# blueollie

## Michigan and Mississippi primaries today (and other topics)

Workout notes Too pretty to run inside, so I did my hilly 8.1 Cornstalk course. I didn’t time myself, but I did leave at 7:15 and finished at 8:43 and didn’t cough that much afterward. Wonderful run, even if it was too damned slow.

Illinois Football: I am seeking to upgrade my season tickets; I’ll know in a month if I can. There may be more renewals due to the hiring of a new, high profile coach.

Personal I don’t know where this comes from, but when I feel that I’ve been wronged, I feel “unfulfilled” if I haven’t told the other party off, or told them off in a vigorous enough manner. That is, of course, counterproductive and illogical.

Personal Dammit, I miss “my girls”!

Mathematics/Statistics: Here is what a p-value means: a p-value is the probability that one would observe the given observed data, IF the null hypothesis were true. Example: Suppose you assumed that a coin was fair and that the probability of obtaining a head on a single toss is .5. So if one tossed a coin 10 times and obtained 8 heads, the probability of obtaining 8 more more heads, given that the coin was fair, is 0.0546875. THAT is the definition of p-value. Too many do not understand this.

Primaries: according to fivethirtyeight.com, Hillary Clinton has a 99 percent chance of winning the Michigan and of winning the Mississippi primaries. Trump has a 92 percent chance of winning Michigan today.

As far as the odds for the general election:

So Hillary Clinton’s odds are better than they’ve ever been, though Sanders’ odds of being the nominee scooted from being a 14-1 underdog to a 12-1? That is curious.

And noted that Hillary Clinton is running “close” to President Obama. Here is why:

Right now President Obama is at 49 percent approval in the Gallup and is riding slightly above the historical trend, and well, well above where President Bush was at this time in his presidency. Oh, don’t worry; your favorite ranting right wing uncle won’t believe it. 🙂