The election tightens but I think Clinton will win…

No doubt: the election is back to where it was pre-convention. This New York Times article gives a rundown o the various models and how they differ. In terms of basketball, you have a randomly chosen NBA player at the free throw line. If he makes the shot, Clinton wins. He misses: Trump wins. Or, think of an NFL kicker attempting a 45 yard field goal. A make means a Clinton win.

In the betting markets, Clinton is now slightly Less than a 2-1 favorite.


Why I think she will win: President Obama’s approval ratings continue to track President Reagan’s. Note where President Bush’s (II) were during the 2008 election.


And I think that President Obama can help Sec. Clinton, as this election might well be a “turn out” election. If the Democrats show up, we win. If they don’t, we lose.

So, what is going on? My guess is that Trump is being fueled by those who don’t want to “press 1 for English” crowd.


September 16, 2016 - Posted by | political/social, politics, politics/social |

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