blueollie

My political races (IL-17, IL-governor) and a treadmill run

Politics: below the treadmill chart.

Today: though it was pretty, I decided to stay on the treadmill to save the legs a bit.

Base elevation: I use 0.5 to equalize the pace to road running (account for lack of wind resistance)

So I started with a slow mile (10:40) and then did a 10 minute mile varying the elevation: .05-1-2-3-4.
I switched treadmills due to the “lower the elevation” button being stuck!

Then I did close to 42 minutes on the other treadmill at 9:50 mpm (6.1) and did:

2 minutes at 0.5, 2 minutes at 2.0, 2 minutes at 0.5, 2 minutes at 3.0
then 8 x (2 minutes at 0.5, 2 minutes at 4.0); I hit 4 miles at about 39:30 or so.
Then 2 more minutes at 6.0 (10 mpm) at 0.5 to finish 10K.

That was more challenging than I hoped it would be; here is why:

treadmillpaceconversion

Click for a larger version. (from here) I totaled 18 minutes of running at a “sub 9 minute pace” effort with short breaks in between, which is a reasonable workout for me right now.

Politics

Tonight: my wife is dragging me to a reception for an anti-GMO State Senator (he is ok on other issues) and a Blue Dog House Democrat who is locked in competitive race…even though her district went for President Obama by 17 points in 2012. This race is leaning her way but that is mostly because the Republicans nominated a “flat-earther” Tea Party idiot. I am not enthusiastic about our candidate, but the Republican makes me want to vomit.

Our Governor’s race IS tight; it matches an ineffective Democrat against a Donald Trump caliber Republican. My guess is that our politically savvy Democrat will find a way to win.

October 21, 2014 Posted by | 2014 midterm, Cheri Bustos, politics, politics/social | , , , | Leave a comment

Bilking the not-so-bright….

TMW2014-10-01color

Wow…that would be one way to get some action. :-)

But the real con artists are the ones who know how to make themselves rich.

Sarah Palin knows how to do it:

The first pic on Sarah Palin’s website reads the oh-so original tag of: “We must reverse Obama’s destructive policies. Help send real conservatives to fix them”. Underneath the declaration is a button for conservative saps to give money to SarahPac.

According to Open Secrets the fighting Palins have been bilking the pac:

Out of $1.4 million the PAC had available in the third quarter — $978,000 sitting in the bank at the beginning of the July 1-Sept. 30 period, plus another more than $433,000 raised during that time — SarahPAC managed to donate just $45,000 to fellow Republicans running in the midterms. That’s a little more than 3 percent.
For the two-year 2014 cycle, the former Alaska governor’s PAC, a vehicle that helps her stay in the game amid talk that she may run in the 2016 presidential contest, has raised $2.5 million on top of more than $1.1 million that was in the bank at the start of the cycle. It has spent $2.7 million, with about $150,000 — or 5.5 percent — going to candidates.

This isn’t the least bit surprising. Palin quit on the people of Alaska to become a tacky television host and “author” who entered the lucrative conservative entertainment and grievance complex that has made political cancers such as O’Reilly, Hannity, Beck and Limbaugh wealthy.

Karl Rove cleaned up in 2012 (note: this article was written PRIOR to election day in 2012).

Yes, Super Pacs are doing very well…for now.

October 21, 2014 Posted by | 2014 midterm, political/social, politics, politics/social, sarah palin | , | Leave a comment

Grim News for 2014 midterms

Screen shot 2014-10-15 at 6.22.37 AM

From Electoral-vote. The reality is that we’d need to hold on to our “just barely” and get half of their “just barely” states to even hit 50-50. That is highly unlikely.

From the bookies: about 1/4 for Republican control, 7/4 for Democrats.

October 15, 2014 Posted by | 2014 midterm, politics | Leave a comment

Obama’s accomplishments

Fact Check does its thing (non-partisan)

Paul Krugman, an early critic of Obama, gives an excellent defense of his record, thereby refuting much LIBERAL criticism. Seriously people: did you think that a “different” Obama could have gotten a more liberal agenda past Republican obstructionism? And yes, the deficit is DOWN, not that anyone knows or cares.

Yes, I know: any deficit adds to the national debt, whether it is down or up.

October 10, 2014 Posted by | Barack Obama, economy, politics, Uncategorized | , | Leave a comment

The Republicans are very confident about 2014….

Screen shot 2014-10-09 at 7.43.21 PM

I can see why.

October 10, 2014 Posted by | 2014 midterm, politics | | Leave a comment

Bustos hits back; religion and state and economics….

IL-17 race: Bobby Schilling is running dishonest ads; Cheri Bustos hits back.

Presidents and the economy What do the metrics themselves say about the modern Presidents? You might be surprised at what the numbers say.

Religion and State
No, Reza Asian didn’t “take down” Bill Maher.

Our church and state issues are not as serious, but we do have them nevertheless.

October 5, 2014 Posted by | 2014 midterm, Cheri Bustos, economy, Political Ad, politics, religion, social/political | , | 1 Comment

Climate change, creationism, jobs, and race

Talk about a sticky situation. A white lesbian couple paid a sperm bank for sperm from a white male…and ended up with sperm from a black male. Now they have a half-black daughter…and they are suing.

Oh sure, one can say that they entered a business transaction and didn’t get what they paid for. But what effect will this have on the kid? Ah, they’ll probably blame it on the racism of others. ;-)

Jobs report

248K new jobs last month; the good is that this is better than losing jobs. The bad: the new jobs aren’t paying well.

Science
The Aral Sea was once the 4’th largest lake in the world. By 2000 it had shrunk a great deal, and now it is almost gone.

aral_arg_1964234.0

aral_sea_2000_vs_2012.0

Reasons: many; one of them is irrigation. One consequence is that nearby areas no longer have the lake to moderate the extremes; so it is hotter in the summer and colder in the winter.

Creationism: Why Evolution is True has an interesting take on a non-Sequitur cartoon.

October 4, 2014 Posted by | creationism, economy, politics, politics/social, racism, science, Uncategorized | , | 2 Comments

Unwelcome political news….

Workout notes
Cool, overcast and so I took an easy effort 8.1 mile run on a hilly course (Cornstalk)
corn81567climb

Time: ghastly 1:29:29, but I kept the effort easy AND I am still not over my cold totally nor have I recovered from this weekend’s festivities. And I did enjoy the slow run: 10:18, 34:11 (44:29), 34:25, 10:34.

Unwelcome
The Senate forecasts are coming in; bad news. It sure looks as if the GOP are strong favorites to retake the Senate (say, 70 percent probability).

September 30, 2014 Posted by | 2014 midterm, politics, politics/social, running | | Leave a comment

Economics, business, voter fraud…

I haven’t posted much from Paul Krugman in a while.

Here, Professor Krugman discusses how a major school of thought on macro economics went off of the rails:

Consider the extremism of Lucas and Sargent (pdf) in the early days, declaring Keynesian economics a complete failure – or Lucas talking about how Keynesian papers were greeted with “giggles and whispers”. As Wren-Lewis notes, the actual empirical failures of Keynesian economics weren’t nearly bad enough to justify that kind of total rejection – and as Waldmann says, the new classicals themselves turned their backs on empirical evidence when it began rejecting their own models. So why the utter rejection of anything Keynesian?

Well, while the explicit message of such manifestos is intellectual – this is the only valid way to do macroeconomics – there’s also an implicit message: from now on, only my students and disciples will get jobs at good schools and publish in major journals. And that, to an important extent, is exactly what happened; Ken Rogoff wrote about the “scars of not being able to publish sticky-price papers during the years of new neoclassical repression.” As time went on and members of the clique made up an ever-growing share of senior faculty and journal editors, the clique’s dominance became self-perpetuating – and impervious to intellectual failure.

OK, I know the members of the clique will be outraged – distorting incentives only apply to other people, only bureaucrats hijack institutions to serve their personal aggrandizement, etc.. As they say in Minnesota, ya sure, you betcha.

But what about me and my friends? Why, we’re pure and selfless seekers of truth. How dare anyone suggest otherwise?

OK, I think there is a sense in which I’m part of a counterclique. In fact, if you look at just about every economist in my cohort playing an influential role in formulating or discussing macroeconomic policy — Rogoff, Bernanke, Draghi, Blanchard, Summers — you’ll find that they studied macroeconomics at MIT or Harvard, and were formally or informally advised by Rudi Dornbusch and his good friend Stan Fischer.

As I said, international macro went in a different direction.

Basically, there are more large economies to study from, more banks, etc.

Of course, macro is hard since there are so, so many confounding variables.

On a different note: Krugman agrees that the current “richest class” is more outlandish than the “richest class” of yesteryear. But then again, there is a bigger gap now-a-days due to growing inequality.

Business Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is becoming an interesting person to read. (note; he was reputed to have been a good student while at UCLA, and yes, he got his degree). Here, he writes about a former (part) Atlanta Hawks owner. He had written an e-mail which brainstormed factors which might be keeping crowds at Hawks games from being at capacity; he wondered if there just weren’t enough affluent African Americans to fill the arena regularly and that making some of the entertainment “black” (music, cheeleaders) might discourage more white people from showing up. He points out that the owner was doing legitimate business thinking; after all: let’s reverse the situation. Don’t we sometimes try to be welcoming to racial minorities, say, by ensuring some diversity at games or having some diverse entertainment?

Voter Fraud oh, there is voter fraud all right. It might not be statistically significant. But think: who has the means to live in different locations? Answer: not most Democrats.

September 27, 2014 Posted by | economics, politics, politics/social, social/political | , , | Leave a comment

I’ll see your “Obama latte salute” and raise you a “Bush dog salute”

cfmbhowtosalute

Moral: a minor breach of etiquette by a President really means little. It won’t change the minds of those who either support or despise the President in question, nor will it change the minds of the supporters/detractors concerning the “other camp”. The other side is ALWAYS a bunch of willfully ignorant, two-faced hypocrites.

You want to know why I didn’t like President Bush? It is because:

1. At first, his tax cuts were heavily weighted toward the wealthy and
2. He invaded a country that didn’t attack us and really wasn’t threatening us.

President Obama has done neither.

September 24, 2014 Posted by | Barack Obama, politics, politics/social, social/political | | 8 Comments

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