My prediction of the delegate count as of 26 April

First things first I only lifted today (due to work): pullups (4 sets of 10, 2 of 5), rotator cuff, bench press: 10 x 135, 4 x 185, 9 x 170, incline press: 10 x 135, military (seated, supported), 2 sets of 12 x 50 seated, 10 x 40 standing, rows: 3 sets of 10 x 50 (dumbbell, single arm), head stand, plank (2 minutes front, 30 seconds side), 2 sets of 12 twist crunches, yoga leg lifts, moving bridge.



So the Sanders campaign is bragging about “7 in a row”; never mind that these 7 states combined have the population of Florida (a 30 point Clinton win).

And yes, I am starting to get annoyed by some of the Sanders backers (though I am mostly ok with the candidate himself; after all, “politics ain’t bean-bag”. I do find Sen. Sanders being annoyed at having his ideas vetted to be amusing.

But now we have some primary elections coming up:

April 19: New York (247)
April 26: Connecticut (55), Delaware (21), Maryland (95), Rhode Island(24) and Pennsylvania (189).

The polls: New York, Clinton leads by about 13 (56.5 to 43.5)

Connecticut: 6 (only one poll), 53-47
Maryland: 2 recent polls: 22 and 15 points. Call it 15 (57.5 to 42)
Pennsylvania: 3 recent polls: 22, 6 and 11 or about 13; I might call it 10 (55-45)

Nothing for Delaware or Rhode Island. But these are small states; maybe Sanders by 10 in each?

So with those assumptions, use the Delegate Tracker to obtain:


Which would mean that Clinton’s lead would increase by 33 on April 19, and then by 32 more on April 26. Even worse, that takes 631 delegates “off the board”; he will have to make up a greater deficit with fewer delegates on the table.

The math is starting to look brutal for Sanders.


April 16, 2016 - Posted by | politics, politics/social, weight training |


  1. […] So, is that Reich’s bar for Hillary Clinton: she needs 58.8 percent of the pledged delegates? The reality is that she has a lead of about 210 pledged delegates and is poised to add to that lead both tonight and nex…. […]

    Pingback by Democratic infighting 2016: Desperation is not pretty « blueollie | April 19, 2016 | Reply

  2. […] told you so. I had Clinton winning by 13 points 56.5-43.5 and padding her lead by 33 delegates. With 76 percent of the vote in she leads 58-42 and Upshot predicts 140-107, or a 33 delegate […]

    Pingback by Clinton: wins yet another irrelevant southern state. :-) « blueollie | April 20, 2016 | Reply

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