blueollie

Politics: data on the state of the race

We are hearing all sorts of stuff about the state of the race. Yes, it is very early.

Yes, Donald Trump leads the Republican polls. And Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic polls. Hillary Clinton also leads the national “head to head” polls. Hillary Clinton has the best odds in the betting markets, by far. The Democrats, as a party, are a modest favorite in the general.

President Obama is just below “break even” in approval ratings and is tracking almost exactly with the historical trend lines, and well above where President Bush was at this time in his administration.

THOSE are the facts.

Via Real Clear Politics:

Democratic Primary

julyaug2015dpollavg

Republican Primary

julyaug2015rpollavg

National head to head:

julyaug2015nationalpolls

Obama Approval (Gallup)

Obama approval

obamaapprovalaug2015

Obama vs. trend lines for previous two term presidents and George W. Bush

obamavsaveragebushaug2015

Betting lines

Individual and party

aug11usbettingoddsparty

Various Individuals

aug10individualcandidates

So, for better or worse, those are the facts at this early stage.

August 11, 2015 - Posted by | 2016, politics, politics/social | , , ,

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