Interesting model for Democrat primaries

Of course, one runs the danger of “overfitting” when one tries to explain what happened in this past. But this is just a simple two factor linear regression based on “north vs. south” and “percentage of Democratic voters who are nonwhite”: (created by Alan I. Abramowitz)

The prediction for Tuesday: easy wins for Clinton in Florida and North Carolina, narrow win in Illinois, and narrow Sanders wins in Ohio and Missouri.

Personally, I think that the polling in Michigan was bad due to Michigan not having had a competitive Democratic primary in a long time (they lost their delegates in 2008 and then Senator Obama wasn’t even on the ballot). But we shall see.

Paul Krugman notes that this means that at the end of the day, Clinton will have widened her lead in pledged delegates. However IMHO Krugman is overreacting to some of the nasty comments on the Sanders twitter feed.

Workout notes: routine 1 mile swim; 1000 easy, 2 x 100 alt side/free, 4 x 100 alt fly, free, back, free, 100 pull, 100 fins. Just got it in; resting for the trip to Cleveland.


March 11, 2016 - Posted by | politics, politics/social, swimming | , ,

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