More Posts (8 January 2010)

Ok, I am not being very disciplined today. Back to my usual activities after this…promise.

Health Care Reform: Paul Krugman explains:

Jonathan Chait reads Peggy Noonan, so I don’t have to:

The public in 2009 would have been happy to see a simple bill that mandated insurance companies offer coverage without respect to previous medical conditions. The administration could have had that—and the victory of it—last winter.

Instead, they were greedy for glory.

Chait explains why this is nonsense. But let me explain at fuller length,

Surf to the post to see the full explanation. But it goes roughly like this: say you want health insurance companies to have to cover everyone who wants coverage. Well, that will attract an unusually high percentage of chronically sick and newly sick people. Hence the companies have to charge very high rates, which will drive away the healthy.

So, because insurance works by spreading the risk, you need to get the healthy (and predominately young) to get coverage, hence the mandate (which, yes, President Obama did NOT include in his suggested plan when he was campaigning; Secretary Clinton did). But if you require people to get insurance, you have to make it affordable for the poor. Krugman points out that is more or less what we are getting from Congress now.

But go ahead and read his post; he explains it better than I do.

Legal Stuff
Do you know the differences between copyright protection and design pattern protection? Go here to find out.

What about free speech and first amendment issues? Believe it or not, some people thinks that freedom of speech means that you have some protection from criticism! Of course it doesn’t; you might have free speech in that the government can’t prosecute you, but other people sure as heck are free to denounce you and your views, and your employer might decide to fire you. We had a Vice Presidential candidate who didn’t seem to understand this:

Somehow, in Sarah Palin’s brain, it’s a threat to the First Amendment when newspapers criticize her negative attacks on Barack Obama. This is actually so dumb that it hurts:

In a conservative radio interview that aired in Washington, D.C. Friday morning, Republican vice presidential nominee Gov. Sarah Palin said she fears her First Amendment rights may be threatened by “attacks” from reporters who suggest she is engaging in a negative campaign against Barack Obama.

Palin told WMAL-AM that her criticism of Obama’s associations, like those with 1960s radical Bill Ayers and the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, should not be considered negative attacks. Rather, for reporters or columnists to suggest that it is going negative may constitute an attack that threatens a candidate’s free speech rights under the Constitution, Palin said.

“If [the media] convince enough voters that that is negative campaigning, for me to call Barack Obama out on his associations,” Palin told host Chris Plante, “then I don’t know what the future of our country would be in terms of First Amendment rights and our ability to ask questions without fear of attacks by the mainstream media.”

Maureen Dowd recently made an equally stupid comment when she complained that her First Amendment rights were being violated by the McCain campaign’s refusal to allow her on their campaign plane.

The First Amendment is actually not that complicated. It can be read from start to finish in about 10 seconds. It bars the Government from abridging free speech rights. It doesn’t have anything to do with whether you’re free to say things without being criticized, or whether you can comment on blogs without being edited, or whether people can bar you from their private planes because they don’t like what you’ve said.

The First Amendment doesn’t give you the right to, say, broadcast stuff in the dead of night (thereby waking up your neighbors) nor does it give you the right to a captive audience (e. g., you shouldn’t expect the right to public prayer at a government run public event).

Public Figures, Libel and Defamation Here is a nice post on the difference between public and private figures with regards to defamation laws. Roughly speaking, if you try to defame me, I need only prove that what you said was false and what you said cause harm to me. The standard for a public figure is much higher.

Politics, Polling and Statistics Nate Silver notes that Rasmussen tends to show arch-right wing candidates as having stronger support than other pollsters. He then goes on to make a conjecture as to why this is so and…in an ultimate irony, why the Rasmussen polls might actually be a less accurate snapshot of current public opinion, but also a better predictor of the future election! (stats geeks will understand Mr. Silver’s title).

Here is an analogy to explain Mr. Silver’s concluding point: suppose one was trying to poll the Democratic presidential candidates in 2007. If one polled “generic Democrats”, one would find then Senator Clinton with a big lead. If one instead polled Democrats who had, say, previously done work for the Democratic party (e. g., people like me), then Senator Obama would have shown more support. So, the latter poll would NOT have accurately reflected the public opinion AT THAT TIME but would have better predicted what would happen in the future.

If Global Warming is real, why is it so f**king cold right now?

Yes, I spent some time shoveling ourselves out of the recent snowstorm and yes, my feet got very, very cold in the process. Yes, it is supposed to get to -5 F tonight (-20 C).

So what about global warming???? How about a little global warming here? I want Al Gore to refund the money I spent on seeing An Inconvenient Truth!

Not really.
Think of it this way: suppose my house was well insulated and was at, say, 70F in the living areas. But in the middle of the house I had one super well insulated room whose doors were perfectly sealed and the temperature in that room was a Minnesota like -40 F.

Still, in the comfort of my living room, I don’t notice; I feel the 70 F.

Now apply heat everywhere; the cold, insulated room rises from -40 to -38, and my living room rises from 70 F to 71 F. But now, I open the previously sealed doors to the “cold room”.

What happens? Well, my comfortable living room isn’t so comfortable now; I feel a cold wave. But in fact, the overall temperature inside the house has, in fact, gone up, even though I feel colder; it is just that this cold air is no longer concentrated in one area but instead “smeared out”.

Yes, the above is a grossly simplified example, but that is more or less what is happening now.
(for a primer on these terms, see here)

Usually, airflows (e. g., the jetsteam) keep the arctic air mass bottled up away from us. But winds have changed direction:

“Arctic air masses always exist; it’s just a matter of where they go,” Miller said. “Most of the time, they stay well to our north, but winds above us at 18,000 feet (the jet stream) change direction, and they are now pushing the arctic air our way.”

Miller said meteorology is a very young science and that can make it hard to predict. Climate events like El Nino happen all the time and aren’t always the culprit behind changing weather.

The National Weather Service describes an El Nino as a large scale ocean atmosphere climate phenomenon linking to warming sea surface temperatures in the east Pacific Ocean.

“It’s very difficult to point to one event and say ‘this is what’s causing it,’” she said. “El Ninos for us in North Texas generally bring above average winter precipitation and slightly below average temperatures, however many El Ninos differ from each other! It makes forecasting challenging to say the least.”

So right now, that bitterly cold arctic air is pounding us. But ironically, this may well raise arctic temperatures even as it freezes out the rest of us; that cold is more spread out than usual.

Of course, temperatures will always vary; just because, say, the mean temperature in Peoria, IL rises by say, 1 F, doesn’t mean that we won’t have periods of bitterly cold weather; we are just likely to have fewer of them.

Note: I am NOT a climate scientist; I warmly welcome correction from those with climate science credentials.

(yes, “warmly” is right).

8 January 2010-AM

I am getting ready to shovel us out (Barbara paid someone to do part of it yesterday while I was on the road); I’ll probably do something in the gym when I am done…then get back to mathematics.

College Football:
I did ok in my bowl picks:

I finished 3′rd out of 130 in my “fans of Navy” group. But given that I didn’t have much faith in my BCS championship prediction (Alabama) I actually fell from my number 1 perch. My biggest misses: Wyoming over Fresno State (I didn’t see that one at all) and Boise State over TCU. Where I lucked out: Arkansas over ECU; ECU should have won the game.

Note that I outperformed the Sangarin computer:

Here, the computer picked the games based on the Sagarrin ratings AND ranked the “confidence” of each pick based on the size of the spread.

Note: these picks used “confidence” ratings: I was “sure” that Fresno State would beat Wyoming so I assigned that game 34 points…and didn’t get these when Wyoming pulled the upset.

Here they are in full:

I admit that I went with a hunch for the Stanford-Oklahoma and the USC-Boston College games; in each case the favorite was more interested in the game than I thought that they would be.

Note: I went 11-6 in my “most confident” picks and 12-5 in my “least confident” picks. I went 8-2 for my “10 most confident” picks and 8-2 for my “least 10 confident” picks. For the 5 most, it was “4-1″ for both “most confident” and “least confident”. Obviously my being confident didn’t mean anything.

BCS note: Rate Your Students notes that Ingram is on the Dean’s list. Ok, it is communications and not in physics. But still, given that he is an excellent athlete and has a father in prison, that is pretty darned good. The Alabama quarterback is in a position to apply for a Rhodes Scholarship (ok chances are slim, but to be in a position to credibly apply is an honor). Congratulations!

Other stuff
Talk about the evolutionary arms race: check out how well camouflaged this caterpillar is!

This parent’s letter is discouraging. But, the fact that is letter is labeled as a FAIL is encouraging.

see more Epic Fails

Alabama’s Defense Makes the Difference: BCS 2009-2010.

Well, the first quarter is over. Basically, Alabama started with the ball, had to punt but then tried a fake punt, which was stopped.

But when UT got the ball to the 12, their quarterback went down with an injury; so where UT got the ball down to the Alabama 1, a penalty pushed them back and the Crimson Tide defense held; so UT kicked a field goal to go up 3-0.

Then Alabama botched the kick return (forgot to field it); UT got the ball at the 30 and, due to super conservative play calling, UT only managed 5 yards and kicked another field goal.

The teams traded punts then Alabama drove the ball inside the UT 5 when the quarter ended.

So now we are in quarter 2, and Alabama scored. The Crimson Tide are dominating scrimmage line play at the moment, running the ball very well.

The Longhorn offense is doing nothing.

Note: The UT quarterback is inexperienced and rusty; this is one reason why pro football teams that have a play-off seed/spot locked up will get their back-up some real-game experience. I’ve seen the 49′ers and the Cowboys do this during their hey-day.

Update Midway through the second quarter: Alabama is up 14-6, but is dominating by a bigger margin than that.

So far, with 7:59 left in the first half, the Crimson Tide has 92 yards rushing. There was a HUGE hole during that last 49 yard touchdown run.

But it is still only an 8 point game. But where are UT’s points going to come from? It is tough to run on Alabama in any circumstance but is especially tough when they know it is coming. Interception. Oh well…drive over.

Now Alabama is running the ball at will. Texas holds, but has the ball at their own 2 after a good Alabama punt. Texas punted it back and the Tide picked up 8 yards and now have it first down on the UT 29.

Texas held them to a field goal; it is 17-6 with 29 seconds left; my guess is that UT will run out the clock.

Oh my goodness; UT took a time out with 18 seconds…tried a shovel pas….got it intercepted and run back for a touchdown! Now it is 24-6 Alabama. At first I thought it was bone-headed, but UT had to take a risk; UT had one drop in the end zone. But this risk didn’t work out.

Total yards at the half favor Alabama 182-91; Texas got 6 points from 2 Crimson Tide mistakes, Alabama got 7 on one Longhorn mistake (and stopped a drive with an interception).

Almost at the end of 3: Texas struck on a long pass (Alabama went conservative on offense) and cut it to 24-13 and now got an onside kick. If they can cash in….maybe we’ll have a game?

Nope, but Alabama is pinned on their own 6; will Alabama stay conservative?

Note: they got bailed out on a shaky pass interference call….but ended up missing a 52 yard field goal. 11:33 are left…can UT mount a comeback?

Well, maybe so!

A long drive based on passing got UT to within 24-19 and a 2 point conversion made it 24-21. This is very much in doubt!

But now the Crimson Tide is back in their offense with 5:09 to go; Ingram is back. It almost always takes the second or third hit to stop him. But they passed and missed. 3:21; 4′th and 8. What will happen?

Oh goodness…big sack, fumble, Alabama’s ball at the UT 3. Now second and goal. Make it third and goal at the 1. If they hold here and make Alabama kick the field goal…there is an outside chance.

TD Alabama……it is all but over.

Credit the Alabama defense: they held Texas when UT had two early chances, knocked the Texas QB out, stopped a drive with an interception, ran an interception back for a TD, then set up a 3 yard touchdown drive.

Another interception; Alabama punched it in. 37-21 Alabama. The defense scored one TD, set up two more and made a big play to prevent another one.
(photos from yahoo)

Planes, Trains, Automobiles (conclusion 2010)

It started at 3:00 am when Southwest airlines told me that my flight was canceled. It ended at 6 pm when I pulled into my snow-covered driveway in Peoria.

Ironically, though my 7 am (to land at 9:45 am) flight was canceled, I got a 7:15 flight to Dallas, which lead to a 8:55 flight to Kansas City, which stayed on the ground an extra hour and went on to Midway and got us in about 1:30. By 2:30 I was at my car with my bag, and the trip home featured some snowy/icy patches, but the snow/ice only added 30 minutes extra.

En route, I finished one book (Richard Dawkins: The Greatest Show on Earth) and read most of two newspapers (New York Times, Austin American Statesman).

In the Austin airport, there were a ton of people wearing Texas burnt orange, including some who were flying to Los Angeles to go to Pasadena. Austin is excited about the game.

When I got home, my wife had bean soup and decaf coffee waiting for me.
So now the game is about to start! Hook ‘em!

(ps: though I’ll cheer for Texas, I picked Alabama in the Yahoo Bowl Pick’em.)

Yes, I am currently ranked 1st out of 130 “fans of Navy” and in the 98′th percentile of all yahoo pickers. But that will probably not last.

Just for the heck of it, here is a John Kelso column (pre-sour grapes from UT fans?)

Texas is playing the Crimson Tide in Pasadena this week for the national championship, and it’s going to be a real booger trying to beat these goobers.

OK, so Alabama, a formidable foe, comes with running back Mark Ingram, the Heisman Trophy winner who hails from Flint, Mich. I went through the Alabama roster checking players’ hometowns, and Ingram is only one of two players on the Alabama team from up north.

What this means is that Ingram is one of only two guys on the Alabama team who doesn’t know how to dynamite fish.

Texas brings its steer mascot Bevo out to California for the game. This could be problematic because the Alabama fans might try to eat him in the parking lot.

The Alabama mascot is the Crimson Tide. The red tide. Interesting mascot.

In other words, the University of Alabama has a mascot named after a fish kill. So what do these Alabama folks bring to the games for a mascot? A bucket of dead carp?

Actually, Alabama also uses an elephant as a mascot. This is because an illustration of a bucket of dead fish doesn’t look good on a hat.

For this game, Texas may be seriously out-rednecked. In its national championship game on Jan. 4, 2006, that was not the case, because Texas whupped the University of Southern California.

The only thing Alabama and Southern California have in common is that the Beverly Hillbillies ended up in Southern California. And if they weren’t from Alabama, they should have been.

It’s traditional for the Alabama Million Dollar Band to march onto the field at the half and form a double-wide. The University of Alabama is in Tuscaloosa, which is the Indian word meaning tube top.

If you’re fixing to start up a tent revival, Alabama would be as good as any place to do it.

A little Bama history: Back in 2003, Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore made national news when he refused to remove a 5,280-pound Ten Commandments monument from the lobby of the Alabama Supreme Court. I can’t think of anything done in Texas that could keep up with that in the Bubba department, except when Gov. Rick Perry hinted it might be time for Texas to secede from the Union.

The difference is in Alabama, most people think they’ve seceded already.

The Ten Commandments monument issue so inspired me that I wrote my own list of Alabama Commandments to put on Judge Moore’s big rock. My favorite one was “Thy shalt honor thy daddy and thy mama, as soon as you can figure out who they are.”

So Roll Tide. Roll over and play dead.

John Kelso’s column appears on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Contact him at 445-3606 or jkelso@statesman.com