blueollie

Politics again: Sanders vs. Clinton, primaries, etc.

Personal: I joked to my department chair that I’ve only been able to sleep 6-6:30 or so; he said that I am not working out hard enough. (he was laughing). Well, I think tonight will be early for me.

Politics The Sanders vs. Clinton discussions appear to be “idealism vs. practicality”. Paul Krugman explains:

As Matt O’Brien rightly said recently, even the incremental changes Hillary Clinton is proposing are very unlikely to get through Congress; the radical changes Bernie Sanders is proposing wouldn’t happen even if Democrats retook the House. O’Brien says that the Democratic primary is “like arguing what’s more real: a magical unicorn or a regular unicorn. In either case, you’re still running on a unicorn platform.” This is, alas, probably true: the platforms of the candidates are better seen as aspirational than as programs at all likely to happen.

But in that case, why not go for the magical unicorn? A couple of reasons.

One is that there are degrees of realism: a program that could be implemented in part if Democrats retake the House might turn out to be a useful guide relatively soon, while a program that requires a political revolution won’t.

Another is that, perhaps inevitably, the Sanders insistence on the need for magical unicorns has led to invocations of economic as well as political magic. I warned a while back that even Sanders wasn’t willing to level with voters about what his ideals would require — that, in particular, he was assuming unrealistic savings in order to gloss over the reality that quite a few middle-class Americans would be net losers from a transition to single payer. I’m not alone in raising such concerns, and not just about the health plan. [..]

There is more to the article; I can recommend it.

As far as the head-to-head polling: remember that Hillary Clinton is very, very vetted. As Sanders hangs around, that will happen more and more to him.

About the polls: Clinton leads nationally, though the headlines about the same poll appear to tell different stories. I suppose it is about what one wishes to emphasize.

The betting markets: look who is no. 2 in the Presidential race, and note how the Nevada caucus has tightened.

odds16february

Side note: at yesterday’s Presidents Day dinner, there were lots of “Hillary” stickers and Rep. Bustos endorsed her. There were a few Bernie stickers too. I didn’t take a poll or anything, though it appeared to me that there were 5 Hillary and 2 Bernie people at our table.

Republicans: yes, Trump has a lead in South Carolina; the Republican primary is this Saturday. Sam Wang argues that he could sweep ALL of the delegates.

February 17, 2016 - Posted by | politics, politics/social | , , , ,

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