A Case Study in Manipulation

Ok, it is a legitimate question to ask: “is opposing Obamacare politically risky”? So when you ask the question, it is legitimate to poll the Congressional districts that appear to be competitive.

So a Republican leaning poll did that:

On August 7-8, 2013, Basswood Research conducted a nationwide survey of likely general election voters in ten different Congressional districts. Six of those House districts are presently held by Republicans, four are held by Democrats. They broadly represent a cross-section of Republican-leaning but not safe-Republican districts. The Republican held seats are FL-2, IL-18, NJ-7, NC-2, OH-12, and OR-2. The Democratic held seats are GA-12, NC-7, UT-4, and WV-3. The survey was conducted by live professional interviewers by telephone. The sample had 100 interviews in each of the ten districts, yielding an overall sample size of 1000, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1%, at a 95% confidence interval for the overall sample.

Key Findings

Discontent with Obamacare is vast.

Only 20% of voters in these districts support going forward with Obamacare unchanged. Thirty-two percent express concerns about Obamacare, and a desire to slow down its implementation and make changes to the law, while a 45% plurality think the law should be repealed. Thus, 77% favor either a slow down in implementation or an outright repeal. Only 5% of Republicans and 17% of Independents favor proceeding with Obamacare fully and without changes. Even among Democrats, just 42% fully embrace Obamacare, with 36% agreeing that it should be slowed down, and 17% favoring repeal.

The idea of “de-funding” Obamacare is broadly supported.

When asked the straight question, “Do you support or oppose de-funding, or removing the funding, from the Obama health care law?” respondent voters supported de-funding 57%-34%. Among those with strong opinions on either side, those who “strongly support” de-funding outnumbered those who “strongly oppose” de-funding by a 41%-22% margin, signifying much greater intensity among opponents of the law. Among swing voting Independents, support for de-funding came in at 57%-34%, exactly mirroring the result in the overall sample.

Note: I used to live in IL-18; this district has gone Democratic once in the last 100 years and the seat is currently held by Aaron Schock; it is about as safe as a district can get. It is especially true now since redistricting when most of the Democrats who used to live in IL-18 were put in IL-17. So I wonder why they’d include IL-18 unless it was to pad their statistics.

Here are the districts that they used, along with the 2012 general election totals: Romney vs. Obama

CD R. vs. O.
FL-2 52.3-46.5
IL-18 60.7-37.4
NJ-7 52.5-46.3
NC-2 57.3-41.7
OH-12 54.4-43.9
OR-2 56.8-40.5
GA-12 55.4-43.6
NC-7 59.2-39.9
UT-4 67.2-30.2
WV-3 65.0-32.8
AVG 58.08-40.28

So, is the “57 percent in favor of defunding” really a surprise?

(statistics from here)

But never mind; I can see why they did this poll.

But what does the Heritage Foundation do?

Oh noes! Oh wait…read the fine print…very fine print. 🙂

It doesn’t come more cynical than that.


August 29, 2013 - Posted by | health care, politics, politics/social, republicans political/social, republicans politics | ,

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