Ok, for the important stuff: Illinois Football for 2016

I got news that my Illinois football tickets are on the way. I get 7 home games. Now how well will Illinois do?

Last year, they went 5-7 despite the turmoil of their coach getting fired soon before their season opener.

Then again, their wins came by way of a bad, sleep deprived MAC team, a weak FCS team, and two games in which the visiting team flat out blew the game (Nebraska: poor time management with the lead and Middle Tennessee: missed 41 yard field goal as time expired). Yes, there was an easy win over Purdue.

But realistically, they could have well been 3-9 last season.

This year, they get Lovie Smith as coach. BUT, the personnel is more or less the same, and the schedule is tougher, with 9 Big Ten games (instead of 8), and a “favorite for the MAC title” team on the schedule instead of a “bottom tier” MAC team. So I am seeing predictions ranging from 3 wins to 5 wins.

So, this is how I see it:

Sept. 3 Murray State (all but certain win; bad FCS team)
Sept. 10 North Carolina (likely loss; last year it was 48-14)
Sept. 17 Western Michigan (toss up; WMU is a favorite in the MAC, but a Big Ten team should win this game)
Sept. 24 OPEN DATE
Oct. 1 at Nebraska (likely loss)
Oct. 8 Purdue (likely win)
Oct. 15 at Rutgers (toss up)
Oct. 22 at Michigan (almost certain loss)
Oct. 29 Minnesota (toss up)
Nov. 5 Michigan State (almost certain loss)
Nov. 12 at Wisconsin (almost certain loss)
Nov. 19 Iowa (almost certain loss)
Nov. 26 at Northwestern (likely loss)

So I see:

1 all but certain win (.95 probability of winning)
1 likely win (.7 probability of winning)
3 toss ups (.5 probability of winning)
3 likely losses (.3 probability of winning)
4 almost certain losses (.1 probability of winning)

This gives 4.45 wins by my model.

So, here is my “fan’s wishful thinking model”: win the 2 games that they should, win 2 of the 3 toss ups and win one upset victory which means 5 wins.

But ….win ALL toss ups OR score 2 upsets and get 6 wins.


August 1, 2016 - Posted by | college football, football |

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