Sanders will probably win Wisconsin: will it be by enough?


Here are the “late March and later” Wisconsin polls. Sanders is ahead in 5 of them; Clinton is ahead in 3. gives Sanders a 73 percent chance of winning that primary (both models: “polls only” and “polls plus”).

However, his delegate target, which would get him to having the majority of delegates, IF the delegate race were tied nationally) is 48 delegates, and his winning the primary with 55 percent of the vote only nets him 47-48 delegates. So, he might not be catching up at a fast enough rate to overcome the 230+ pledged delegate hole he is in. Also, keep in mind Clinton is a solid favorite (still) in New York, Pennsylvania and California (where there are a lot of delegates available).

Off to run in a bit; it is 29 F out but clear; rain on the way. Great college basketball game last night.

Note: Cruz is favored in Wisconsin, though a recent ARG poll showed Trump with a 10 point lead (seems like an outlier poll); Republican rules have a “winner take most” system for delegate allocation. A loss will hurt Trump’s chances of having a majority of delegates by the time the Republican convention starts. The Democrats have a “proportional” system which makes it harder to overcome a lead.

Ironically, Sanders would benefit from a Republican delegate allocation system and Trump would benefit from a Democratic allocation system. 🙂


April 5, 2016 - Posted by | politics | ,

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