blueollie

Primary Season is coming up…

Yes, I know; it is still a few months off. Voters are gradually starting to pay attention. Yes, despite a “Sanders surge”, Clinton still leads by a wide margin with her biggest favorable ratings coming among liberal Democrats (81 percent) and non-white Democrats (80 percent). It will be tough for her to crack 50 percent nationally as we are so polarized. BUT President Obama won with similar approval ratings in 2012. Yes, he was the incumbent

The schedule is a bit later than it was in 2008.

Ironically, I see more opposition to Hillary Clinton coming from the left than from the right! Now of course, that reflects my friends list; those who are really into politics ..the most passionate tend to be a bit more extremist ideologically pure and would therefore see her as being too “corporate friendly” and too “hawkish”. I do have a few Facebook friends who are politically conservative but not nearly as many.

As far as the other candidates: I do like James Webb, though I wouldn’t mind him on the ticket as a VP. He is too conservative for my tastes so I wouldn’t want him driving the agenda at the top of the ticket. But he appears to be knowledgeable and level headed.

Now it is too early to start betting, but here are what the betting lines say:

july2016politicalbets

At the party level, you have to bet 11 dollars to win 8 if you bet on the Democrats, and you have to bet 4 dollars to win 5 if you bet on the Republicans (that is, the Democrats are a modest favorite). Individually, Hillary Clinton is even money; Jeb Bush is “bet 2 to win 7” and is the highest rated Republican. Rubio is a 10-1 long shot, Walker 16 to 1 and Sanders 18 to 1.

From here.

July 26, 2015 - Posted by | politics, politics/social | , ,

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