Farwell to October 2010

Walking: easy 3.5 mile hike at Forrest Park Nature center. I drug my buddy Lynn Dempsey along.

Science

Surf here for the article; it shows that there are some woos who work at science agencies. (groan)

Primate origins: there is some evidence that primates originated in Asia.

Science and the woo is there really evidence for psychic powers? My guess: probably not, but Jerry Coyne gives this bit during his discussion:

1. They’re real: we have previously unsuspected abilities to detect the future.

2. They’re fraudulent: Bem rigged the experiment or made up the data. I’m assuming this isn’t the case.

3. They’re wrong because of some flaw in the experiment (or in the computer programs) that made these results artifactual.

4. The results are statistical outliers that got published simply because they represent one of those cases in which we reject the null hypothesis (i.e., the hypothesis that we have no ability to predict the future), even though it’s true. This is called a “type one error” in statistics. When experimental results give such an error of 5% or less (i.e., exceed the “significance threshold”), scientists do reject the null hypothesis and claim that something else is going on (in this case, that there’s precognition). But with a threshhold of 5%, you’ll make a mistake one time in twenty. (That’s the basis of the old science joke, “95% of your experiments fail, and you publish the other 5% in Nature.”)

Local Politics The saying is “Politics ain’t beanbag” and you see that even in local races. I live in IL-92. Check out the 2008 commercial:

The “degree” thing: Gordon’s campaign literature said that she had “attended” the University of Illinois, which is true. But a commercial made for her, which she did not fact check, said that she had earned a degree. It turns out that AFTER the commercial came out, she indeed earned her degree by taking the one remaining class.

The “shoplifting” conviction: that is true; she never hid it and pointed out that people can turn themselves around.
Now Gordon is being challenged by Jim Montelongo. I haven’t been able to find a youtube video of one of the ads that is airing but basically he says in this ad that he “is against waste” (really?) and that he’ll cut the salary of the legislators (already paltry….). Wow…what a great idea; make the state legislature such that only the better off can serve! You can see more of his banality here:

What is with this “I am a businessman” stuff anyway? Often doing right by those who need it the most is NOT cost effective; not everything should be “run like a business”.

Other stuff
Gawker ran a story on Christine O’Donnell: basically it was an account of a young man that she picked up, went on a date with and ended up in bed with; she was drunk and naked (but didn’t have actual sex, By Jove! ). Of course, some feminist groups were furious; their cries of “sexism” roughly matches the hum of the air conditioner.

Gawker defended their decision and I agree with them: O’Donnell is running, in part, on a fundamentalist Christian view of human sexuality when her own practice is, well, quite normal.

Take back fear/restore Sanity
Here and here are collections of the funniest signs.

Economics
Paul Krugman talks about stagflation and has this to say, in general:

Everything that has happened these past two years has fit that basic model; meanwhile, those who failed to accept the implications of the liquidity trap have been wrong over and over again.

But here’s the thing: I see no signs of a rethink among most players. The slide toward deflation despite huge increases in the monetary base hasn’t shaken either the paleomonetarists who still predict hyperinflation or the it’s-all-the-Fed’s-fault crowd. The failure of interest rates to soar hasn’t shaken the deficit hawks. Instead, the usual suspects have taken the failure of an inadequate stimulus to produce a solid improvement in employment — a failure I, among others, predicted! — as proof that they were right.

It’s disheartening, to say the least. You really have to wonder if economics has become completely unmoored from evidence, whether anything can ever convince anyone that they were wrong.

I say this: one of the marks of a conservative is to be completely unmoved by actual evidence; they judge the worthiness of their policies by how closely they conform to their existing narrative.

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