26 November 09

Workout notes 2 miles at Barton Springs in 1:12:58 (36:07/36:51). 39 F air temperature (68 F water); not my fastest but this was in line with what I do when I am at the start of swim training; I’ll take it given I haven’t swam longer workouts lately.

The pool was almost empty at the start (6:30 am); some tri-geeks and old farts showed up when I left.

Travel Yesterday, traffic on I-35 from Dallas to Austin was HORRIBLE; that trip took about 4:30 when it normally takes 3; mind you there weren’t accidents. This was pure traffic. I hate this stretch of road; it is by far the worst part of the trip.

One note: in Dallas we stopped at a sports bar to eat; it was called the Sports City Cafe. The food was good and they had lots of TVs including one at each booth. The waitresses wore black cropped spandex shorts and pantyhose; young guys would have loved that.

Posts

Sports
Women’s spectator sports struggle to draw fans. Though men don’t watch women’s sports that much, they watch more than women do!

But that doesn’t explain why WNBA attendance was on a steady decline even in boom years. Doesn’t explain why, four decades after Title IX was supposed to bring an explosion of interest in women’s sports and 13 years after David Stern’s creation tipped off, that the league continues to struggle.

The play, by all accounts, has never been better. The attendance has never been worse, off nearly 30 percent from its peak in 1998.

Two franchises folded in the past year, and it could get worse as NBA owners such as the Maloof family in Sacramento shed their teams. The deciding game of the WNBA finals sold out only after Phoenix Suns players bought and gave away tickets in the upper bowl of US Airways Center, and television ratings remain minuscule.

The LPGA Tour, meanwhile, will have its smallest schedule in nearly 40 years, with 24 tournaments — and just 13 of them in the United States. There are huge gaps between tournaments and, although prize money has not been announced, it is likely to be down.

It wasn’t supposed to be like this. New generations of women who grew up playing sports were supposed to be the foundation of fans who would rather go watch women play basketball or soccer rather than pay even more money to watch men do the same thing.

But it hasn’t happened.[...]

Interestingly enough, the reason professional women’s sports have struggled to survive isn’t necessarily that men don’t watch them — it’s that women don’t either.

A survey earlier this year by Scarborough Research, a marketing research company, revealed that 14 percent of adults had some interest in the LPGA. But 63 percent of those fans were men, and just 10 percent of women said they were interested in the sport.

The WNBA numbers are similar, if not so lopsided. Again, 14 percent of fans said they had some interest in the product, with men outnumbering women by a slight margin.

So what do women watch? Well, they’re big on the Olympics, but they also like sports involving men.

One out of every three women identify themselves as “loyal” NFL fans, while one in four feel the same way about major league baseball. Meanwhile, just 6 percent say they are “loyal” WNBA fans, the same percentage that identify themselves as fans of monster trucks.

With those kind of numbers, it’s easy to see why the Maloofs shut down the Monarchs, and why sponsors are shutting off the LPGA. There’s not nearly enough critical mass for either sport to grow past niche status.

Yes, some men will watch because some men will watch anything involving a ball.

Political Correctness in Academia gone mad: in Great Britian, some are proposing that the word “fail” not be used any more to describe academic performance and the phrase “deferred success” be used instead.

see more Epic Fails

Politics

President Obama verus Governor Palin in 2012? Nate Silver does some analysis of approval rating versus head to head poll numbers of Obama-Palin and Obama-Romney. Evidently, Romney is a bigger threat (but not much of one). Silver also goes on to address the practice of cherry picking data to back up one’s claims.

Speaking of President Obama, I certainly don’t agree with him on everything; I wish that he were a stronger advocate for civil liberties in the face of governmental power.

However, I strongly approve of his moves in the direction of clean energy.

Security: Schneier reports on the practice of computer users blowing off many computer security practices; it appears that security practices are often driven by things other than evidence.

Science Remember the guy who was in a vegetative state allegedly being able to communicate again? Don’t believe it; this was a case of someone typing messages from the guy, purportedly guided by the guy’s hand. I get sick of these woo-woos at times.

Humor (sort of) Hey ladies, do you complain that your butt is too big? Not only does Sir Mix A Lot like Big Butts, but some women pay to have implants to get a bigger butt (and sometimes there are problems with those implants)

So, hey, ladies, if you have a big butt, put on spandex and do those deep bending stretches!

I remember my big-butted wife wearing black spandex tights and doing the above stretch in the gym; but being in public I couldn’t react the way that I wanted to. She flashed me a sly grin and said that I needed to focus on my own workout.

Checotah, Oklahoma, 24 November 09

Workout notes 5 miles: 1 AMT, 2 elliptical, 2 Stairmaster. On the stairmaster I am learning to do without the rails for balance.

We had a pleasant drive to Checotah, Oklahoma from Peoria. We stopped to eat at Bandana’s Barbecue just outside of St. Louis and at Maggie’s Mexican in Pryor, Oklahoma.

Posts
Football: here is a nice article about the human side of the Notre Dame football coach, Charlie Weis:

[...]
“Sunday is the most excruciating day,” Weis says, referring to the pain that he feels in both legs, “because I’ve been standing up at least four hours the day before. It’ll start feeling better by Monday night.”

The ravaged knees are the result of an accidental blindside hit Weis took during last season’s Michigan game (although he has nerve damage in his lower extremities dating back to 2002, the result of a botched gastric bypass surgery).
[...]

Weis’s catastrophically impaired limbs are just one unforeseen trauma of his encore return to South Bend. During his first go-round, as a student from 1974-78, he was anonymous and single. Now the most visible and highly compensated person on campus, he has a family: his wife, Maura, son Charlie Jr., and daughter Hannah.

“The damage to Maura and Charlie Jr. is irreparable,” says Weis, referring to the personal nature of the attacks he has been subject to for years now. “It’s watching me get hammered. I’ll never forgive the people who character-assassinated me without even knowing me. Those people did irreparable damage to my wife and son, and I’ll never forgive them.”

On Saturday, Maura Weis, for the first time since her husband was hired, opted not to attend a Notre Dame home game.

“They have the right to criticize the coach for being 6-5,” says Weis. “They have that right. It’s all the other stuff. You think I don’t know that I’m fat? Duh!”

Asked if he should be gone, where would Charlie Jr. would go to college, the coach reponded: “I know where he won’t be going to college.”

I am sorry for the personal troubles. And I have to admit that I was surprised that his teams didn’t play better, especially on defense. Then again, I was surprised that the previous coach (Tyrone Willingham) didn’t work out either, given his success at Stanford.

I wonder if it is Notre Dame’s special set of circumstances or something else.

Education It appears that the Obama administration is serious about mathematics and science education:

President Obama announced on Monday a campaign to enlist companies and nonprofit groups to spend money, time and volunteer effort to encourage students, especially in middle and high school, to pursue science, technology, engineering and math.

“You know the success we seek is not going to be attained by government alone,” Mr. Obama said kicking off the initiatives. “It depends on the dedication of students and parents, and the commitment of private citizens, organizations and companies. It depends on all of us.”

Mr. Obama, accompanied by students and a robot that scooped up and tossed rocks, also announced an annual science fair at the White House.

“If you win the N.C.A.A. championship, you come to the White House,” he said. “Well, if you’re a young person and you’ve produced the best experiment or design, the best hardware or software, you ought to be recognized for that achievement, too.

“Scientists and engineers ought to stand side by side with athletes and entertainers as role models, and here at the White House, we’re going to lead by example. We’re going to show young people how cool science can be.”

The campaign, called Educate to Innovate, focuses mainly on activities outside the classroom. For example, Discovery Communications has promised to use two hours of the afternoon schedule on its Science Channel cable network for commercial-free programming geared toward middle school students.

Science and engineering societies are promising to provide volunteers to work with students in the classroom, culminating in a National Lab Day in May. [...]

Speaking of mathematical literacy, my guess is that man will miss Eugene Robinson’s point here:

ntellectually, it’s simple to understand why it might make sense for women — those who have no special risk factors for breast cancer — to wait until they’re 50, rather than 40, to start getting mammograms. The analysis by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, which made the recommendation, looks sound. According to the panel, a whopping 10 percent of mammograms result in false-positive readings that can lead to unjustified worry and unneeded procedures, such as biopsies. In a small number of cases, women are subjected to cancer treatment or even a mastectomy they didn’t need.

This harm, the task force reasoned, outweighs the benefits of discovering relatively few cases of fast-growing, life-threatening breast cancer in women in their 40s through annual mammography. It is also true that waiting to begin regular mammograms until a woman reaches 50 — and reducing the frequency to once every two years, as the task force recommended — would save a portion of the more than $5 billion spent on mammography in the United States each year.

Most people won’t know what “10 percent false positives” means. It means that out of every 100 tests performed, 10 will show “positive” but be false! It is unlikely that there will be any “true positives” out of 100.

Or, put another way:

The probability that an abnormal mammogram is due to cancer increases with age. A large study in Northern California estimated positive predictive values for abnormal mammograms at 2 percent to 4 percent among women aged 40-49, 5 percent to 9 percent among women aged 50-59, and 7 percent to 19 percent among women aged 60 and older.3,9 Positive predictive values were also higher among women with a family history of breast cancer in two studies.3

That is, among women 40-49, a positive mammogram means that the person who had the positive reading has about 2-4 percent chance of actually having breast cancer; the similar number rises to 5-9 percent for women over 50. Keep in mind that the typical 40-49 year old woman has a 1.5 percent chance of developing breast cancer within 10 years; that is, having a positive result conveys only a tiny bit of information!

23 November 09 (pm)

Just some random stuff:

College Parents: help cut the umbilical cord when your kid goes to college:

(via Rate Your Students)

Sarah Palin: Ok, you probably could have done the same with some Obama supporters; the point is that people really get sold on an image and not on substance. Sure, I might have known what then Senator Obama had done and where he stood, but many of his supporters did not.

(and ok, it is fun to laugh at conservative idiots)

Security article: An article makes claims:

Decertifying “Terrorist” Pilots

This article reads like something written by the company’s PR team.

When it comes to sleuthing these days, knowing your way within a database is as valued a skill as the classic, Sherlock Holmes-styled powers of detection.

Safe Banking Systems Software proved this very point in a demonstration of its algorithm acumen — one that resulted in a disclosure that convicted terrorists actually maintained working licenses with the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration.

The algorithm seems to be little more than matching up names and other basic info:

It used its algorithm-detection software to sift out uncommon names such as Abdelbaset Ali Elmegrahi, aka the Lockerbie bomber. It found that a number of licensed airmen all had the same P.O. box as their listed address

Schneier (the author of the security blog that I am linking to) goes on:

Although I’m all for annoying international arms dealers, does anyone know the procedures for FAA decertification? Did the FAA have the legal right to do this, after being “made aware” of some information by a third party?

Of course, they don’t talk about all the false positives their system also found. How many innocents were also decertified?

Oh yes, the good old “false positives”. You’d be surprised at how many people don’t take these into account in not only security and drug testing areas, but in medical testing areas as well. For example, many years ago, I asked my doctor if I should be stress tested. He said that while I had a remote chance of having a heat attack, any positive stress test result he might obtain on me would almost certainly be a false positive; in short, a stress test would reveal almost no information!

But I digress; I love the final line of Shneier’s article:

they don’t mention the fact that, in the 9/11 attacks, FAA certification wasn’t really an issue. “Excuse me, young man. You can’t hijack and fly this aircraft. It says right here that the FAA decertified you.”

23 November 2009

Workout notes I stayed up too late watching the Bears loose to the Eagles; the Bears basically lost it when they had to settle for field goals 4 different times; thrice in the first half. The final was 24-20, Eagles.

So I ended up swimming 2200 yards; the form felt ok; 500 warm up, 500 drill/swim (fins), 5 x (25 3g, 75 free) on the 2 (first rep was 1:47, then the rest: 1:43-1:45), 5 x (25 fly, 25 free, 25 back, 25 free) on the 2 (1:50-1:53), 200 paddle cool-down.

Note: my wife actually made it to the gym. She got there earlier than I did!

Posts
The wingnuts were having shirts printed up with a Psalm reference:

We’ve seen a lot of comment about a new twist on the right, a whole campaign (t- shirts, bumper stickers, e-mails and more) all built on the biblical passage in Psalms 109 which says in part:

May his days be few;
may another seize his position.
May his children be orphans,
and his wife a widow.

What these morons didn’t know is that if one reads the whole Psalm, King David was lamenting that people were saying the above about him!!! The psalm writer was NOT saying this about anyone else:

For wicked and deceitful mouths are opened against me,
speaking against me with lying tongues.
They beset me with words of hate,
and attack me without cause.
In return for my love they accuse me,
even while I make prayer for them.
So they reward me evil for good,
and hatred for my love.

The wicked and deceitful mouths are opened against me. He goes on:

They say, Appoint a wicked man against him;
let an accuser stand on his right.
When he is tried, let him be found guilty;
let his prayer be counted as sin.
May his days be few;
may another seize his position.
May his children be orphans,
and his wife a widow.
May his children wander about and beg;
may they be driven out of the ruins they inhabit.
May the creditor seize all that he has;
may strangers plunder the fruits of his toil.

In short, these idiots don’t know what they are talking about. Surprised?

22 November 09

Workout notes 10 mile McNaughton loop in 3:13; note that I missed the Golf Hill turn and doubled back and cost myself about 5 minutes. The trail was slightly dryer.

Note: after the fact, my right leg (lower hamstring/calf area) is a bit achy. Two 10 milers in a weekend was pushing it a bit.

Posts You’ve heard about the change on the recommendations on mammograms. Of course, there are some complaints. But here is a nice explanation as to what is going on:

On Monday evening, the United States Preventative Services Task Force (USPSTF) released new recommendations for screening mammography, which it published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, that have, let me tell you, shaken my specialty to the core. I must admit I was surprised at the recommendations. No, I wasn’t surprised that recommendations to scale back mammographic screening were released. I saw it coming, based on a series of studies, some of which I’ve discussed right here on this very blog. What surprised me is how much of a departure from current mammography guidelines the USPSTF recommendations were and, even more so, that they were released this year. I hadn’t expected recommendations like this this soon. But I have to deal with them, and so I might as well try to help my readers understand them too.

The first thing that women need to understand is that these recommendations are for asymptomatic women at average risk for breast cancer undergoing routine screening for breast cancer. They are not for women judged to be at high risk due to genetic mutations, strong family history, or other factors producing a high risk for breast cancer. Neither are they for women who are not completely asymptomatic. If you’re a woman, particularly if you’re over 40, and have felt a lump, it needs to be worked up. Period. Screening by definition is administering a test to an asymptomatic population. These recommendations should not be used as a reason to delay or forego the evaluation of masses or other breast abnormalities. I mention this because I sometimes see confusion between screening and diagnostic mammography.

[...]

The summary for patients states:

The USPSTF found fair evidence that women who have screening mammography die of breast cancer less frequently than women who do not have it, but the benefits minus harms are small for women aged 40 to 49 years. Benefits increase as women age and their risk for breast cancer increases. However, there are relatively few studies of mammography for women aged 75 years or older. The potential harms of mammography include anxiety, procedures, and costs due to false-positive results and receiving a diagnosis and treatment of cancer that never would have surfaced on its own within a woman’s natural life time. They found that the benefit of mammography every 2 years is nearly the same as that of doing it every year, but the harms are likely to be half as common. They found no evidence that self- or clinical examination reduces breast cancer death rates. [...]

n the meatime, screening asymptomatic people for disease always comes down to a balance of risks and benefits, as well as values. In the case of breast cancer, starting at 40 appears only to modestly increase the number of lives saved but at a high cost, while screening yearly only increases the detection of breast cancer marginally compared to screening every other year, also at a high cost in terms of more biopsies and more overdiagnosis. Whether the cost is worth it or not comes down to two levels. First and foremost, what matters is the woman being screened, what she values, and what her tolerance is for paying the price of screening at an earlier age, such as a high risk for overdiagnosis, excessive biopsies, and overtreatment in order to detect cancer earlier and a relatively low probability of avoiding death from breast cancer because of screening. Then there’s the policy level, where we as a society have to decide what tradeoffs we’re willing to make to save a life that otherwise would have been lost to breast cancer. Although screening programs and recommendations should be based on the best science we currently have, deciding upon the actual cutoffs of who is and is not screened and how often unavoidably involves value judgments. Such decisions always will.

Surf to the article to see some numbers.

Notre Dame’s Football woes…are President Obama’s fault!

I kid you not; I’ve been reading the responses at some football articles and there are fans who are blaming Notre Dame’s poor play on President Obama!

Really:

(post 150)After the ARROGANCE of Fr.Jenkins in awarding an Honorary Degree to the “Messiah”…despite loud, angry protests from the Alumni….let them sink…lower and lower and lower!
Jack from PA [...]

(post 126) Typically a huge Notre Dame fan because they are such a unique and awesome institution. Since abortion loving Obama came to campus I could not care if they lose every game here on out. Stick to your roots Notre Dame!!!!!!!!!!!

(post 118)
Well as least ND gave Obama an honorary degree.
You really want to know what ND football problem is; lack of character, lack of identity. Even the University of Miami has an indentity; partying and getting laid. When one of the worlds most well known Catholic Universities honors a champion of abortion “rights”, they have betrayed the basic precepts on which they were founded. ND is an empty shell encrusted with rotting, empty tradition. Knute Rockne comming back from the grave couldn’t help this team win. Sad.

(post 11)
and that boys and girls is what happens when you let Obama speak at a Cathoilc university!

Gotta love it,,,,

Update: I added to this at Daily Kos.

21 November 2009 (mid-day)

Workout notes I was a lazy dog and slept in until after 7 am; I made it to McNaughton Park by 9:20 and did a slow loop (3:15) in hiking boots (10 miles; hilly and muddy). Most of the trail was average; the foundation loop was muddier than average due to the recent rains.

Posts

Football

I am watching college football; I saw the end of the Michigan-Ohio State game (which OSU won 21-10).
Yes, OSU wore throw back uniforms.

(photo from yahoo)

Yes, Ohio State wore “throwback” uniforms. Note: Tressel (Ohio State’s coach) has a higher winning percentage than Woody Hayes. I say that because an Ohio State fan said something about Coach Tressel being under fire (ridiculous).

Right now, Connecticut and Notre Dame are tied 17-17; ND raced out to a 14-0 lead; Connecticut scored the next 10 points to make it 14-10 at the half.

The second half saw the Irish drive and kick a field goal; the Huskies ran back the kickoff for a touchdown to tie the game.

Speaking of uniforms, this site keeps track of the Oregon football uniforms.

Personally I like this set the best:

and this set the least

Update on Connecticut versus Notre Dame

Notre Dame dodged a bullet. ND went up 20-17 (helped by an ND interception in their own end zone) and Connecticut drove the ball. They ran well; but had two TDs called back due to holding penalties. One was questionable. So they kicked a field goal to tie it at 20-20 with 1 minute to go.

On ND’s next possession, they fumbled a pass completion and the Huskies recovered at the 41; they drove but missed a 3X yard field goal with no time remaining.

So it went to over time; the Huskies scored a touchdown on a pass and are up 27-20; now it is ND’s possession.

I don’t know how it will end up, but by all rights, Connecticut should have had this game won by now. Though ND has a total yard advantage (due to the kick off return), they have ran for over 200 yards.

Still, ND now has the ball at the 4 yard line with first and goal. ND tied it up…well, after the point. They are reviewing the play, but the receiver had both feet in (and you only need one). The point is good.

Well, the game is not boring; Notre Dame games seldom are.

Second overtime: ND ended up making a field goal; now they are up 30-27 but they haven’t stopped UConn’s running yet. But they opened with a pass? No problem; they gained 8 yards on a run on second down and appear to have it at the 15; yep; first down. They have run so well all game long.

If the Huskies win, I’ll give their offensive line the player of the game.

Another big run; 11 yard right up the middle; huge hole and strong running by Dixon.

Ok, they ran it in…touchdown Huskies; they win 33-30. Yes, they deserve it.

It was a great game for the fan; this is the kind of hitting that went on.

Hunting Season is Here!

Every hunting season:

1. I am leery of the trails that I use.

2. I think of this cartoon:

20 November 2009: sports on my mind

Track and Field: is a competitor male or female? It isn’t always clear.

Football
This came out a while ago. Texas Tech lost to Texas A&M by a score of 52-30; this is the same Aggie team that got scorched 62-14 by Kansas State, 65-10 by Oklahoma and 47-19 by Arkansas. So how did the Texas Tech coach handle it?

That’s right: it was “the fat little girlfriends”. Yes, he used that term repeatedly.

Speaking of coaches: Coach Mangino is under fire for “being abusive”. Frankly, I wonder if this has more to do with his losing 5 games in a row than anything else; sure he said stuff that was over the line but I wonder how seriously the Kansas administration would have taken complaints from millennials and their helicopter parents had Mangino been, say, 8-2 in this season.

College Revenue Sports

One wonders: is there academic cheating going on? There are some disturbing reports out there.

Other faculty responded in a variety of ways. But, according to the moderators, some division I athletes sent in responses such as this one:

Here’s the problem. Most college faculty are a bunch of flaming faggots who never played team sports, don’t understand what teamwork even is, and have such an unfair hatred of anything physical that student athletes get prejudiced against all of the time. I know because I’m a Division 1 athlete and I’ve seen it first hand. Luckily our coaches provide us with tutors who do most of our work and I don’t feel guilty about it. I’m WORKING for the university, bringing in much TV ducats, and if my queer little history professor doesn’t like it, then he can take his $80,000 salary and stick it. Tell him I’ll see him on TV next year. Fucker.

(emphasis mine)

Let’s help educate the moron who sent this in:

1. The revenue sports do bring in money…for the athletic departments. They do NOT bring in money for the school:

Athletics-generated revenue aren’t keeping pace with costs. Only about 40 schools claim their athletic departments are self-sufficient. To compensate for deficits, most athletic departments are increasingly relying on money from their schools — money that otherwise could be used for academics or other enterprises. Student bodies also are helping pay the tab, sometimes without knowing it. About 60% of all Division I schools rely on student fees to help the athletic department. These fees generally range from $50 to $1,000 a year for full-time students. In return, students get free admission to games.

2. Few division I athletes end up making a living at their sport: about 1 percent though 21 percent plan to.

3. Even if a few make the pros and a few of these make big money, they don’t always end up with all of that money. Sometimes they end up broke:

n 12 years, Antoine Walker(notes) made more than $110 million playing professional basketball moderately well. Take away taxes, throw in some adidas endorsement money and a “NBA Live 99″ cover, and he’s left with, what, $60-to-65 million?

Whatever the details, it was a big chunk of change, which, amazingly, wasn’t enough.

That’s right, during the last several months, the once multi-millionaire athlete has been pursued by multiple financial institutions for unpaid debts.

In fact, according to Shira Springer of The Boston Globe, “Employee No. 8″ owes more than $4 million to his creditors and is facing felony check fraud charges in Las Vegas. All of this at the age of 33.

Of course, I doubt that the writer of the response that I quoted knows any of this. He certainly show no sign of being capable of understanding any of this.

My experience At the University of Texas, I had athletes in my classes when I was a TA. These, by and large, earned their own grades under their own steam; I grew to like several of them. At my current university, many get their degrees, again, under their own steam, even though a few are now playing professionally.

So my experience with the athletes has been good, but that is me.

Racism in the News; 20 November 2009.

Kennett, Missouri:

The situation is that back in 2007, a young woman was accused of cutting in line at a Wal Mart. Tempers flared and the police were called. Now this woman is going to trial and being accused of various crimes ranging from assaulting a police officer and disturbing the peace:

Then things got worse: the KKK put out some cards and a police officer gave one of the cards to someone who was planning on marching in protest; the officer claims that he was informing them of the cards being left out there. That sounds a bit suspicious to me; for example when neo-nazis put out flyers about me, the police were very clear in their disapproval of the flyers. I don’t see how this could be a “misunderstanding”:

(From Nikki’s Nest)

My take: of course, I don’t know what happened. But even if this woman is an unpleasant jerk who cut in line, this had no business escalating to an arrest and all of this expense.

Bottom line: it isn’t like in the movies; often the victims of racial injustice ARE unsympathetic people. That doesn’t mean that they weren’t treated unjustly; check out what was said about 4:50 into the first video.

Speaking of racism and a display of a lack of class: check out the public billboards that are listed here.