blueollie

2014: midterms will probably be grim for me…

It is looking more and more like the Republicans will not only hold to the House (maybe even pad their margin) but also take the Senate. Well…I’d call it a “victory” if we can keep 50 in our Senate caucus where the VP would break a tie.

The big problem:
President Obama isn’t very popular right now:

presidentobamaapprovalmarch2014

No, he is NOT in President George W. Bush territory nor is he in President Truman territory. But he isn’t at 50 percent either.
On the other hand, he IS popular with the hard core people (like me) and his organization OFA is doing well, money wise:

Interviews with more than two dozen Democratic members of Congress, state party officials and strategists revealed a new urgency about the need to address the party’s prospects. One Democratic lawmaker, who asked not to be identified, said Mr. Obama was becoming “poisonous” to the party’s candidates. At the same time, Democrats are pressing senior aides to Mr. Obama for help from the political network.

“I’m a prolific fund-raiser, but I can’t compete with somebody who has got 50-some-odd billion dollars,” said Representative Joe Garcia of Florida, a vulnerable first-term member who has already faced more than $500,000 in negative TV ads from third-party conservative groups. “One hopes the cavalry is coming. One hopes the cavalry is coming.”

The gap is yawning. Outside Republican groups have spent about $40 million in this election cycle, compared with just $17 million by Democrats.

When two senior White House officials — Jennifer Palmieri, the communications director, and Phil Schiliro, the health care adviser — went to the Capitol late last month to address Senate Democrats about the Affordable Care Act, they were met with angry questions about why Mr. Obama’s well-funded advocacy group, Organizing for Action, was not airing commercials offering them cover on the health law.

Among those raising concerns was Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, who also has a low-key style and warm relationship with Mr. Obama.

“They did not want to hear about health care enrollment,” one source familiar with the meeting said, describing “a high level of anxiety.”

In other words: “stay way but send $$$”. That is sort of the sense I am getting with respect to the small donors too: “we disrespect your values but we want your $$$.”

Yes, I give a small amount of money regularly to OFA. I gave a smaller amount to our IL-17 Congressional Representative Cheri Bustos, who is facing tea party challenger (and former representative) Bobby Schilling.

To say the least: I am not thrilled about her performance (President Obama carried her district by 17 points; she won by 6. Yet she joined the Blue Dogs. I UNDERSTAND a Montana Democrat or a Louisiana Democrat or an Arkansas Democrat being more conservative. Many of their constituents are backwards. This really doesn’t apply in IL-17: Ms. Bustos won primarily on the strength of the urban areas in her district:

It didn’t work and Bustos won 53-47 (18,500 votes); she picked up her margins in Rock Island as well as in sections of Rockford and Peoria:

She won Fulton county by 200, Knox county (Galesburg) by 1200, Peoria County (part of it; the other part is in IL-18) by 8400, Rock Island by 6600, Tazewell by 200 (part of the county), Whiteside by 200 and Winnebago (part of Rockford) by 8700. Or put another way, her margin came from Rock Island plus parts of two larger cities.

Her margin was about 18,000 votes.

Yet, she insists on trying to appeal to voters who…well, probably aren’t going to vote for her anyway.

That might be a big part of the problem. The Republicans are running toward their base and the Democrats are afraid of their base.

Anyhow, I predict that we are going to get creamed in the midterms. How bad: I cannot say.

I wish that more Democrats would remember what President Truman said:

I’ve seen it happen time after time. When the Democratic candidate allows himself to be put on the defensive and starts apologizing for the New Deal and the fair Deal, and says he really doesn’t believe in them, he is sure to lose. The people don’t want a phony Democrat. If it’s a choice between a genuine Republican, and a Republican in Democratic clothing, the people will choose the genuine article, every time; that is, they will take a Republican before they will a phony Democrat, and I don’t want any phony Democratic candidates in this campaign.
But when a Democratic candidate goes out and explains what the New Deal and fair Deal really are–when he stands up like a man and puts the issues before the people–then Democrats can win, even in places where they have never won before. It has been proven time and again.

March 17, 2014 - Posted by | 2014 midterm, Barack Obama, Cheri Bustos, politics, politics/social, social/political, Spineless Democrats | , ,

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