blueollie

You know that things are looking good when you see stuff like this:

(from here via watertiger)

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October 30, 2008 Posted by | 2008 Election, Barack Obama | Leave a comment

Excellent Political Junkie Screensaver

A Political Junkie’s dream come true: the Electoral Vote screensaver. It puts the current EV estimate on your screen, and goes between the various states while flashing the poll numbers from that state. 🙂

Woo Hoo!

October 30, 2008 Posted by | 2008 Election, humor | 1 Comment

The Word – I Endorse Barack Obama | Wednesday October 29 | ColbertNation.com

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More Comedy

Where did Joe the Plumber go?

Even more comedy: From a PUMA blog
Pennsylvania tied?

NBC/Mason Dixon Poll: Pennsylvania BO 47, McCain 43, Undecided 9%, Statistical TIE 10/30/08

Uh, the margin of error is 4 points and being right at the margin of error means that there is an 84 percent probability that Obama is ahead. 🙂

For more information: see Mano Singham’s article. Of course, many other recent polls show BHO at 51-55 percent.

But hey, that is what math illiterates do: they cherry pick data that they have no understanding of.
That might explain their political views!

October 30, 2008 Posted by | 2008 Election, Barack Obama, humor, John McCain | 4 Comments

3quarksdaily: Obama on Jon Stewart

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For More Comedy, check out Dick Morris

Iraq isn’t the only place where the surge seems to be working. John McCain’s gains over the last five days are remaking the political landscape as Election Day approaches.

The double-digit leads Barack Obama held last week have evaporated, as all three of the top tracking polls (the most current and reliable measurements out there) show McCain hot on Obama’s heels. […]

Then there’s the so-called Bradley effect – where white voters lie to pollsters and say they are backing the black candidate when they’re not.

To date, it’s been a myth: As The Wall Street Journal reported, Tom Bradly had lost his lead in the polls by the time California voted on his bid to become governor. But it may be real this year. […]

So we approach Election Day with the possibility of a rerun of 2000 plainly before us. McCain has closed to a point where the race will likely be very, very close – and we’ll have to stay up very, very late on Election Night.

Yeah, sure.

🙂

October 30, 2008 Posted by | 2008 Election, Barack Obama, humor, John McCain, mccain, obama, politics, politics/social, republicans, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Play the DemConWatch Election Prediction Game

Make your predictions here. Here are mine (so I can’t weasel out)

Colorado Obama
Florida Obama
Georgia McCain
Indiana Obama
Minnesota Obama
Missouri Obama
Montana Obama
Nevada Obama
New Hampshire Obama
New Mexico Obama
North Carolina Obama
North Dakota McCain
Ohio Obama
Pennsylvania Obama
Virginia Obama
West Virginia McCain

Total: Obama 378 McCain 160
Popular: Obama 52.5, McCain 46.0

You can play with a cool map here.
The MSNBC consensus is 364-174, with the consensus giving McCain Montana and Indiana.

Intrade sees it just as the MSNBC users see it.

Just for fun Here is one prediction:

This was made by the kids who read Weekly Reader. They have been right 12 of the last 13 times.
Weekly Reader Election website.

From 1956 until now, they’ve gotten it right except for 1992; note however they picked a George Bush landslide in 2004.

Does this mean anything? In 2004, Kerry won single voters by large margins but Bush won the married/family vote. This year, Obama is doing well with singles (again) and probably with families as well.

But I doubt if the above map is accurate. 🙂

Update: one reason I am glad that I don’t live in Texas anymore.

A University of Texas poll to be released today shows Republican presidential candidate John McCain and GOP Sen. John Cornyn leading by comfortable margins in Texas, as expected. But the statewide survey of 550 registered voters has one very surprising finding: 23 percent of Texans are convinced that Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama is a Muslim.

Anyone who knows anything about Texas won’t be surprised by this. I’m sure that those in Austin know the story, but as far as the blood-red areas of the state? IGNORANCE is the norm; heck, it is considered a virtue!

October 30, 2008 Posted by | 2008 Election, Barack Obama, humor, John McCain, mccain, obama | 2 Comments

October 30 2008: Early AM

I am about to go out for an early morning run (leave at 5:15 or so and run for about 1 hour). Update: my modified West Peoria 5.3 mile course (52 minutes) then 12:10 walking mile on the treadmill. It all felt good; crisp air and diamond skies.

I don’t like going out in the dark, but I don’t have much of a choice; I want to get it in prior to work. I might take a “sanity walk” during daylight (stroll, really).

McCain closing the gap!
We are starting to hear about how McCain is “closing the gap”. Reality check:

Number one, John McCain is NOT closing Obama’s margin as quickly as he needs to (if indeed he is closing it at all). This appears to be a 6- or 7- point race right now … that’s where we have it, that’s where RCP has it, that where Pollster.com has it. In order to beat Barack Obama, John McCain will need to gain at least one point per day between now and the election. Our model does think that McCain has pared about a point off Obama’s margin — but it has taken him a week to do so. Now, McCain needs to gain six more points in six more days. And he needs to do so with no real ground game, no real advertsing budget, and no one particularly strong message. Not easy.

Number two, John McCain is NOT gaining ground in the states that matter the most. The top tier of states in this election are Virginia, Colorado and Pennsylvania. There is lots of lots of polling in these states, particularly in Virgnia and Pennsylvania, and it’s all coming up in roughly the same range, showing Obama leads in the high single digits (in VA and CO) or the low double digits (in PA). The second tier of states is probably Ohio, Florida and Nevada. McCain seems to be getting a bit stronger in Florida; Obama seems to be getting a bit stronger in Ohio and Nevada. McCain does seem to have halted Obama’s progress in some of the third-tier states, particularly Missouri and North Carolina. On the other hand, some other third-tier states, like New Mexico and particularly New Hampshire (where Obama is getting some insane numbers lately), now appear to be off the table.

Or put another way: a whole batch of new polls came out. McCain leads in:

Alaska, Kansas, Idaho and Utah (by 16-23 points), Missouri (by 2) and Arizona (by 2) and Georgia (by 4). That’s it.
Follow the link and see for yourself.

Still, it isn’t over and I am still making my GOTV out of town trip. And yes, I made my final campaign donation.

Humor: McCain tried to hammer Obama for having some ties (e. g., having a conversation) with Rashid Khalidi. But McCain helped fund his work!

[Seth Colter Walls] A 1998 tax filing for the McCain-led group shows a $448,873 grant to Khalidi’s Center for Palestine Research and Studies for work in the West Bank. (See grant number 5180, “West Bank: CPRS” on page 14 of this PDF.)

The relationship extends back as far as 1993, when John McCain joined IRI as chairman in January. Foreign Affairs noted in September of that year that IRI had helped fund several extensive studies in Palestine run by Khalidi’s group, including over 30 public opinion polls and a study of “sociopolitical attitudes.”

Of course, there’s seemingly nothing objectionable with McCain’s organization helping a Palestinian group conduct research in the West Bank or Gaza. But it does suggest that McCain could have some of his own explaining to do as he tries to make hay out of Khalidi’s ties to Obama.

October 30, 2008 Posted by | 2008 Election, Barack Obama, John McCain, mccain, politics, politics/social, republicans | Leave a comment

Obama Infomercial and Other topics

(hat tip: Jed Report)

In case you missed it, the “almost 30 minutes” Obama informercial.

Good stuff; I am not sure if they got the live shot at the end though. In the “real time” version, they ended it with a shot from a Florida rally.

Some non politics

Richard Dawkins: this parody article has Dawkins dying only to be resurrected and getting Jesus-like qualities. Of course, he claims that there is a “natural explanation.

A book I need to read: a book about dumbness in politics, from both the left and the right. The book is Dumokoracy by Beckerman.

A socially liberal person talks about the balance between compassion for others and living responsibility. Highly recommended. Mano Singham’s writing has been exceptionally good lately.

2008 Election and Politics

Humor: A comment on just who is counting your votes. Feel better?

Obama: “Am I a socialist? I did share my toys when I was in kindergarten.”

Feel Good story
Daughter of a man who was born into slavery votes for Obama in Texas. Yes, she is 109 years old!

Yes, I lived close to her (she lives near Bastrop, Texas, which is 30 miles outside of Austin).

How is the campaign going?

Bill and Hillary Clinton are going all out.

A non-Obama campaign ad.

Ari at Edge of the American West comments that Obama is running an exceptional campaign.

CNN: points out that Obama is gaining in the electoral map.

John McCain’s commercials continue to misfire:

Since when did Obama indicate that he’d meet Iranian preconditions?

By the way, the McCain camp still gets it wrong:

What is up with the Republicans?

North Carolina Senate Race
Elizabeth Dole is desperate; she is attempting to slur Kay Hagan by calling her “an atheist”

I find this comical. Of course there are two non-comical things:
1. Dole is lying and
2. She thinks that being “an atheist” is a bad thing; she is using the cry “atheist” as a slur (and it is a slur with many people).

But from my point of view imagine this:

“My opponent doesn’t believe in Zeus!” If you were “that opponent”, would you be offended by that remark? Well, religious wingnuts, your god is to me as Zeus is to you. 🙂

Ugliness continues at McCain rallies: this one is in North Carolina.

A fellow central Illinois resident has had their Obama sign stolen.

But this tops them all: watch as disgraced former Representative Tom Delay (indicted for violating campaign finance law) as he flings monkey feces at Obama: he cries that Obama is a socialist, anti-American, a radical, etc.

Isn’t Tom Delay just the perfect representative of the Republican party as it is today: utterly ignorant, classless and corrupt! Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz destroys him afterward; that alone is worth watching.

Things might not be changing for the better either. Sarah Palin sees the handwriting on the wall and is already thinking of 2012.

Talk about being disloyal to the top of the ticket! But she is the perfect “new Republican” isn’t she: selfish, narcissistic and completely anti-intellectual.

Update: ABC News had admitted that they made a mistake. See here. Palin did NOT say that she was giving up on the election; the “going through this for naught” remark was more about her response to the sexism that she has encountered while in politics and not her time with McCain.

A commenter to a Linda Chavez talks about what is going on:
(Linda Chavez article)

“We need conservative leaders to put the brakes on liberal over reaching. When conservatives are in power, the nation needs liberal leaders to put the brakes on conservatives. That’s a scenario that serves America. The main problem, and it shows up in almost every poll today and every scan of voter attitude, is that Americans simply can’t stomach any more conservative BS.

No more BS that small town America is the ‘real’ America, and that I am not a ‘real’ America because I live in a city. No more BS that Congress needs to be investigated for ‘anti-Americanism.’ No more BS that your opponent, whomever he is, is a Communist or a Socialist. No more BS that your next door neighbor hates America because his political views are to the left of yours. No more BS that science and evidence don’t matter, as long as ideological purity is upheld. No more BS about being privy to the Truth because you are a Christian.

That is the Conservatism that is being rejected. You do not need to believe or agree. But if you don’t see that reality then you are divorced from the reality of this election. As long as your standard bearers are Rush Limbaugh and Anne Coulter, you will lose.”

(Hat tip to Science Avenger)

October 30, 2008 Posted by | 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Biden, bill richardson, hillary clinton, Illinois, Joe Biden, John McCain, mccain, morons, obama, Peoria, Peoria/local, politics, politics/social, religion, republicans, sarah palin | 2 Comments