Delegate math

Yesterday I reported that Sanders won the Democrats Abroad primary and won the battle of delegates (pledged) 9-4.
Last night: Clinton won Arizona 44-30 (58-40 percent) whereas Sanders won Idaho 17-5 (78-21 percent) and Utah 24-5 (80-20 percent).

So over the past 4 contests there were 138 pledged delegates available. Sanders won 80 of them; Clinton won 58.

At the start of this period Sanders needed to win 58 percent of the available delegates to cut into the lead; during this latest 4 contest period he won 58 percent of them.
So, he did catch up a little, at just the right clip. But that was given favorable ground.

(data from here and here.)

ON the Republican side, the Samoan delegates went uncommitted; Trump rolled in Arizona and Cruz won Utah with more than 50 percent, so Trump got 58, Cruz 40. provides some commentary:

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton won Arizona easily, while Bernie Sanders won Utah and (although it hasn’t been called officially yet) very probably will win Idaho — in both cases perhaps by overwhelming margins. Thus, it’s probable — likely if I had to guess — that Sanders will win more pledged delegates on the evening. (My note: on the evening, Sanders won 71, Clinton 54)

Not all the news is good for Sanders, however. He was expected to win more delegates on the evening based on our demographic targets — and more importantly, he’s far enough behind Clinton that he needs to not just meet but blow out his delegate targets the rest of the way to have a shot at eventually catching Clinton. Alaska, Hawaii and Washington will vote on Saturday, states where we expect Sanders to perform well.

President Obama’s approval ratings are probably helping Hillary Clinton:



March 23, 2016 - Posted by | politics, politics/social | , ,

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