So, will the debate have much effect on the race?

My guess: no. Sam Wang explains why. Here is part of it:

Trump could take the lead, but it would go against what we know so far. I would characterize the race as being very close, but not as uncertain as you might think. Why? The unappreciated story of 2016 is the amazing stability of public opinion. As measured by national polls, 2016 marks the most stable Presidential race in >60 years of modern polling. At the level of state-poll-based analysis, the stability is even greater. This basic fact should inform all analysis.

Is this a stable race? Here is a chart of Upshot’s “likelihood of winning” metric:


And their links to other models:


How the bookies currently see it (Hillary Clinton slightly lower than a 2-1 favorite)


And the poll aggregator maps:


Election Projection


Electoral Vote

September 26, 2016 - Posted by | political/social, politics, politics/social |

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