College Football: my predictions for the rest of the season

Well do this in two parts: the first part I’ll muse about my favorite teams (and my buddy’s favorite team); in the second half I’ll look at the remaining undefeated teams.

My favorite teams

Navy

Sat, Oct 30 Duke 3:30 pm –
Sat, Nov 6 at East Carolina 3:30 pm –
Sat, Nov 13 Central Michigan 3:30 pm –
Sat, Nov 20 Arkansas State 3:30 pm –
Sat, Dec 11 Army 2:30 pm –

What I see: the biggest tests should be East Carolina and Army, though Duke usually plays Navy hard. I see perhaps one more loss along the way (either East Carolina or an upset) leading to a 9-3 finish.

Notre Dame

Sat, Oct 30 Tulsa 2:30 pm –
Sat, Nov 13 (9) Utah 2:30 pm –
Sat, Nov 20 Army 7:00 pm –
Sat, Nov 27 at USC 8:00 pm

What I see: Army and Tulsa should be winnable games. But that is a SHOULD with this team. USC: it depends on how seriously the Trojans take the game. Utah: on paper this looks like a potentially ugly loss, BUT Utah plays TCU the week before and Air Force the week prior to that. They might go 2-2 the rest of the way to finish 6-6. But Utah is a potential upset.

Illinois

Sat, Oct 30 Purdue 12:00 pm –
Sat, Nov 6 at Michigan TBA –
Sat, Nov 13 Minnesota TBA –
Sat, Nov 20 at Northwestern 3:30 pm –
Fri, Dec 3 at Fresno State 10:15 pm –

What I see: every game is winnable. But Illinois is remarkably inconsistent; Michigan is good enough to hold serve at home and Northwestern ALWAYS plays Illinois hard (this year, in Wrigly Field). Fresno State is 5-2 right now and might see this as their bowl game. And yes, Illinois is plenty capable of playing down to their opposition. I see them going 3-2 the rest of the way and finishing 7-5.

Texas
Sat, Oct 30 Baylor 7:00 pm –
Sat, Nov 6 at Kansas State TBA –
Sat, Nov 13 (17) Oklahoma State TBA –
Sat, Nov 20 Florida Atlantic TBA –
Thu, Nov 25 Texas A&M 8:00 pm –

Texas is hard to read; they seem to play better on the road, away from their demanding fans. Baylor, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M are capable teams. Kansas State…beat UCLA. I see 2-3 more losses in a rough year though they are capable of running the table and winning the rest of their games. I’ll go with Them finishing 3-2 to go 7-5, though in this case, there is a very wide confidence interval.

Note: I am NOT an Ohio State fan but my lunch buddy is so:

Ohio State

Sat, Oct 30 at Minnesota 8:00 pm –
Sat, Nov 13 Penn State TBA –
Sat, Nov 20 at (13) Iowa TBA –
Sat, Nov 27 Michigan TBA –

The roughest opponent is Iowa, who has to play Michigan state on October 30. Frankly, I see the Buckeyes running the table and finishing 11-1 and going to a BCS bowl…
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The Currently Undefeated Teams

Oregon

Sat, Oct 30 at USC 8:00 pm –
Sat, Nov 6 Washington TBA –
Sat, Nov 13 at California TBA –
Fri, Nov 26 (15) Arizona 7:00 pm –
Sat, Dec 4 at Oregon State TBA –

They have 3 high quality teams on their schedule; USC might be looking for some payback. Arizona is no push over and the Oregon State game is a rivalry game against a quality opponent. But the Quack Attack is hitting on all cylinders. Still that last game is a landmine and the Beavers played TCU and Boise State tough. But the Beavers might not have much left in the tank after battling Arizona State, Stanford and USC over the next few weeks. I say the Ducks run the table to finish undefeated.

Michigan State

Sat, Oct 30 at (13) Iowa 3:30 pm –
Sat, Nov 6 Minnesota TBA –
Sat, Nov 20 Purdue TBA –
Sat, Nov 27 at Penn State TBA –

On paper, only the Hawkeyes appear to pose much of a challenge. But the Spartans didn’t exactly dominate mediocre Notre Dame and Northwestern teams. I see this catching up to them; I predict a loss to Iowa and an upset in their last two games. Still, 10-2 isn’t shabby.

TCU
Sat, Oct 30 at UNLV 11:00 pm * Audio
Sat, Nov 6 at (9) Utah 3:30 pm * Audio
Sat, Nov 13 San Diego State 4:00 pm * Audio
Sat, Nov 27 at New Mexico 4:00 pm * Audio

There are two challenges; the biggest one will come from Utah. But SDS is 5-2 with a very narrow loss to Missouri (and a 3 point loss to BYU) marring the record; that is a potential “upset” special. Losing to Utah wouldn’t be an upset. I see the Frogs dropping one game to finish 11-1.

Utah
Sat, Oct 30 at Air Force 7:30 pm –
Sat, Nov 6 (4) TCU 3:30 pm –
Sat, Nov 13 at Notre Dame 2:30 pm –
Sat, Nov 20 at San Diego State 10:00 pm –
Sat, Nov 27 Brigham Young 3:30 pm –

Utah closes with 3 good teams and a traditional rival (BYU), and a team looking for redemption (ND). The Utes are good, but can’t afford an off day. I see them losing once to finish 11-1.

Auburn
Sat, Oct 30 at Mississippi 6:00 pm –
Sat, Nov 6 Chattanooga TBA –
Sat, Nov 13 Georgia TBA –
Fri, Nov 26 at (7) Alabama 2:30 pm –
A resurgent Georgia team and Alabama form the biggest obstacles. I see them losing once to go 11-1.

Missouri
Sat, Oct 30 at (14) Nebraska 3:30 pm –
Sat, Nov 6 at Texas Tech TBA –
Sat, Nov 13 Kansas State TBA –
Sat, Nov 20 at Iowa State TBA –
Sat, Nov 27 at Kansas 12:30 pm
Nebraska is their biggest threat; can the Tigers get up for two games in a row? Texas Tech won’t roll over either. I see at least one loss; perhaps 2. I’ll call it 10-2 (two losses) the rest of the way.

Boisie State
Tue, Oct 26 Louisiana Tech 8:00 pm –
Sat, Nov 6 Hawaii 2:00 pm –
Fri, Nov 12 at Idaho 9:00 pm –
Fri, Nov 19 Fresno State 9:30 pm –
Fri, Nov 26 at Nevada 10:15 pm –
Sat, Dec 4 Utah State 3:00 pm –

The closing is tougher than it might appear; Nevada and Fresno State are decent teams and Utah State gave Oklahoma all it could handle. Hawaii has ambushed teams in the past. Nevertheless, the Broncos would well run the table and that is what I see.

So, my BCS prediction: Oregon and Boise State will finish undefeated. But Alabama (or Auburn) might be 12-1 and therefore clamor for a spot in the BCS championship.

The game I’d like to see would be Alabama vs. Oregon; could that Alabama defense shut down the Quack Attack?

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