2012 Elections by Congressional District

The data is here

For example, you can see that President Obama won 11 Texas Congressional Districts in 2012. I haven’t ground through the numbers to see how a CD decided election would have gone (Romney, but I don’t know the final score). One note: there were fewer “voted for a Congressional D but voted for President Obama” districts. However my district went for a Democrat (Bustos) by 6-7 points but went for President O by 17.

Note: if you are wondering how Democrats keep getting more votes but Republicans keep getting more House seats: part of that is gerrymandering and part of it is that Democrats tend to run up huge margins in their districts (mostly urban) whereas the Republicans win more districts but by somewhat closer margins. So the Democrats have more people behind them, but we tend to live clumped together.

Election Recap: Part I: my experience, Koehler and Bustos (IL-17 US House, IL-46, State Senate)

Workout notes Easy 4 mile walk over lunch.

Election Recap, Part I
I’ll probably keep a stream of these coming.

Personal Experiences

This election, I broke down my activities as follows:
National: mostly money to the Obama campaign.
Local: I attended fund raisers for the Koehler and Bustos campaign (several) and attended the Bustos-Schilling debate, and I spent money on each. I wrote a letter to the editor for Mr. Koehler. On election day, I did an “almost complete” walk route (had to double back to get rain gear) and part of another route. The idea: make sure our people got to the polls. Basically, I knocked on doors (about 80 total) and hung “please vote” door hangers on the door knobs.

Here is one of my routes (the morning one, with the “double back” to get rain gear:

Note: I did NOT count this as “training mileage” , though I get in a 5 mile run prior to starting this.

I probably put in another mile in the late afternoon, quitting when it got too dark to read the house numbers easily.

In between routes, I hung out at the Peoria Democrats headquarters and got to say “hi” to Ms. Bustos and Ms. Gordon (uncontested race) and the other volunteers. I spent part of the evening at the Democratic victory party for Senator Koehler.

About the canvass What was very different this time is that I canvassed in a neighborhood that I was familiar with; I actually knew many of the people whose houses I visited. Also, many recognized me because several of my regular running or walking training routes goes through that neighborhood. They “know” me as the old man who is always running or walking in the neighborhood.

I got encouragement and in one of the other neighborhoods, I got the “way to go” fist pump.

How the Dave Koeher race went
Many were worried as Pat Sullivan was well known and, up to the start of the race, reasonably well liked. He had success in small business and he resurrected some properties along the riverfront. Those accomplishments are genuine. He also had a lot of money backing him: the Republican party establishment, Aaron Schock (US House, IL-18) and my City Council Person Barbara Van Auken (who I worked for when she first ran).

He then ran some very negative ads; Koehler responded and then the Sullivan campaign screamed bloody murder. There were Sullivan signs all over the place, but ultimately, not enough votes. Note: Sullivan’s debate performances were very poor.

It ended 54-46 Koehler.

The Bustos race Bustos took on Tea Party Incumbent Bobby Schilling. Given that the IL-17 district was gerrymandered to make it more Democratic friendly, this was a tough sell for Mr. Schilling. He couldn’t be too antagonistic toward President Obama (who lead by 15 points in this district) but he could ill afford to lose what conservative support that he had.

Tactics: the NRCC ran some deceptive ads for him and he came out with a flier called The Illinois Democrat which featured him.

It didn’t work and Bustos won 53-47 (18,500 votes); she picked up her margins in Rock Island as well as in sections of Rockford and Peoria:

She won Fulton county by 200, Knox county (Galesburg) by 1200, Peoria County (part of it; the other part is in IL-18) by 8400, Rock Island by 6600, Tazewell by 200 (part of the county), Whiteside by 200 and Winnebago (part of Rockford) by 8700. Or put another way, her margin came from Rock Island plus parts of two larger cities.

Thursday Night Koehler “GOTV” rally

Thursday Night Barbara and I went to the Dave Koehler “Get out the Vote” rally.

Dave Koehler at the podium (incumbent IL-46 State Senator)

Cheri Bustos: D challenger for the US House IL-17

I am in this shot; I am talking to Lynn. I am wearing a blue and gold Navy jacket and a red Bradley sweatshirt. Yes, I have a very gray beard.

Another crowd shot; I am in it.

More Election Stuff: the state at 2 November (Friday Prior)

No workout this morning though I might stretch this afternoon.

Politics
Some people are making the case for Romney because if Obama wins, the Republicans in the House will do nothing but obstruct. Don’t give into political blackmail!

Jobs numbers are due out later this morning. My prediction: if they are good, the Republicans will cry “foul, the books are cooked”. If they are bad, they’ll go after Obama.

The race: First the Presidential Race, Next: IL-17
Prediction Maps
Electoral Vote

Election Projection

Intrade

Nate Silver

Odds/Percentages
Nate Silver: 80 percent.

Intrade Odds (these change by the hour!)

Iowa Electronic

The bookies

(note: Romney “3″ means you risk one dollar to win 3, or he has a 1/(3+1) = 1/4 chance; Obama 1/4 means you risk 4 dollars to win 1; this means Obama has a 4/(4+1) = 4/5 chance. The chances add to more than 1 since the house is supposed to always win)

IL-17 Race
The polls don’t look so good for Bustos:
(election projection)

But the Election Projection model gives Bustos a tiny edge due to Obama doing so well in the district (about a 15 point lead)

It is going to come down to turn out. I’ll work some on Saturday so I can work on election day.

Changing Neighborhoods, Static Presidential Race

Workout notes Part II 1800 yard swim; 600 free, 5 x (free/back/free/side/free/side/free/fly), 100 of free/fly, 100 of front/free.

Changing neighborhoods: no trick-or-treaters today. We used to have a lot of them but we have no families with small kids anymore. We have empty-nesters and college students.

Local Politics The Peoria Journal Star ran my letter today:

I am writing this letter in support of state Sen. Dave Koehler, who is running for reelection.

Sen. Koehler has built a well-deserved reputation for high integrity and for boldly tackling the tough issues. He has consistently fought for the long-term interests of his constituents.

Pat Sullivan is running against him with little more than a “trust me, I was successful in business” message. Nothing in his ads or in the debates indicates that he either understands or is interested in understanding the complexity of the challenges facing our state. Instead he offers simplistic slogans and vague promises to “fix it.”

Even worse, one of his later ads complains of Sen. Koehler attacking him, even after running very negative ads of his own from the very start! Sullivan’s ads are straight from the Karl Rove playbook.

I also notice that one of Sullivan’s ads has Aaron Schock supporting him. Schock has consistently fought for the interests of the wealthiest among us and has been taken to task for boasting of delivering money projects that he voted against!

Some tea party types didn’t like my letter too much; you can see the comments at the link.

IL-17 Aaron Schock (the incumbent who is in total command of the IL-18 race) is hosting a rally for Bobby Schilling. Note: the south side of Peoria (where I live) is in IL-17; Schock represents IL-18. I am currently in IL_18 but will be in IL-18 in the next Congress.

This is interesting, since Schilling appears to be trying to sell himself as a “moderate” and even a “Democrat” (by his mailings); now he is campaigning with a well know right-wing House member.

Note: Obama has a 15 point lead in IL-17; though the race is close in the polls (they go both ways) and the race is a toss up at this point, I am not sure that getting close to this right winger will help him. Evidently his campaign thinks that it will.

Presidential Race

I’ve learned some things from following this race:

1. Not all “close” states are created equal. You have some close states (e. g., North Carolina) where the race is close, but there are almost no persuadable voters. You have mostly white evangelicals (pro-Republican) and a mixture of research triangle types and blacks (pro-Democrat) and little else. In these states, it is almost all about turn-out; the candidates play to their respective bases here in order to get them excited. In the North Carolina example, though the polls are close, Mitt Romney will probably carry it.

On the other hand, there are some close states where there is some hope of peeling off “soft support” or persuading an undecided voter.

2. Not all “close” states are “tipping point states”. Example: North Carolina or Florida. If Obama wins either of these, it probably reflects the fact that he is in command elsewhere by larger margins. Hence these will probably NOT be the states to “put him over the top” should he win them (unlikely in both cases).

3. National versus state polling: sometimes state polling can give a clearer picture than national polling, even in terms of the final popular vote margin. If that sounds counter intuitive, read Nate Silver’s article.

Now about the race:

Electoral Vote

The Bookies

How to read this: Obama 1/4 means that one must bet 4 dollars to win 1 dollar (e. g., if Obama wins you get your 4 back plus one extra); this is roughly equivalent to Obama having a 4 in 5 chance (5 = 4+1) of winning (80 percent). Romney: 9/4 means you bet 4 to win 9 (you get 4 back plus an extra 9); this means that Romney has a 4 in 13 chance (4 + 9 = 13) of winning (30.8 percent). Note: the odds add up to more than 1 because the house always makes money; the bookies set the odds to get the same amount of money on each candidate.

Nate Silver

Intrade

There are others that give Obama more favorable odds; I’d rather not look at those right now.

Here is Election Projection (Electoral Vote is from a Democrat; Election Projection is from a Republican)

Note: Election Projection has a LOT of good data on House races.

All signs point to a narrow but static Obama lead. In football terms, Romeny is going to have to force a fumble, block a punt or run back a kick for a score, etc. I’d call Romney’s situation “tough” but NOT “desperate”.

Republican Dirty Tricks in IL-17, with video (and yes, I voted today!)

Workout notes Weights plus an untimed 5 mile walk. Weights: 5 sets of 10 pull ups, rotator cuff, 3 super sets of (rows: 10 x 200 Hammer machine, 10 x 160 pull downs, 10 x 52.5 curls (pulley)), bench press: 10 x 135, 8 x 165, 6 x 165, 5 x 165, incline: 2 sets of 7 x 135, 2 sets of 15 x 45 (dumbbell) military press (seated). I did vertical ab crunches as rest between sets.

Politics
IL-17 is a redistricted Congressional District in Illinois; it was redrawn after Illinois went from having 19 Congressional Districts to 18.

Historically: Lane Evans won it in 1982 and represented it until Phil Hare won it in 2006. But in 2010, Phil Hare was upset by a Tea Party Republican named Bobby Schilling.

However the district has been redrawn to be even more Democratic; currently Barack Obama leads by 15 points.

The Bustos-Schilling race has been close; by Election Projection:

CD-17
10/25/12 Stuart Rothenberg Pundit Change: Tilt DEM to Toss-up
10/15/12 Public Opinion (R) Schilling 51% – Bustos 44%
10/18/12 GBA Strategies (D) Bustos 49% – Schilling 45%
10/13/12 RATING CHANGE: Weak Schilling to Weak Bustos
10/09/12 WeAskAmerica Bustos 46% – Schilling 46%
10/10/12 RATING CHANGE: Weak Bustos to Weak Schilling
10/04/12 Anzalone Liszt Research (D) Bustos 45% – Schilling 44%

So, the Republicans are fighting tooth and nail to hold this seat. So watch out for the dirty tricks!

We have this ad from the NRCC:

Wow! There are some problems here though. For one, Ms. Bustos isn’t a member of that country club and never was. Also, this improvement was for water main repair, and had started BEFORE she took her seat.

More here.

Now there is this:

What you are seeing is a newspaper tabloid style mailer called “The Illinois Democrat” which is an extended ad for Bobby Schilling. You have to dig deep into the ad to find a mention that Mr. Schilling is the Republican candidate.

That isn’t a surprise; at the last Schilling-Bustos debate, Mr. Schilling failed to mention Mitt Romney once, but did have a few good words to say about President Obama.

Here is my (7 minute) video commentary.

Strong Performance by Cheri Bustos in the Peoria Debate (IL-17)

I just got back from a debate between candidates for the US House (IL-17): Cheri Bustos is the Democratic challenger whereas Bobby Schilling is the Tea Party Republican incumbent.

Note: the race is close: over the past few weeks there have been polls that showed (in chronological order) : Schilling by 2, Bustos by 1, Bustos by 4. Note: in this district, President Obama leads by 15 points.

So, it was clear: neither side could antagonize Obama supporters; in fact neither candidate mentioned Mitt Romney ONCE whereas both praised President Obama to at least a degree.

Of course, Mr. Schilling did so deceptively: he mentioned that President Obama didn’t want to “raise taxes on the job creators”. But when Mr. Schilling said that, he was responding to Ms. Bustos talking about the plan to let the upper income Bush tax cuts expire and President Obama was talking about the middle class. Mr. Obama did agree to some compromises in order to get some indirect stimulus passed (payroll tax holidays, extension of unemployment benefits, etc.)

Mr. Schilling also talked about President Obama signing some free trade agreements and tried to conflate these with earlier trade agreements (e. g. NAFTA), and he attempted to defend Mr. Ryan’s Medicare “Voucher” plan (which it indeed is), though he didn’t mention Mr. Ryan either.

Ms. Bustos kept pounding away at Mr. Schilling’s party line adherence to the Republican “trickle down economics” policies.

Note: Mr. Schilling fired at attack (on something that Ms. Bustos 401K plan invested in and has since divested in) and Ms. Bustos pointed out that a Republican ad, which Mr. Schilling “mostly” stood by, was fiction. Mr. Schilling did say that he “didn’t agree with all” of those Republican PAC attack ads though he didn’t mention what he didn’t agree with and he did call them “factual”

(they were “factual” in dollar amounts and in that they involved a road that ran by Ms. Bustos’ house and goes to a country club…which Ms. Bustos does NOT belong to…and the 625K project was approved BEFORE Ms. Bustos took office)

I think that Ms. Bustos better connected with her potential constituencies as, well, she genuinely holds their values.

Personal note: after the debate, Ms. Bustos told me that she could see me shaking my head when Mr. Schilling was repeating his RNC talking points.

My wife said that Ms. Bustos came off as more authentic.

But ultimately the voters will have to decide.

Presidential and Congressional races tighten…and dualism and football…

Football

I watched a bit of the Jets-Texans NFL game last night. I went to bed at the half (tired) but I wanted to see some of the NFL’s best team (IMHO) and I wanted to watch a former Illinois star play (defensive end). Well, the rookie didn’t play all that much (save special teams) though he was dominant in the college games that I saw. That goes to show you: to start in the NFL, you have to be “crazy-good”; heck you have to be awesome just to make an NFL roster.

And so, I have zero patience for someone who says “college team X could beat NFL team Y”. Forget it. College team X probably doesn’t have a single player who could start for an NFL team RIGHT NOW. They might have one or maybe two players who might work themselves into an NFL starting line up….AFTER months of mini-camps, training camps and the like (the Washington and Indianapolis quarterbacks come to mind). And remember, every NFL team has NFL starters at every position.

The Political Races
No doubt: the race has tightened:

(intrade: going between 60 to 64)

Iowa Electronic

And Nate Silver’s model has it at about 74-75.

This race was going to tighten anyway, but the debate helped Mr. Romney. I saw the debate this way:

(note: President O is left handed…but the cartoon is funny anyway)

But I have followed the race closely, watched the Republican debates and read Mr. Romney’s book. If this were my first introduction to him, I’d find him reasonable.

And yes, a recent poll put Mr. Romney in the lead (Pew Poll and a recent PPP poll). There has been a change in the campaign e-mails: The Romney campaign went to “hey, we can see victory we CAN DO THIS” whereas the Obama campaign e-mails went from “don’t get complacent” to “don’t panic; if we do our jobs and we show up with our best game, we’ll win this thing”.

All of this, with ALL of the battleground polling, points to a tight race where President Obama is the favorite, albeit not an overwhelming one. Mr. Romney could win. Silver lining: if Mr. Romney wins, he MIGHT govern like he did when he was governor and he might have political cover to improve Obamacare (he’ll make noise about “repeal” but he’ll tweak it and declare it to be completely different) and have the cover to pass a “conservative” stimulus package. At times, conservatives are better situated to make liberal tweaks and adjustments to policy…and visa versa.

At the IL-17 level, I got an e-mail from the Cheri Bustos campaign saying that there was a poll saying that she was leading. True, there was….but I want to see ALL of the polls (e. g., the other 9 or so that show Schilling ahead). Cherry picking polls makes for feel good fantasy, but that is about it. Basically, Ms. Bustos position in this race is roughly where Mr. Romney’s race is: behind, but gaining and far from hopeless.

My big error I admit that I thought that Mr. Romney was in a box; he turned so hard right during the primary I thought that he was stuck there for the general. But I completely underestimated how much Republicans despise Barack Obama; he is to them what George W. Bush was to us in 2004 (though we hated Mr. Bush for what he actually did rather than for imaginary reasons). Anyway, the Republicans are completely willing to overlook a bit of public moderation in exchange for winning….I just hope that Mr. Romney’s moderation is genuine (e. g., what he was when he was governor). Evidently Mr. Romney isn’t saddled with the purity trolls that we are saddled with.

Hurting your candidate
I wouldn’t be caught dead with this bumper sticker on my car:

I wonder if some wily Republicans put this one out. Talk about alienating people…..yes I can be a strident asshole at times. But I try to limit my attacks to attacks on IDEAS and not on people…ok, I attack people at times, but I only attack other well-off, well educated people who should know better and who can fight back (if they choose to do so). To look down on people who have had limited opportunities in life is just tacky.

Religion, spirituality and woo-woo

Yes….church billboards and “return to Jesus” signs and billboards abound…but if you have an atheist one that is Bad, Bad Bad!!!

Dualism
This is an interesting pair of videos that explains more or less what I believe about people having some sort of “dual” or “spiritual” nature.

Politics: Disgusted with Illinois Democratic Political Leadership

I admit that I’ve been doing a slow burn over the IL-17 race. Yes, this district has been gerrymandered to be Democrat; Obama won the precincts that constitute this district handily in 2008 and the precursor to this district was solid Democrat until 2010 until Bobby Schilling (tea party extremist) upset Phil Hare in 2010.

So the Illinois Democrats (and their representatives in Congress) decided to take this seat back. They even strong armed potential candidates into NOT running against Cheri Bustos, the current Democratic candidate for IL-17. She won a three way race in the primary, against artificially weak opposition.

Yes, there were complaints that she was a weak candidate, but the Democratic party higher ups told potential primary rivals that they “would make her into a good candidate”.

What BS. Yes, she has some personal connections to Senator Dick Durbin, but so what? Isn’t the election supposed to be about getting someone who will back Democratic Party values in Congress? That doesn’t mean merely “holding those values”; it also means having the political skill to get elected to begin with.

And she is losing…..losing in this “made to order district”. Yes, some of the attacks against here are blatantly dishonest and unfair. (she was attacked for voting for 625K for a water main project…one that was already in progress…but it was on a road that ran near her house and to a country club…which she was NOT a member of…)

But she is also getting beat by this:

24 seconds into it: “Bobby is one of us”….(great reason not to elect this jerk!) But who is Bobby Schilling really for?

Mr. Schilling is running on a combination of “return to Jesus/taxes on millionaires are too high” message…and winning.

Great job, Illinois Democratic leaders. I swear, if our party leadership (Illinois) were football coaches, they’d be fired. But it appears that they are more interested in keeping “their own” in power instead of getting the best candidates to run and win.

I’d give the local Republicans a shot, except their platform is a contradictory, toxic mix of rabid social conservatism populism with Gilded Age pro-millionaire economics.

How I wish we had a parliamentary system in place.

Walking, Swimming and Political Yard Signs..

Early morning: 10K walk in roughly 1:24 (forgot the time; I was just over 56 at 4 miles). Then I did my back PT, piriformis stretches, etc.
Note: I found that doing some free squats (ALL the way down) keeps my legs from getting stiff later in the day.

Lunch: Tracy wasn’t available for lunch so I swam 1800 yards (1 mile). 500 easy (10:02), 10 x 50; first 2 on the 1:05, rest on the 1.
Then 5 x (25 3g, 75 free) on 2 (made them all easily), then 3 x 100 IM to cool down.

It was a bit grim in the pool; only one lane line and there were a couple of students but mostly out of shape old people. This is relevant to be because I often use other swimmers to push myself.

Political Yard Signs
The Democrats had distributed their yard signs a week or so ago; this morning I saw the Republican ones. I saw some Romney signs, some Sullivan signs and ONE Schilling sign. What I noticed: the more expensive houses with the more manicured lawns tended to have Republican signs; the less expensive houses with wild flower type gardens tended to have Democrat signs.

I don’t have an Obama sign; I live in Illinois and putting up an Obama sign here is a waste of campaign money. We do have a Bustos (Il-17) and a Koehler (State Senate) signs in the yard. Both of these races are competitive; turn out will be crucial to us.

I remember the 1988 election between Dukakis and Bush (H. W. Bush). I walked to the University of Texas campus and once I counted yard signs: 21 Dukakis to 3 for Bush. I joked that Dukakis would win in a landslide! (Yes, I knew better; this was the old liberal neighborhood syndrome).

But this little exercise got me to thinking: of the groups that I belong to, are they more Democratic or Republican than average?

Runners/race walkers: of course, this depends on the area; the runners at the Austin 30K LOVED my Obama shirt. So a better question would be: compared to the AVERAGE of the AREA, are those at running or walking races more or less conservative than the general area?

My guess: they are more conservative; that is based on road racing being a mostly white activity and being one that attracts more affluent people.

Math/science conferences Scientists lean liberal; that is no surprise. But my guess is that engineering and business conferences would lean conservative, as would statistics conferences.

Sports events Probably neutral; SEC fans would be conservative whereas Pac 12 fans would be more liberal.