# blueollie

## Think that Sanders is going to win the nomination? Take my challenge.

Workout notes
weights: 5 sets of 10 pull ups (tough)
rotator cuff
incline presses: 10 x 135, 7 x 150 (bad), 10 x 140
military: 2 sets of 12 x 50 (seated, supported), 7 x 85 (barbell)
rows: 3 sets of 10 x 50 (single arm)
head stand (almost went over at first)
twist crunches: 2 sets of 12
yoga leg lifts: 2 sets of 10

swim: 500 (chased Jason at the end)
5 x (50 drill (fins), 50 free (no fins)
5 x (25 fly, 25 free, 25 back, 25 free)
100 pull, 100 free, 100 pull

I was just off.

Democratic Race The polls have done a good job (save Michigan) except for the caucus states. (via Sam Wang):

The most important quantity for prediction is the accuracy of all the polls aggregated. The delegate-weighted sum of polls is Clinton +17.9%. The delegate-weighted voting result is Clinton +14.8%. The difference, 3 percentage points in Sanders’s direction, is greater than the ~2% that one would expect from sampling error alone. However, it does not come anywhere close to the 22-point swing that I calculated is necessary for Sanders to get an overall majority of pledged delegates by June 7th.

But alas, there are those who “just know” that Sanders is on his way to winning the majority of pledged delegates.

Though I have no problem with people saying that they like him better than the alternative, I do get tired of the ill informed and the mathematically illiterate saying stupid things on my wall. So I issued a challenge:

Ok Sanders supporters, I’ve had enough of your trash talk. So it is time to put up or shut up.
If you are sure that Sanders is going to win the nomination, let’s make the following bet:
If Sanders wins the nomination, I’ll give his campaign 100 dollars. If Clinton wins, you give her campaign 25 dollars.
That is 4-1; how magnanimous can I be?
I’ll make that bet with the first 5 Sanders supporters who are willing to put their money where their mouth is.
Update: let me be clear. I have no beef with those who either like Sanders better or who don’t like Clinton. Here, my beef is with those who dispute the fact that Clinton has an all-but-insurmountable lead in pledged delegates; those who claim that the media (fivethirtyeight.com, Paul Krugman, etc.) are lying when they say that she basically has the nomination wrapped up.
THOSE are the people who I am calling out here.

Note: I had to add the update because the less-than-bright seemed to read this as a “how dare you say something positive about Sanders on my wall”. I was addressing those who deny the reality of the pledged delegate situation.

Of course, I had no takers; I didn’t expect any. All bluster…with nothing to back it up.