The delegate race: Democrats


(data from here)

This is the pledged delegate campaign for the Democrats in 2016. On the y-axis is the Clinton lead; the x-axis is the number of days into the campaign. The current lead is 210 delegates. Note the two huge upswings: those represent Super Tuesday and March 15; on March 1 Clinton’s lead increased by 169; on March 15 it grew by 101 to its peak of 316. Sanders has recovered a bit to cut the lead to 210, but needs to catch up in big states, where Clinton is favored. Clinton is a huge favorite in New York and Pennsylvania and a modest favorite in California (June primary); that is where most of the delegates are.

Now there are 1647 delegates to be competed for. To make up this deficit Sanders needs to win 929 of them, or 56.4 percent of the remaining delegates. Given that he probably won’t win New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland and a few other big states, the math is brutal for him.


April 14, 2016 - Posted by | political/social, politics, politics/social |

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