6 November 2010 (am)

Obama on the Bush tax cuts. Of course, the Republicans want to preserve them for the richest.
Note: I disagree with the President over spending; I think that we need a larger stimulus bill and that this focus on the debt and deficit is misguided.

Science This ritual of poisoning fish has lead to some fish evolving a resistance to this poison!

5 November 2010 PM

Workout notes 5 mile walk (3.5 with Lynn) then rotator cuff stuff on my own. It was chilly and crisp.

Politics I understand the outrage: people in the finance industry and/or big businesses take big risks for a big profit. But when they fail, they get a bail out because their failure would mean massive damage to others (in terms of lost jobs, inability to get loans, etc.).

But to me, the answer is stronger regulation and not the stuff that the Republicans are offering. And the answer isn’t to listen to Republican economists who have been mostly wrong.

So what about the 2012 election? President Obama is in better shape than his critics might realize. Remember that his approval, while under 50 percent, is much higher than that of Congress and that of the Republicans in Congress.

Speaking of politics: which polls were most accurate? Clearly, Rasmussen was the worst.

Science
In a way, I am glad that advanced mathematics isn’t that popular. I don’t have many people trying to get me to pay attention to crazy ideas such as those who think that the Large Hadron Collider will somehow create a dangerous new particle:

A group called Heavy Ion Alert claims that the LHC could create a dangerous breed of strangelet — that is, a never-before-seen combination of quarks that includes some with a strange flavor. In this case, “strange” is a technical term, representing one of the six flavors of quarks. (The others are up, down, charm, bottom and top.) The claim is that just the wrong kind of strangelet could turn nearby atoms into strangelets as well, setting off a catastrophic chain reaction.

The case for killer strangelets is similar to the case for globe-gobbling microscopic black holes. If there’s any chance at all that the LHC could produce an Earth-killer, the experiment should not be done. “For Earth, one [chance] in 1,000, or one in 100,000 is still something you don’t want to do,” James Blodgett, a member of the group, told me this week.

The reassurances from particle physicists follow a similar format as well. The most recent LHC safety report says theory as well as observations would rule out such a catastrophe. If such strangelets could arise, they would have been observed beyond Earth, where there are cosmic-ray collisions far more powerful than anything the LHC can dish out. The report’s authors say it’s theoretically harder to create the dangerous kind of strangelets at higher energies — which means that if anything bad could happen, it would have happened at RHIC.

We also don’t have major science magazines trying to set new paradigms for mathematics they way that they try to do for evolution.

Did Creationism Help Quinn win the IL-Governor’s race?

Here is an interesting take on Pat Quinn’s upset victory by Bernard Schoenburg of the Springfield, Il. newspaper:

What do Sheila Simon and creationism have in common? Each might be able to take some credit for helping Democratic Gov. PAT QUINN steer clear of the Republican wave that swept the nation Tuesday. [...]

But Cohen’s withdrawal from the Democratic ticket [my note: Cohen was found out to be a wife beater] led to the interesting show in which regular folks were invited to present their credentials to state Democratic Party officials to be named Quinn’s running mate.

As the daughter of the late U.S. Sen. PAUL SIMON, D-Ill., Sheila Simon certainly brought a familiar name to the table. Still, she came off as a humble, but supportive and knowledgeable sidekick to Quinn, and she traveled to all 102 counties. [...]

But what about creationism? I think it’s just one of many issues that might have helped Quinn win over some teetering independents.

Less than a month before Election Day, Brady appeared before the Chicago Sun-Times editorial board, where some of his conservative social views were discussed. The lead sentence on that newspaper’s story about the meeting mentioned that Brady told the board “he would not stand in the way of a public school board should it want to teach creationism.”

That was reminiscent of late 2005, when Brady started an unsuccessful run for his party’s nomination for governor in 2006.

“I think we should teach the Bible in our schools,” he said then on WMAY-AM. “One of the basic, fundamental voids we have in our school system is bringing God into the system.” Brady told me later he thought local school boards shouldn’t be prohibited from having the “historical significance of the Bible or any religion” taught.

Despite the spin, Brady’s startling talk of the need for God in public schools was part of what formed the impression that Brady was more conservative than many Illinois voters are comfortable with. The horrific economy and state budget this year pushed such issues into the background, but it’s easy to believe Brady’s creationism comments in the Sun-Times story pushed some possible Brady voters into Quinn’s camp.

I also think that some of the harsh anti-choice rhetoric from Brady (no abortion..even in the case of rape) hurt him with some of the “collar county” women who voted for Mark Kirk for the US Senate.

Gov. Perry: Please don’t stop at seceding from social security

Yes, Gov. Perry of Texas is talking about secession again, though he means “allowing Texas to leave social security”:

Freshly reelected Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) just isn’t ready to give up on the secession talk that made him a topic of conversation last year. Taking a national victory lap after his election to an unprecedented third term this week, Perry is out talking up his new plan to break up the union, kind of: It’s time, he says, to let states opt out of Social Security.

Last April, Perry told some Austin tea partiers that though “there’s absolutely no reason to dissolve” the union the state of Texas has been a part of for about 160 years, “if Washington continues to thumb their nose at the American people, you know, who knows what might come out of that.” Texas, he suggested, could lead the charge.

His new suggestion is not to split Texas from the other 49 states, but rather to give it the option to secede from the national pension program that has defined retirement in the country for 75 years.

Please don’t stop at leaving social security. Take your whole rotten state out of the union, and take Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Kentucky, and Oklahoma (at a minimum) with you.

With any luck, our northern conservatives would leave as well in order to enjoy the new theocracy.

Ms. Noonan: you are right, but you are also part of the cause

Peggy Noonan:

Peggy Noonan takes great issue with Sarah Palin comparing herself to Ronald Reagan (h/t Political Wire). Palin has come under fire for her reality show appearances, with Karl Rove saying it doesn’t contribute to the gravitas of someone with serious presidential ambitions.

“With all due candour, appearing on your own reality show on the Discovery Channel, I am not certain how that fits in the American calculus of ‘that helps me see you in the Oval Office’,”

Mr Rove told The Daily Telegraph in an interview.

Palin defended herself from Rove’s words:

“You know, I agree with that,” Palin said, during an interview with “Fox News Sunday,” “that those standards have to be high for someone who would ever want to run for president like, um, wasn’t Ronald Reagan an actor? Wasn’t he in Bedtimes for Bonzo, bozo or something? Ronald Reagan was an actor. [...]

Actually, Sarah Palin was correct, albeit not in the way she intended. Nevertheless Peggy Noonan was not amused:

Excuse me, but this was ignorant even for Mrs. Palin. Reagan people quietly flipped their lids, but I’ll voice their consternation to make a larger point. Ronald Reagan was an artist who willed himself into leadership as president of a major American labor union [...]

The point is not “He was a great man and you are a nincompoop,” though that is true.

Ms. Noonan: it was President Reagan that made it “cool to be ignorant and stupid”. People like Jim Inhofe and Sarah Palin are the natural extensions of that.

Here is a bonus tribute to Republican intellectual standards

As of Now: 52 Democratic Incumbents who ran and lost; most were from very Red CDs

Here is a list of Congressional Districts in which an incumbent Democrat ran and lost AND the seat was filled by a Republican (WV 1: the incumbent Democrat lost in the primary and the primary winner lost in the general election)

I’ve listed the CD’s along with the Presidential winner in 2008, 2004, and 2000. The last number is the number of times that a Republican president won that district (data from here)

So: 26 of these losses came from districts in which 2008, 2004 and 2000 by the Republican presidential candidate.
14 of these had the Republican president win 2 out of the 3 times
6 of these had the Republican president winning once
6 had elected the Democrat every time.

Or, put another way, 40 of the 52 Democratic incumbents who lost represented “red” or “reddish” districts.
This does not include the currently undecided seats nor those in which the sitting Democrat didn’t run for reelection and the seat switched hands.

WV 1 Mc, B, B 3
AL 2 Mc, B, B 3
AZ 1 Mc, B, B 3
AZ 5 Mc, B, B 3
CA 20 O, K, G 0
CO 3 Mc, B, B 3
CO 4 Mc, B, B 3
FL 2 Mc, B, B 3
FL 8 O, B, B 1
FL 22 O, K, G 0
FL 24 Mc, B, B 3
GA 8 Mc, B, B 3
ID 1 Mc, B, B 3
IL 11 O, B, B 2
IL 14 O, B, B 2
IL 17 O, K, G 0
IN 9 Mc, B, B 3
MD 1 Mc, B, B 3
MI 7 O, B, B 1
MI 8 O, B, B 1
MS 1 Mc, B, B 3
MS 4 Mc, B, B 3
MO 4 Mc, B, B 3
MN 8 O, K, G 0
NV 3 O, B, G 2
NH 1 O, B, B 1
NJ 3 O, B, G 2
NM 2 Mc, B, B 3
NY 13 Mc, B, G 2
NY 19 O, B, B 2
NY 20 O, B, B 2
NY 24 O, B, B 2
NC 2 O, B, B 2
ND Mc, B, B 3
OH 1 O, B, B 2
OH 6 Mc, B, B 3
OH 15 O, Tie, B 1-1-1
OH 16 Mc, B, B 3
OH 18 Mc, B, B 3
PA 3 Tie, B, B 2
PA 8 O, K, G 0
PA 10 Mc, B, B 3
PA 11 O, K, G 0
SC 5 Mc, B, B 3
SD Mc, B, B 3
TN 4 Mc, B, B 3
TX 17 Mc, B, B 3
TX 23 O, B, B 2
TX 27 O, B, Tie 1-1-1
VA 2 O, B, B 2
VA 5 Mc, B, B 3
WI 8 O, B, B 2

Rachel Maddow: Echoing falsehoods still dont ring true

Rachel Maddow: Echoing falsehoods still dont ri…, posted with vodpod

At least 34 of the Democratic House losses were from McCain Districts

What do FL-2, FL-24, IN-8, IN-9, MD-1, NM-2, NY-13, NY-29, OH-6, OH-16, OH-18, PA-3, PA-10, VA-5, VA-9, AL-2, AL-5, AR-1, AR-2, AZ-1, AZ-5, GA-8, ID-1, MO-4, MS-1, MS-4, ND, TX-17, WV-1, SD, SC-5, TN-4, TN-6 and TN-8 have in common?

1. In 2008, these districts went for John McCain.
2. As of 2008, these were Democratic seats in the House.
3. In 2010, they were a Republican pick-up.

That is 34 (or over half) of the pick-ups by the Republicans.

So, if someone claims that this election “was a rejection of President Obama”: many of these voters didn’t approve of the President to begin with.

On another note, Nate Silver computed the enthusiasm gap by looking at the difference between the votes that the President got in 2008 versus who the 2010 voters said they voted for; basically the enthusiasm gap was based in swing states where Obama had a good GOTV operation in 2008. In the non-swing states, there was little evidence of such a gap.

Hey America, you voted for these idiots…

Yep, this will really fix the economy and bring jobs.

Christine O’Donnell Bashes GOP ‘Cannibalism’ For Killing Her Campaign (VIDEO)

Christine O’Donnell’s defeat in Delaware’s election for U.S. Senate on Tuesday night didn’t stop her from making the rounds on the morning talkshow circuit the following day to discuss her loss to Democrat Chris Coons. During an appearance on CNN’s “American Morning,” O’Donnell described the outcome of the race as a “symptom of Republican cannibalism.”

Christine O’Donnell Bashes GOP ‘Cannibalism’ Fo…, posted with vodpod