blueollie

State of the Democratic Primary Race as of April 3

The Democratic (and Republican) Wisconsin is on April 5. Though everything I’ve read says that Sanders ought to win this one, well, the fivethirtyeight.com “pollsplus”forecast has been switching between Clinton and Sanders for a while:

pollsplusforecastwisconsin

The recent polls favor Sanders in a close race:

wisconsinpolls

But remember it is about delegates. Whereas a Sanders win can help him in subsequent races, he is still in a large hole with respect to pledged delegates (228). A 53-47 win would help Sanders cut into that lead by 6 delegates (53-47 Sanders would split the delegates about 46-40 in favor of Sanders). That probably won’t be enough, given that the demographics favor him here.

One factor: President Obama’s approval ratings are hovering around 50 percent overall, which is above average for this time in a second term. More importantly, in terms of the primary, he is at about 89 percent among Democrats, and Clinton is running as “Obama v. 2.0”.

Overall, at election betting odds, Clinton is an 86 percent favorite to win the nomination, and a 65.6 percent favorite to win the presidency.

One can see the odds here.

odds3april

April 3, 2016 - Posted by | political/social, politics, politics/social | , , ,

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