Sanders scores big upset in Michigan, BUT Clinton’s pledged delegate lead grows

Yes, I did NOT see the upset in Michigan coming:

Bernie Sanders made folks like me eat a stack of humble pie on Tuesday night. He won the Michigan primary over Hillary Clinton, 50 percent to 48 percent, when not a single poll taken over the last month had Clinton leading by less than 5 percentage points. In fact, many had her lead at 20 percentage points or higher. Sanders’s win in Michigan was one of the greatest upsets in modern political history.

Both the FiveThirtyEight polls-plus and polls-only forecast gave Clinton a greater than 99 percent chance of winning. That’s because polling averages for primaries, while inexact, are usually not 25 percentage points off. Indeed, my colleague Nate Silver went back and found that only one primary, the 1984 Democratic primary in New Hampshire, was even on the same scale as this upset. In that contest, the polling average had Walter Mondale beating Gary Hart by 17 percentage points, but it was Hart who won by a hair over 9 percentage points.

But the win was a very narrow one; pledged delegate allocation will be close. Mississippi was NOT close (83-16) and so, at the end of the evening, Clinton’s lead in pledged delegates GREW, not shrank. Sanders is NOT catching up. In pledged delegates, Sanders won Michigan 65-57, but lost Mississippi 29-4 so the net score was 86-69, or a gain of 17 for Clinton. The pledged delegate lead is 760-546 and it will be hard for Sanders to close that gap.

Still, bettors are a bit uneasy with Clinton’s weakness; her odds have dropped a little (from 1/2 to 8/15) and Sanders is now “only” a 9-1 underdog to win the nomination.


What is means: well, primary polls, especially in open primary races, can be way off. Most of the time, they aren’t this far off. But this has to encourage Sanders supporters in Florida, Ohio and Illinois. Well..he did fall further behind but…

Now on the Republican side: Trump won Hawaii, Michigan and Mississippi, and Cruz won Idaho, and Trump’s delegate lead increased.


March 9, 2016 - Posted by | politics, politics/social | , , , ,

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