Before the spin starts: what are Clinton’s and Sanders’ targets for tonight?

From here:

Remember that Sanders has to make up a huge deficit in pledged delegates; he is over 300 behind at this point.

So to be on target to catch up, he needs to total 74 delegates (41 from Arizona, 14 from Idaho and 19 from Utah) whereas Clinton needs to total 57 (34 from Arizona, 9 from Idaho and 14 from Utah) to stay on target. There are no good forecasts giving the dearth of recent polling, though a recent poll (early March) shows Clinton with a healthy lead. But things may have changed since then.

The betting line for Arizona: Clinton 1/7, Sanders 4.

We shall see. I don’t have a great feel for how this will go, other than I expect Sanders to clean up in the Utah and Idaho caucuses just based on demographics. Arizona is the contest that interests me.

On the Republican side, I expect for Trump to roll and do better than usual with late deciders, given the publicity on the Belgium terrorist attacks.


March 22, 2016 - Posted by | politics, politics/social | , , , ,

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