blueollie

Tough Primary elections: bringing out the worst in people.

It is no secret: there are dumb people of all political persuasions. In a primary: you have a lot of smart people backing the competing candidates, and you have some very dumb, very vocal ones too. And, thanks to social media, we are hearing from some very loud, very dumb Sanders supporters.

AP and CNN just declared that Hillary Clinton has passed the “majority of delegate” threshold needed to win the nomination, if one factors in the “super delegates” (yes, some super delegates switched from Clinton to Obama in 2008 but mostly after he had locked up the majority of pledged delegates. This time, Clinton has a commanding lead in those).

Yes, it is theoretically possible for Sanders to catch Clinton in pledged delegates; he’d have to win something close to 70 percent of the vote today. But he trails badly in New Jersey and trails narrowly in California. So more that likely, she’ll add to her pledged delegate lead, probably by a wide margin.

I note that while Clinton’s lead in the polls in California is very narrow, not a single one listed Sanders as a favorite. And the demographic models favor her by about 10 points; it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

mayjunepollscalifornia

Bottom line: Hillary Clinton will be the nominee, no matter how much the “in denial” crowd bellows and moans.

In the general election, Clinton is the betting favorite:
odds7june2016

It was 4/9 last night; 5/12 today (slightly lower odds); think of this as a 70 percent probability (roughly). That is, Hillary’s odds are roughly like those of an NBA player taking one free throw with Hillary winning if he makes it.

What is helping is that President Obama’s approval ratings are roughly what President Reagan’s were.

obamareaganjune1

What hurts is that May’s jobs numbers were lousy (38 K, not enough to “break even”, but at least it was +38K and not the negative numbers that President Bush had).

June 7, 2016 - Posted by | politics, politics/social, social/political | , ,

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