling. At the level of state-poll-based analysis, the stability is even greater. This basic fact should inform all analysis.

Is this a stable race? Here is a chart of Upshot’s “likelihood of winning” metric:

upshot26sept2016

And their links to other models:

upshotlistofmodels26sep2016

How the bookies currently see it (Hillary Clinton slightly lower than a 2-1 favorite)

completeodds25july

And the poll aggregator maps:

electionprojection26sep2016

Election Projection

electoralvote26sep2016

Electoral Vote

September 26, 2016 - Posted by | political/social, politics, politics/social |

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