Farwell to October 2010

Walking: easy 3.5 mile hike at Forrest Park Nature center. I drug my buddy Lynn Dempsey along.

Science

Surf here for the article; it shows that there are some woos who work at science agencies. (groan)

Primate origins: there is some evidence that primates originated in Asia.

Science and the woo is there really evidence for psychic powers? My guess: probably not, but Jerry Coyne gives this bit during his discussion:

1. They’re real: we have previously unsuspected abilities to detect the future.

2. They’re fraudulent: Bem rigged the experiment or made up the data. I’m assuming this isn’t the case.

3. They’re wrong because of some flaw in the experiment (or in the computer programs) that made these results artifactual.

4. The results are statistical outliers that got published simply because they represent one of those cases in which we reject the null hypothesis (i.e., the hypothesis that we have no ability to predict the future), even though it’s true. This is called a “type one error” in statistics. When experimental results give such an error of 5% or less (i.e., exceed the “significance threshold”), scientists do reject the null hypothesis and claim that something else is going on (in this case, that there’s precognition). But with a threshhold of 5%, you’ll make a mistake one time in twenty. (That’s the basis of the old science joke, “95% of your experiments fail, and you publish the other 5% in Nature.”)

Local Politics The saying is “Politics ain’t beanbag” and you see that even in local races. I live in IL-92. Check out the 2008 commercial:

The “degree” thing: Gordon’s campaign literature said that she had “attended” the University of Illinois, which is true. But a commercial made for her, which she did not fact check, said that she had earned a degree. It turns out that AFTER the commercial came out, she indeed earned her degree by taking the one remaining class.

The “shoplifting” conviction: that is true; she never hid it and pointed out that people can turn themselves around.
Now Gordon is being challenged by Jim Montelongo. I haven’t been able to find a youtube video of one of the ads that is airing but basically he says in this ad that he “is against waste” (really?) and that he’ll cut the salary of the legislators (already paltry….). Wow…what a great idea; make the state legislature such that only the better off can serve! You can see more of his banality here:

What is with this “I am a businessman” stuff anyway? Often doing right by those who need it the most is NOT cost effective; not everything should be “run like a business”.

Other stuff
Gawker ran a story on Christine O’Donnell: basically it was an account of a young man that she picked up, went on a date with and ended up in bed with; she was drunk and naked (but didn’t have actual sex, By Jove! ). Of course, some feminist groups were furious; their cries of “sexism” roughly matches the hum of the air conditioner.

Gawker defended their decision and I agree with them: O’Donnell is running, in part, on a fundamentalist Christian view of human sexuality when her own practice is, well, quite normal.

Take back fear/restore Sanity
Here and here are collections of the funniest signs.

Economics
Paul Krugman talks about stagflation and has this to say, in general:

Everything that has happened these past two years has fit that basic model; meanwhile, those who failed to accept the implications of the liquidity trap have been wrong over and over again.

But here’s the thing: I see no signs of a rethink among most players. The slide toward deflation despite huge increases in the monetary base hasn’t shaken either the paleomonetarists who still predict hyperinflation or the it’s-all-the-Fed’s-fault crowd. The failure of interest rates to soar hasn’t shaken the deficit hawks. Instead, the usual suspects have taken the failure of an inadequate stimulus to produce a solid improvement in employment — a failure I, among others, predicted! — as proof that they were right.

It’s disheartening, to say the least. You really have to wonder if economics has become completely unmoored from evidence, whether anything can ever convince anyone that they were wrong.

I say this: one of the marks of a conservative is to be completely unmoved by actual evidence; they judge the worthiness of their policies by how closely they conform to their existing narrative.

Mc-Not-Again 30 mile walk

Background: I had meniscus surgery on July 9; I didn’t have much time to build up for this race as the knee would get “hot” if I walked too much. But I did build up to “back to back” 10 mile walks on trails (Farmdale race in 2:34, McNaughton on my own) and a half marathon (Quad Cities in 2:39)

I did this race last year; though I worked through knee pain it hampered my training. But I did have a 100 miler, marathon and 24 hour race in the spring, to go with a 12 hour trail race and a marathon in the fall.

The Day: perfect; 40 at the start; rose to 60; some light wind; lots of sun. The course: I’ve never seen it better.

Race management: Michael Siltman (the RD) does an excellent job with the race; the trail is well marked and the aid station volunteers were enthusiastic and helpful. Kudos to all the volunteers (including the Zimmerman brothers who marked the course).

My race: 9:52 finish, which is almost an hour slower than last year’s 8:55 on a much, much muddier day. Loops (10 mile): 2:48, 3:06, 3:57; during the last loop I sat down three times.

Details: many of the usual suspects were there; of course most of them are in shape and I wasn’t. I knew that. So in my first loop, I stayed back and tried hard to keep my ego out of it. Splits: 42 at the totem pole, 1:22 at the bridge near 5 miles, 2:15 at the “8+” mile bridge. I managed to catch up to some people who were a bit confused by the course; the course was very well marked at turns but having a ribbon during “easy to follow” stretches can be comforting.

But mostly I let people get away from me. I didn’t feel great at the start but better when I got going.

When I started my second loop I felt just a bit tired and I got passed by 7 30 mile finishers; the leader looked so good. His running form was just so graceful.

But mostly I was by myself and felt tired but ok; I had to talk to myself to keep going.

I was very happy with the 3:06 time though I was feeling fatigue. I was 1:30 on the button at the Bridge; 1:00 at the first creek crossing and 1:10 at the bottom of golf hill.

(this is the bottom of golf hill during another fall day)

I started out loop three and was going to go easily the whole way; my lack of training ensured weak, fatigued muscles. But some guys (runners) who had been ahead of me lingered at the 20 mile aid station and were behind me; I ended up killing myself to try to stay ahead of them (they were now walking).

Bad mistake…that drained my energy though I was 49 minutes at the totem pole. But I stayed ahead of them until golf hill; that climb broke me. I had to stop during three of those brutal climbs prior to the bridge which I reached at 1:49; it took 11+ minutes to do the next .4 miles which got me to the aid station, where I rested for another few minutes. I teased Donna Creditor who will be doing a 100 miler next week; I reminded her that she would be in much more pain than I was in.

At 2:05 I left the aid station and told them that I anticipated 2 more hours; it turns out that I “only” needed 1:52.

I can’t tell you how bad that stretch from mile 4 to mile 5.5 was. I didn’t have huge nausea; I was just bone tired and my muscles were fatigued. I was whipped.

I had taken Succeed tablets, antacids, tea and Heed; it was difficult for me to ingest stuff.

But when I slowed down and walked at “survival” pace I felt better; believe it or not the final 4.5 miles weren’t that bad and the last 3 were pleasant again…but these were slow-slow-slow. I was 3:15 at the “just past 8 mile” bridge.

How badly did I slow? That group of guys who passed me at mile 4 were one mile ahead of me when I got to mile 6.

I counted the hills down; the toughest are those from golf to the last hill after 5.4 aid station and the final foundation hill at mile 9+.

I was happy to see the finish line and enjoyed jawing with Mike and Donna at the finish; evidently one person was still out on the course.

Funny remarks: at the last 5.4 aid station (25.4 miles) I lamented my decision to try to stay ahead of the three guys. Donna reminded me that they were 30 years younger than I.

When I told Barbara (my wife): I wanted to finish that race “real bad” she said “and you did…finish it badly”.

Shoulder and knee: the back of the knee hurt slightly and I had a hard time getting it straight toward the end (not in walking, just in general). But aside from my usual two Naproxen for my shoulder early in the morning, I took no pain killer.