19 January 2010: last day of freedom

Workout notes AM: yoga with Ms. Vickie. It was my first class in months. I just wasn’t doing yoga on my own. The irony is that if I take a yoga class, I end up doing mini-sessions on my own. But if I don’t, I end up not doing those mini-sessions.

I can run, walk, lift, swim and hike on my own. But to do yoga, I need an anchor of some sort. I am not sure as to why.

PM: 4000 yard swim over lunch; 500 warm up, 10 x 100 fist (played with the interval; it took me 18 minutes to do all of them), 3 x (5 x (25 drill, 75 free)): front, sfs, 3g. I was slow on these. Then 500 of fly practice (400 kicks with fins, 4 x 25 full stroke with no fins), 500 various cool down (paddles, side, etc.)
This wasn’t my best swim, but given Sunday’s success I’ll take it.

Posts
Mathematics Recursivity poses an excellent problem in probability:

Given a deck of 52 cards shuffled randomly — a deal — what is the probability that, somewhere in the deck, there is an Ace adjacent to a King?

The answer is surprising. Yes, it is harder than it looks.

Politics
You know that things look bad when a Democrat can’t win in Massachusetts, but that appears to be happening. Liberals are already making excuses and are coming up with “plan B” to pass health care reform (e. g. make the House swallow the Senate bill whole).

Point/Counter Point
David Brooks wrote an interesting column about Haiti:

On Oct. 17, 1989, a major earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0 struck the Bay Area in Northern California. Sixty-three people were killed. This week, a major earthquake, also measuring a magnitude of 7.0, struck near Port-au-Prince, Haiti. The Red Cross estimates that between 45,000 and 50,000 people have died.

Mr. Brooks goes on to question: “why was Haiti so poor to begin with” and wonders if well-intentioned efforts to help Haiti (BEFORE the earthquake hit) ended up hindering their progress. Note: it is beyond dispute that a richer nation wouldn’t have suffered so terribly (e. g. there would be better buildings to resist the quake, better roads between affected areas, etc.).

Of course, someone has to overreact to what Mr. Brooks said. Mr. Brooks never said to NOT give money to help out with disaster recovery. The question is: ok, after the disaster is over, what next?

This is a bit like “a smoker gets lung cancer”: sure, we should treat the afflicted smoker while realizing that it would probably be worth our while to ensure that fewer people smoke.

18 January 2010 (noonish)

Workout notes weights (which felt easier), followed by 1.5 miles on the treadmill at 9:50: incline went 0 for 2 minutes, 1 for 3, then 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 (two minutes each). Then 1.5 on the AMT, then 3 on the stairmaster.

I did enough to get sweaty.

Note: the run was absolutely painless.

No, that doesn’t mean I get to run 10 miles tomorrow; another 1.5 on Wednesday is more like it.

Academia: The ‘flakes are back on campus and classes start Wednesday. Right now I am fighting the temptation to get my proofed paper out today; instead I’ll be disciplined and read it ONE MORE TIME and get it out a week from tomorrow. Actually, make that two papers; one I revised, proofed, etc.

Politics Yes, things look great for the Republicans in the Massachusetts special election for the seat formerly held by Ted Kennedy. But the election isn’t until tomorrow and the Republicans are already celebrating! I have to disagree with Mr. Morris though: unless the House can just swallow the Senate bill whole (which I doubt), this election probably means the end of HCR this time around. Basically, the liberals don’t like all of the concessions and the conservatives don’t want any bill at all.

Of course, an election win doesn’t mean “immediate seating”.

And, of course, the Democrat might still win (though it is unlikely)

Other stuff

At least some like minded people (atheists who lean liberal on political matters) are getting fed up with all of this extra “security” which really doesn’t do much that is useful.

Mano Singham:

On my return to the US, I discovered that the usual hysteria over the underwear bomber had indeed occurred, with people demanding even more security measures such as full body scanners, profiling, and the like.

I wonder when people are going to say that they have had enough. I myself have long ago reconciled myself to the fact that there will always be people crazy enough to try and find ways to kill others and that there is no way to be 100% secure even if we give up all our rights and liberties and freedoms and privacy. Systems and people are fallible and there will always be some cracks in the security system that can be exploited. So I am willing to take the risk of loss of life in a terrorist attack in return for living a life that is free from highly intrusive government security. This is why I think I was so unperturbed by the fight on the earlier flight. After all, the risk from dying in a terrorist attack is surely less than the risk of dying from other causes that I face every day such as car crashes or common criminals or building collapses. I don’t obsess over those risks so why should I obsess over dying in a plane crash?

Marco Randazza:

I’ve been saying so for years. But, it seems that finally the Wall Street Journal thinks so too.

It’s a remarkable fact that a nation founded, fought for, built by, and transformed through the extraordinary courage of figures such as George Washington, Susan B. Anthony and Martin Luther King Jr. now often seems reduced to a pitiful whimpering giant by a handful of mostly incompetent criminals, whose main weapons consist of scary-sounding Web sites and shoe- and underwear-concealed bombs that fail to detonate.

Look, I am for reasonable precautions: after all, I look both ways when I cross the street, ok? But frankly, I am more at risk from getting run over by a snowflake who is texting while driving than I am to die by the result of a terrorism related plane crash. (Nate Silver has a nice post on the odds)

Am I That Bad? (18 January 2010)

My stepson sent me this photo:

Am I that bad?

Watching Chargers-Jets, Hoping for a close game!

Well, I can say right now that my picks have been a bust. I am 0-3 against the spread (after going 3-1 last week) and 2-1 straight up. One key mistake: I failed to take into account that the Saints and the Vikings tended to play better at home than on the road this year.

The first Cardinal play was a 70 yard touchdown. It stayed close until the Saints opened it to 28-14 on a flea-flicker. Though the Cardinals had 359 total yards to the Saints 419, the Saints also scored on a big Reggie Bush punt return.

Overall the 45-14 score reflected the one-sidedness of the game.

This was probably the closest of the first 3 games; basically the Colts scored two touchdowns in the last 2 minutes of the first half; the last one coming on a play that started with 8 seconds to go; Manning signaled to the sideline that they had time for one more play prior to a field goal attempt.

The Ravens killed themselves on penalties and mistakes; they turned it over 4 times including a fumble on a promising interception return. This reminded me a bit of their game against Pittsburgh. Total yards were actually close.

Frankly, I was fooled by looking at the results of the last few games; basically Dallas had one strong road performance (17-0 against the Redskins) and Minnesota had a few poor road performances. The Vikings are different at home.

The Dallas defense played reasonably well; the offense turned it over 3 times and gave the Vikings a short field on two different occasions on failed 4′th downs; they also missed field goals of 48 and 49 yards.

The story was the Vikings defense, which limited Dallas to 248 total yards.
The last score of the 34-3 rout was set up when the Cowboys, down 27-3 with 5:26 left, went for it on 4′th and 3 at their own 37. The Vikings got the ball, and threw a pass on 4′th down and 1:55 to go.

Overall, the Vikings just beat the Cowboys up physically.

Now next week: yes, the Vikings have struggled on the road even when the games were meaningful (Carolina, Chicago). But was this due to being outdoors, or due to being on the road? My guess it is the former, in which case their defense would give them a shot against the Saints.

The Chargers-Jets are 7-0 at the half; at least the game is competitive.

Update: the Jets kicked a field goal off a drive, then exploited an interception to take a 10-7 lead in the 4′th quarter.

Now they got the ball back on a defensive stop and broke a long run and lead 17-7. But the Chargers have a good quarterback and 7:15 to go.

Note: the Jets made a very interesting interception to kill a drive; the ball bounced off the receiver’s hands, rolled up his body and was snatched by the defender.

Update Chargers miss a 40 yard field goal. They get the ball back and go 66 yards for a touchdown, but didn’t get the onside kick. So now the Chargers have one time out and the two minute warning. A first down ices the game for the Jets.

They got the first down; Jets win 17-14. I won against the spread but lost straight up.

My picks: 2-2 head to head, 1-3 against the spread. So my play-off record: 5-3 straight up, 4-4 against the spread. I won’t win money that way.

(photos: yahoo)

17 January 2010 (II)

I’ll comment on the NFL games later. Let’s just say that my picks are doing poorly and that I really expected each of these games to be better than this. I have picked the winner in 2 of the previous 3 games, but went 0-3 against the spread.

Please: let the Chargers-Jets game be close!!!!

Other stuff Massachusetts special Senate election (to replace Senator Kennedy)
I am a Democrat and am very distressed by the direction this election is taking. Nate Silver looks back at similar elections and finds out that in traditionally partisan states, if the polls are close, the candidate from the dominant party tends to do better than the polling suggests (e. g., Republican candidates in red states do better than the polling suggests and Democrats do better in the blue states than the polling suggests.

Ok, I am reaching. Frankly, I think that we’ll probably lose this seat. Of course, some are suggesting that our losing this seat is the direct result of our party caving in to conservative demands (that is, we are losing because we aren’t liberal enough). In Massachusetts, that might be true given the fact that President Obama remains popular there, but this sort of smacks of the “the Republicans lost in 2006 and 2008 because they weren’t conservative enough”.

I simply don’t know enough about local politics to reach an informed conclusion.

I will do my part and post this clip of Mr. Brown:

Watch him here: it is clear that this guy is no moderate; he is a Limbaugh type Republican.

Haiti and Superstition
Christopher Hitchens: I love the headline:

It’s idiotic to blame anything other than geology for the Haitian earthquake.
By Christopher Hitchens
[...]
Robertson is stupidly trying to channel an event that may have occurred on the night of Aug. 14, 1791, when a large voodoo ceremony is said to have been held by the rebellious slaves of Haiti. After an animal sacrifice (of a black pig) to the maternal spirit of Ezili Danto, all present at Bois Caiman swore to slay their white masters. This is sometimes taken as the signal for the revolt that, under the charismatic leadership of Toussaint L’Ouverture, drove French troops and slaveholders from Haiti and established the world’s first black republic. (The essential book here is The Black Jacobins, by Trinidadian author C.L.R. James.) Americans have good reason to be thankful for that outcome, because it was the vanquishing of Napoleon that enabled celebrated agnostic Thomas Jefferson to negotiate the Louisiana Purchase and double the size of the United States.

This would have been quite a useful pact with the devil, but voodoo or santería and their related religious fusions are not Satanistic. They are, rather, a localized and Africanized form of Catholic superstition, based on much the same calendar and communion of saints that was being celebrated in Lisbon on that day in 1755. And if any single thing explains the abject misery of Haiti in the years between independence and today, it is the prevalence of religious cultism in its various aspects. Voodoo keeps people afraid and makes them cowed into apathy by the nearness of the spirit world. It was exploited by the horrible Tonton Macoute regime of “Papa Doc” Duvalier and his gruesome son, who for decades kept the country as their own rack-rented fief. But please do not forget that Mother Teresa came to Port-au-Prince in 1981 to receive the Haitian Légion d’honneur from “Baby Doc,” as well as to accept stolen money from him, and that the Vatican protected the foul system for as long as it was able. In September 1992, exiled President Jean-Bertrand Aristide denounced the Vatican from the podium of the United Nations, correctly pointing out that it maintained the only embassy that still recognized the continuing post-Duvalier dictatorship. Unfortunately, Aristide’s own brand of religious populism was a failure. Still, one cannot believe that the Almighty has recently slaughtered so many Haitians because of the unbelievable squalidness of their competing priesthoods. [...]

Read the whole post.

Humor
I suppose this is called “feeling comfortable with your body”?

see more Epic Fails

The rear view would be even more interesting.

This other FAIL is funny too:

see more Epic Fails

17 January 2010 (am)

Convergent evolution: Roughly speaking, convergent evolution occurs when two different species evolve to fill a “niche” (e. g., horses and zebras, or say, Florida and Chinese Alligators, or regular wolves and marsupial wolves. So we get species that act and similar ways and look similar. However, scientist have discovered two different species of frogs which have evolved identical toxins (to make predators sick) via different genes. Via Jerry Coyne’s blog: (Matthew Cobb’s post) Identical toxins were evolved from two different genes which diverged hundreds of millions of years ago:

However, most examples of convergent adaptation remain at the level of form or function, rather than the genes involved. It’s possible that the same genes are involved in shaping a dolphin and an icthyosaur, but it’s unlikely we’ll ever know. An exception is the recent discovery of convergent mutations in species of sand lizards with white skins, all of which affect the melacortonin-1 receptor. But in a way, that isn’t too surprising – the melacortonin-1 receptor controls skin colour in these animals, and only a restricted number of molecular changes would give rise to an advantageous white form.

Even more striking is the announcement, shortly to appear in the pages of Current Biology, of identical skin toxins produced in two lineages of frogs, but on the basis of two different genes that diverged during the Cambrian, between 488 and 557 MY ago!

Both lineages of frogs – the Australian Litoria species and the Pipidae (which includes the model species Xenopus laevis) – secrete caerulein, a powerful toxin that induces vomiting, diarrhea and pancreatitis, amongst other things. Strikingly, the two sets of amphibians have very different ecologies and are separated by massive distances – the Australian/Papuan Litoria frogs tend to be terrestrial, whereas Xenopus and its African relatives are strictly aquatic. This means that their toxins are used to ward off very different predators, although the assumption is that in all cases the predators are vertebrates, which are all vulnerable to these toxins.

A Member of the Pipidae Species Frogs

A A Member of the Litoria Species Frogs

Pat Robertson’s Remark. I had talked about the background for it here. The “poe” blog The Good Kentuckian points out that Robertson’s remarks are entirely consistent with “Biblical Christianity”.

Celeste Hale points this out too, and provides supporting evidence.

In short, too many people who call themselves “Bible Believing Christians” cherry pick the good stuff and either ignore or rationalize away the bad stuff.

I hasten to point out that it is a good idea to “take the good” from things (e. .g, use good passages from the Jewish Bible, New Testament, Koran, Hindu scriptures, etc) to help yourself live a better life. Hey, wisdom is wisdom where ever you find it. But please don’t claim to be a follower of that religion. If you wish to follow a modified religion, fine, but please admit that is what you are doing.

Update: The Devil writes back to Mr. Roberston. Here is part of it:

[...] Sure, in the afterlife, but when I strike bargains with people, they first get something here on earth — glamour, beauty, talent, wealth, fame, glory, a golden fiddle. Those Haitians have nothing, and I mean nothing. And that was before the earthquake. Haven’t you seen “Crossroads”? Or “Damn Yankees”?

If I had a thing going with Haiti, there’d be lots of banks, skyscrapers, SUVs, exclusive night clubs, Botox — that kind of thing. An 80 percent poverty rate is so not my style. Nothing against it — I’m just saying: Not how I roll. [...]

PB for the 5K Swim: 17 January 2010

I don’t understand the human body or human performance. I had set the alarm for 5 am so I could eat a light breakfast and make the 7 am swim at the Riverplex. But when the alarm went off, I wanted to roll over and go back to sleep….but my wife wanted to turn the radio on.

So I grumbled, got out of bed and did what I had planned to do. Ironically, I still felt full from my “friend” rice dinner the night before (inside joke with a facebook friend) and didn’t feel that good until I actually started to swim. I felt slightly bloated and not “empty”.
I told myself: “swim steadily until you get tired of it, then throw in enough intervals to get 5K”

I was alone during the first 1000 and then a young woman entered the next lane; though she is fitter than I am she swims as if she hates the water and wants to beat it up; hence I lapped her every 9 laps or so. When I saw that I was going to average under 17 minutes per 1000 for the next 3000 yards or so, I knew that I’d keep going until I got 5K. (5500 yards)

My first 500 was my slowest (4:31) and I started to warm up; my 1000 yard splits were as follows:
17:40, 16:56, 16:53, 17:00, 17:18 (got content and lazy), 8:40 for the final 500.
Time: 1:34:29, which is a 2:05 PB.

Note: my first 4250 yard (Ironman distance) split was 1:12:49 and my 1000 to 5250 split was 1:12:26, which is just 14 seconds slower than my PB for this (set in April, 1999, back when I ran a 1:34 half marathon and a 20:40 5K)

I then added some backstroke (with fins) and sidestroke to stretch out; I ended up with 6000 yards total.

What I don’t understand:

1. Why does one sometimes perform well when one isn’t feeling their best?

2. Why is my swimming much better than my running? Last year, I couldn’t break 24 minutes for the 5K when I used to run under 20 minutes 10-11 years ago, yet this was my best 5K swim ever? Even if we compare the longer distance runs, in 1999 my half marathon was 1:34; I can’t even keep that pace up for 2 miles now-a-days.
Others have told me that they have slowed down less in distance swimming than in distance running.

Massachusetts 2010 Special Senate Election: Bad News

From Intrade:

Maybe the Democratic political leadership will understand that they can’t take Democrats for granted.

Of course, the Republicans will say that this is proof that liberal policy is not popular and that the voters really want conservative policy.

We’ll see.

But it sure looks as if HCR is circling the drain.

16 January 2009 (I)

Workout notes I did the Steve Foster Memorial Run/Walk (second one); Steve was a friend who died from pancreatic cancer in April of 2008. Ironically, when I found out that he had this cancer, it was December 2006 and I was fighting the same type of injury that is dogging me right now.

I chose a 4 mile walk from the Riverplex to upper Glen Oak Park via the bikepath; much of the bike path was iced up due to melting and refreezing; it had been plowed at one time. The injury felt fine during the walk but ached just a bit afterward.

Then I lifted weights (dumbbell routine, lat pulls, pull-ups, yoga leg lifts) and then did 60 minutes on the elliptical trainer (1:00:20 actually) and got 7 miles.

What lifted my spirits a bit: well, one of the tri-babes had changed from her form fitting jeans into tight bike shorts; she was bent forward and over a bit while looking at the display. Then while on the elliptical, a young woman in very tight spandex got right in front of me on the treadmill; that was good luck as most of the Riverplex members are, well, old and fat (like me ).

Speaking of spandex Someone noticed that Argentinian women volleyball players wear very brief attire. This is a sample of the photos that they posted.

There are many more there.

A bit more seriousness:

Haiti: Obviously we want to help, but helping isn’t as simple as driving a truck with supplies into a region:

But none of their own reporting has slowed down the cry of “Where is the help?”

Colin Powell and the Commanding General on the ground have all tried, using small words, to explain that Haiti is a violent society and, any movement of supplies into the city before security apparatus is in place could result in riots and blood shed. It could put the aid workers at risk, and result in even more death and destruction. It could place American military troops at risk of setting off a conflagration.

But that is not the story.

Instead, we are treated not as mature adults, not as world citizens eager to help, but as children, needing to be frightened and brought to our knees with stories of the failure to provide the immediate gratification we have been trained to expect.

15 January 2010

Workout notes 1.5 mile run on the treadmill (just under 15 minutes): 2 minutes at 0, 3 at 1, then I increased the elevation by 1 every 2 minutes; I ended up at 6. Then 35 minutes on the elliptical trainer; played with the incline for the first 23 minutes (1, 10, 15), then increased the resistance and lowered the incline.

Then 3100 yards of swimming: 10 x 100 on the 2 (form), 500 drill/swim (fins), 10 x 50 on 1 (fist), 5 x 200: (25 fly, 25 free, 25 back, 25 free, 25 breast, 25 free, 50 free) on the 4:15, 100 cool down.

The running is FINALLY starting to feel better.

Posts: Here is some perspective on Pat Roberston’s remark:

The French Revolution had been going on for two years when slave leaders gathered in the Caiman woods outside of what’s today Cap Haitien. The fighting between and within the white elite and the free mulatto population presented an excellent opportunity for general revolt. Most of the slaves present worked as overseers or coachmen for their respective masters, giving them freedom of movement and the right to carry swords. Dutty Boukman, a slave originally from Jamaica, and a priestess of disputed identity led a Voudou ceremony where they allegedly charged the gathered slaves “to throw away the image of the god of the whites who thirsts for our tears and listen to the voice of liberty that speaks in the hearts of all of us.” They then made an oath of secrecy and revenge, sealing it by drinking the blood of a sacrificed pig, a ceremony possibly West African in origin. This event bears a similar relationship to the Haitian Revolution as the Boston Tea Party does to the American Revolution—a critical event that helped galvanize the founding generation and forms a centerpoint for revolutionary legend today.

One of the first things that comes to mind in any discussion of Haiti, Voudou is a complex blending of West African and popular Catholic traditions. Paul Farmer gave the best description of Voudou’s place in Haitian culture and society when he thus described a firmly Christian peasant: “Of course he believes in Voudou. He just believes it’s wrong.” The Voudou question strikes at the heart of Haitian religious life. For its practitioners, Voudou offers a pantheon of friendly spirits, or lwas, that offer avenues to healing and hope. For its opponents, including many conservative Protestants and Catholics, it is spirit possession and satanic worship. The two sides disagree on what percentage of Voudou involves curses and malevolence, but both agree that such things are part of the religion. And, for those who oppose Voudou, Boukman’s ceremony in Bois Caiman sold the country to the devil.

For religious conservatives in Haiti and abroad, the idea that the leaders of the slave revolt led and participated in a Voudou ceremony provides a troubling contrast to presentations of the United States’ founding fathers as devout Christians, one that explains their vastly different fortunes. Many view the U.S. invasions and the rule of the Duvaliers as indications of the devil’s two hundred year lease on the country.

So, that is what he meant by “pact with the devil”. Of course, thinking that an earthquake is caused by anything other than natural forces (e. g., brought upon by the wrath of a deity) is ignorant.

(hat tip: Friendly Atheist…who wonders about the units on this graph. )

Science: more about this “life on Mars”:

Final proof that Mars has bred life will be confirmed this year, leading NASA experts believe. The historic discovery will come not on Mars itself but from chunks of the red planet here on Earth.

David McKay, chief of astrobiology at NASA’s Johnson Space Centre in Houston, says powerful new microscopes and other instruments will establish whether features in martian meteorites are alien fossils.

Ok,…but the key paragraph is here:

He added: “We do not yet believe that we have rigorously proven there is – or was – life on Mars.

That is what is important for those of us who aren’t working on this.

Go ahead and surf to the reader comments; some are hilarious! Here is one of them:

If this turns out to be true, then one other thing will be just as true, they will be illegal immigrants without papers and must be sent back immediately to prevent more of their lazy and shiftless kind from hitching their fat bacterial butts on outgoing debris from meteor impacts and heading our way to make a new home for themselves living the high life supported completely by our much more expansive and generous Earth Biome. If we don’t stop them a few million hear hence, the once proud human race could be reduced to beggars on their own planet whose survival depends on the generosity of extremely small but highly organized imperialistic bacterial organism from Mars.