blueollie

My prediction of the delegate count as of 26 April

First things first I only lifted today (due to work): pullups (4 sets of 10, 2 of 5), rotator cuff, bench press: 10 x 135, 4 x 185, 9 x 170, incline press: 10 x 135, military (seated, supported), 2 sets of 12 x 50 seated, 10 x 40 standing, rows: 3 sets of 10 x 50 (dumbbell, single arm), head stand, plank (2 minutes front, 30 seconds side), 2 sets of 12 twist crunches, yoga leg lifts, moving bridge.

Politics

whatmattersnow

So the Sanders campaign is bragging about “7 in a row”; never mind that these 7 states combined have the population of Florida (a 30 point Clinton win).

And yes, I am starting to get annoyed by some of the Sanders backers (though I am mostly ok with the candidate himself; after all, “politics ain’t bean-bag”. I do find Sen. Sanders being annoyed at having his ideas vetted to be amusing.

But now we have some primary elections coming up:

April 19: New York (247)
April 26: Connecticut (55), Delaware (21), Maryland (95), Rhode Island(24) and Pennsylvania (189).

The polls: New York, Clinton leads by about 13 (56.5 to 43.5)
clintonnypolls

Connecticut: 6 (only one poll), 53-47
Maryland: 2 recent polls: 22 and 15 points. Call it 15 (57.5 to 42)
Pennsylvania: 3 recent polls: 22, 6 and 11 or about 13; I might call it 10 (55-45)

Nothing for Delaware or Rhode Island. But these are small states; maybe Sanders by 10 in each?

So with those assumptions, use the Delegate Tracker to obtain:

delegatesaprilprimary

Which would mean that Clinton’s lead would increase by 33 on April 19, and then by 32 more on April 26. Even worse, that takes 631 delegates “off the board”; he will have to make up a greater deficit with fewer delegates on the table.

The math is starting to look brutal for Sanders.

April 16, 2016 - Posted by | politics, politics/social, weight training |

2 Comments »

  1. […] So, is that Reich’s bar for Hillary Clinton: she needs 58.8 percent of the pledged delegates? The reality is that she has a lead of about 210 pledged delegates and is poised to add to that lead both tonight and nex…. […]

    Pingback by Democratic infighting 2016: Desperation is not pretty « blueollie | April 19, 2016 | Reply

  2. […] told you so. I had Clinton winning by 13 points 56.5-43.5 and padding her lead by 33 delegates. With 76 percent of the vote in she leads 58-42 and Upshot predicts 140-107, or a 33 delegate […]

    Pingback by Clinton: wins yet another irrelevant southern state. :-) « blueollie | April 20, 2016 | Reply


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