What Happens When Everyone Has Access

I love the internet; there is just so much information available at one’s fingertips.

But there is a price: if the data is available for the intellectually competent, it is also available for the dummies, woos, crack pots and morons who haven’t a clue as to how to properly use or interpret it:

Many scientific organizations, such as the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, now put data (some near real-time) on their Web sites. The information ranges from raw numbers from weather stations to computed values of, for instance, monthly global temperature anomalies, which represent temperature deviations from a historical average. Typically researchers make corrections and adjustments as they check equipment and replicate experiments.

In today’s politically charged environment, though, these routine corrections have become ammunition in the warming war. For example, last November Internet users found that raw data erroneously replicated from Russian weather stations contributed to a suspiciously high temperature anomaly that Goddard published. Two years ago the blog Climate Audit, run by amateur scientists and self-described “science auditor” Steve McIntyre, found that an error in a computer algorithm had ranked 1998 as the warmest U.S. year, instead of the correct 1934. (The change did not significantly affect global values: 1998 was still the earth’s warmest year as ranked by satellites, although Goddard has 2005 as slightly warmer.)

But perhaps the mistake that got the most publicity for skeptics happened in February as an automated system of the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) published information on the extent of Arctic sea ice. It contained a small but strange hitch indicating that enough ice to cover California was suddenly gone. Internet readers pounced, sending e-mails to the center and also to skeptical bloggers such as meteorologist Anthony Watts. His blog, Watt’s Up with That?, is read daily by about 21,000 people around the world (according to Quantcast, which compiles Web site statistics), and Watts’s post about the error mushroomed across the Web. Within hours the NSIDC withdrew the data, ultimately finding that the glitch resulted from a faulty sensor on a satellite. The NSIDC scientists admitted the mistake, corrected the problem using a different sensor and audited all past data.

But the public-relations damage was done. Skeptical bloggers and their readers called the NSIDC’s competence into question and accused it of tweaking data. The NSIDC sent out a press release pointing out that real-time data are always less reliable than thoroughly reviewed archived data.

Word of the otherwise prosaic issue spread via news reports, and the NSIDC took its lumps. “We were too naive,” admits Walt Meier, a researcher at the center. “We weren’t prepared for how closely people were watching.” The science community knows that such adjustments happen all the time, he says, but “the undermining of public confidence in our data comes from ignorance of use.” But he still believes that open-source data are “ultimately a great thing.”

If there were any justice, these crackpots, imbeciles and woos would be denied all benefits that derive from properly done science (e. g., computers, medicines, vaccines, etc.) but that isn’t going to happen.

Republicans: their own words (21 July 09)

Just a question: how are we supposed to have civil discourse when we have incredibly stupid, ignorant people who are sold on an unfalsifiable idea?

This is why I limit who I speak to.

The very idea that they actually lost the election (fair and square) is lost on these imbeciles.

Photos From FANS 24 2009

21 July 09 (am)

Workout notes 3.5 mile walk with Olivia yesterday, and then I lead a yoga class (as a substitute).

Today: 3.75 mile walk to yoga, yoga with Ms. Vickie, then 4.25 mile walk back. My left “behind the knee” area was slightly whiny, but felt better when I was warmed up enough to pick up the pace a bit.

Topics The Sun is undergoing a “lower than normal” sunspot cycle:

Indeed, last year marked the blankest year of the Sun in the last half-century — 266 days with not a single sunspot visible from Earth. Then, in the first four months of 2009, the Sun became even more blank, the pace of sunspots slowing more.

“It’s been as dead as a doornail,” David Hathaway, a solar physicist at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala., said a couple of months ago.

The Sun perked up in June and July, with a sizeable clump of 20 sunspots earlier this month.

Now it is blank again, consistent with expectations that this solar cycle will be smaller and calmer, and the maximum of activity, expected to arrive in May 2013 will not be all that maximum.

For operators of satellites and power grids, that is good news. The same roiling magnetic fields that generate sunspot blotches also accelerate a devastating rain of particles that can overload and wreck electronic equipment in orbit or on Earth.

There are also effects on the weather:

The Sun, the Danish scientists say, influences how many cosmic rays impinge on the atmosphere and thus the number of clouds. When the Sun is frenetic, the solar wind of charged particles it spews out increases. That expands the cocoon of magnetic fields around the solar system, deflecting some of the cosmic rays.

But, according to the hypothesis, when the sunspots and solar winds die down, the magnetic cocoon contracts, more cosmic rays reach Earth, more clouds form, less sunlight reaches the ground, and temperatures cool.

“I think it’s an important effect,” Dr. Svensmark said, although he agrees that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that has certainly contributed to recent warming.

Dr. Svensmark and his colleagues found a correlation between the rate of incoming cosmic rays and the coverage of low-level clouds between 1984 and 2002. They have also found that cosmic ray levels, reflected in concentrations of various isotopes, correlate well with climate extending back thousands of years.

But other scientists found no such pattern with higher clouds, and some other observations seem inconsistent with the hypothesis.

Terry Sloan, a cosmic ray expert at the University of Lancaster in England, said if the idea were true, one would expect the cloud-generation effect to be greatest in the polar regions where the Earth’s magnetic field tends to funnel cosmic rays.

“You’d expect clouds to be modulated in the same way,” Dr. Sloan said. “We can’t find any such behavior.”

Still, “I would think there could well be some effect,” he said, but he thought the effect was probably small. Dr. Sloan’s findings indicate that the cosmic rays could at most account for 20 percent of the warming of recent years.

Even without cosmic rays, however, a 0.1 percent change in the Sun’s energy output is enough to set off El Niño- and La Niña-like events that can influence weather around the world, according to new research led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.

Climate modeling showed that over the largely cloud-free areas of the Pacific Ocean, the extra heating over several years warms the water, increasing evaporation. That intensifies the tropical storms and trade winds in the eastern Pacific, and the result is cooler-than-normal waters, as in a La Niña event, the scientists reported this month in the Journal of Climate.

In a year or two, the cool water pattern evolves into a pool of El Niño-like warm water, the scientists said.

Because there are crackpots who deny climate change out there I feel obligated to say this: the lead scientist of the above study says that he was just ferreting out the smaller, natural changes from the larger human-caused changes. (hat tip: 3-quarks daily)

Psychology
Here is a Scientific American paper on perfectionism:

* Perfectionists can become discouraged by failing to meet impossibly high standards, making them reluctant to take on new challenges or even complete agreed-upon tasks. The insistence on dotting all the i’s can also breed inefficiency, causing delays, work overload and even poor results.
* Perfectionism can encompass some positive qualities, including a drive to succeed, an inclination to plan and organize, and a focus on excellence. So-called healthy perfectionists embrace the trait’s sunnier side while minimizing its darker features.
* In recent years researchers have developed tools to parse and measure the beneficial, along with the detrimental, aspects of perfectionism. In addition, they are developing treatment programs that push perfectionistic tendencies in a more positive direction.

Here is what I found interesting:

Perfectionists may also adopt inefficient work habits that hurt their actual performance. They may labor slowly, agonizing over every detail, spending much more time on a project than it warrants—and often without much additional benefit. They may procrastinate, because projects that must be perfect often seem daunting [see “I’ll Do It Tomorrow,” by Trisha Gura; Scientific American Mind, December 2008/January 2009]. Robert Abatecola, 42, spent five years researching Victorian plastering techniques before he got around to repairing the cracked walls in his San Jose, Calif., home because he wanted to be sure to preserve the 1896 Queen Anne–style house’s historical authenticity.

No one is a perfectionist in every situation or area of life. Some people are persnickety about the neatness of their home, others about their work, still others about their physical appearance or about relationships—for example, wanting to pen the ideal personalized note inside dozens of holiday cards every year.

And this:

The winning formula for a perfectionist, psychologists say, is the ability to strive for excellence without being overly self-critical. Those who adopt this strategy, so-called healthy perfectionists, are relaxed and careful in their quest for success; they focus on their strengths and find great satisfaction in their achievements. Bowen, the lacrosse champ, may be one of these. So may 28-year-old Jennifer Perrone of Atlanta. In addition to her career as a wildlife biologist, Perrone sells Mary Kay cosmetics. She alphabetizes her file cabinets and labels her tool drawers; she finished planning her May 2009 wedding, literally writing the last check, the previous October. Perrone believes that she is highly effective. She does not push herself beyond what she knows she can do, and other than annoying her fiancé when she bugs him to take off his shoes in the house, she says, “It’s difficult to think of a time when it didn’t work to my benefit.”

In fact, research conducted over the past 15 years has associated positive perfectionism with greater achievement, such as higher grade point averages and better performance in triathlons. Positive-striving perfectionism leads to better health and mood, more sociability and higher levels of life satisfaction. When Bieling and his colleagues separated positive perfectionists from unhealthy ones in their 2003 midterm-exam study, they found that the positive perfectionists felt better prepared for the exam and got higher grades than either unhealthy perfectionists or nonperfectionists. Olympic athletes also turned out to be positive perfectionists when assessed by Frost’s test in a small survey published in 2002.

By the way, I am ANYTHING but a perfectionist; I need to become more of a perfectionist. (hat tip: 3 quarks daily)

Side note: Yes, I know lots of people who refer to themselves as “perfectionists” and yet I see scant evidence of it in them.

Social

The Wall Street Journal cites pay inequities (difference between CEO and worker pay) as a problem??? I nearly fainted when I read this.

Marine Corps: recruiting from group homes for the mentally ill?

This is going to be short, but should get the notice it needs and the corrections in a system that is broken, in a military breaking, in many ways, because of the failed policies of the previous administration and those beating the drums of war but unwilling to serve!

Joshua Fry Was Recruited Out of Group Home for Mentally Disabled

Autistic Marine Court Martialed and Given Bad Conduct Discharge

This had just started coming out yet this kid has been jailed apparently for slightly over a year. Not only was he recruited he went through boot, in the Marines, and was integrated into the Corps with No Objections, then did time as it was going through the military system, and was sentenced to more military prison time!

A Marine whose recruitment is under investigation because he is autistic was sentenced to four years in prison at his court martial Monday, but in a plea deal he will be released for time already served and receive a bad conduct discharge.

This now Marine suffers from Autism, and known condition. The recruitment should never have happened, but how was it nobody, from Command on Down, at a number of places, stopped this all from happening.

Ok, a bit of honesty: back in 1981, I was doing some temporary duty with a recruiting station (Navy) and yes, many were screened out due to low scores on a mental abilities exam. But the Army recruited these by the bushel and, remember, recruiters are often under enormous pressure to “make goal”. So these things happened even then, though there is evidence that standards have been lowered due to the strain on our armed forces.

Health Care

President Obama is taking his case for health care reform to the internet.

In a reflection of a legislative strategy that has left no stone unturned, President Barack Obama on Monday called on like-minded bloggers to help his administration keep the heat on lawmakers to pass health care reform.

“It is important just to keep the pressure on members of Congress because what happens is there is a default position of inertia here in Washington,” the president said during an invitation-only conference call. “And pushing against that, making sure that people feel that the desperation that ordinary families are feeling all across the country, every single day, when they are worrying about whether they can pay their premiums or not… People have to feel that in a visceral way. And you guys can help deliver that better than just about anybody.”

In a roughly 25-minute session with a handful of prominent progressive bloggers, the president also asked for help combating disinformation about his health care plan.

“I know the blogs are best at debunking myths that can slip through a lot of the traditional media outlets,” he said. “And that is why you are going to play such an important role in our success in the weeks to come.”

The call demonstrates just how heated the health care debate has become in recent weeks and how much ammunition the administration is willing to bring to the table. At various points in the call, the president offered a strikingly detailed synopsis of his political strategy and health care policy as a whole.

Racism: Far From Dead

Even Harvard professors aren’t safe:

Harvard professor Henry Louis Gates Jr., one of the nation’s pre-eminent African-American scholars, was arrested Thursday afternoon at his home by Cambridge police investigating a possible break-in. The incident raised concerns among some Harvard faculty that Gates was a victim of racial profiling.

Police arrived at Gates’s Ware Street home near Harvard Square at 12:44 p.m. to question him. Gates, director of the W.E.B. Du Bois Institute for African and African American Research at Harvard, had trouble unlocking his door after it became jammed.

He was booked for disorderly conduct after “exhibiting loud and tumultuous behavior,” according to a police report. Gates accused the investigating officer of being a racist and told him he had “no idea who he was messing with,” the report said.
Gates told the officer that he was being targeted because “I’m a black man in America.”

Harvard professors are now suspects for break ins?

Yes, this will get some play. But think about how many times this has happened to people whose public stature is less.

Yes, this happened in a “blue” state; racism isn’t exclusive to the south.

Paul Krugman: The Conscience of a Liberal

I just finished Paul Krugman’s book The Conscience of a Liberal. The whole book was good; the basic theme is that the new Republicans (“movement conservatives”) have a goal of dismantling Roosevelt’s New Deal.

He points out that in the relatively recent past (as recently as Nixon) that it was easier to be bipartisan; now the sides are simply too far apart on the issues for “bipartisanship” to work.

Krugman thinks that the country is ready for a “New” New Deal if the Democrats have the political will.

Krugman throws zingers here and there, but mostly he argues his case; he really goes after the growing inequality (calls it an attempt to return to the long Gilded Age, which he sees as ending with the FDR administration.) He points out the soaring inequity between the very rich and the normal and points out that is inequity is the reason that current economic models (those “economic indicators” ) don’t caputre how well the typical American is doing. That is, the traditional economic numbers can be up but the average person could still be doing poorly.

The whole book is good, but what is of interest to me at the moment is his take on health care, which I will outline below:

Moral Argument Against a Public Plan
Why would anyone openly argue against having some sort of a public plan? The one moral argument: “hey bad stuff happens to people all of the time and no one has the right to be protected from that. If you get sick and can’t pay for it…sorry, but that is your tough break. That is life.” Of course, even Republican politicians who agree with that won’t make that argument in public.

Socialized Insurance Great Britain has socialized medicine (doctors who work for the government) but here we are really talking about having some government plan for insurance.

How well is it working?
The World Health Organization ranks us as being 37′th in the world; France is ranked 1. We spend $6102 per person (as opposed to $3150 per person in France) and yet our life expectancy is about 2 years less. No, things like our problems with chronic obesity cannot account for the difference in expense.

As far as wait times for stuff: the Germans and French have no appreciable wait times; Canadians have a longer wait time for things like hip replacement than we do, but note that most of our hip replacements are paid by Medicare!

Economics What current insurance companies do and consequences: of course the insurance companies try to avoid insuring the sickest and try to avoid paying out claims; no company can survive if they are stuck with the sickest patients. So, this leads to the company having a unit to avoid paying costs, the hospitals and doctors having a unit to get the insurance companies to pay, and the companies to have human resource people deal with the insurance companies. All this is expense that is not going to actual health care.

Why Government insurance can be more effective

Not only does the government not have to deal with all of this claim denial, but the government can invest in prevention. It doesn’t make sense for the health insurance companies to invest in prevention as most people will eventually leave their current health plans. Hence, prevention might well make the person better, but it won’t save the health insurance company money.

Medical Progress: the cost
Those who can afford it have access to very expensive, cutting edge medical technology. Those who can’t don’t even have access to basic care. Hence, some at the top prosper at the expense of many more towards the bottom.

Obstacles: they won’t go away
Insurance companies, drug companies and their benefactors don’t have incentive to negotiate away their advantaged position; hence health care reform should be achieved without them.

Paths and Features
From an economics perspective, single payer is best, but is politically impossible. So the following features should be included:

1. Community rating: no differential in the premiums (e. g., charging the potentially sick higher premiums or denying them coverage)

2. Subsidies for low income families

3. Mandated coverage (Obama and Clinton differed here)

4. A public medicare type option to compete with the private option; allowing people to buy extra coverage would be ok (as is allowed in France but not in Canada)

Paying for it: this shouldn’t be more expensive than the Bush tax cuts.

Thoughts on Domestic Violence, Tone, Credibility and Methodology

This article (about President Obama appointing an adviser on violence against women) got me to thinking about many issues. The first of these is tone.

Obviously, tone doesn’t matter that much if one is writing about, say, a mathematical result. But when one is talking about a social issue and one is writing for the general public, tone matters. When I read the headlines about such a topic my emotional reaction is something like “oh boy, the feminists are whining about how badly men suck or the social conservatives are whining about how feminists suck” and I am tempted to skip the article.

For example, check out one of the comments on the article.

Thank you. As a woman, I feel great hope and relief when men address Domestic Violence. I think it is something only men can address men about because misogyny makes them deaf to women.Thank you.

And frankly, I did skip the article at first. But when I came back to it and started to read I saw this:

President Obama recently created the first-ever position of White House adviser on violence against women. Across the land, at corporate water coolers and in taverns, in locker rooms and on bass boats a growing band of men immediately lifted their voices in protest: “What about an adviser on violence against men?” They’re serious, these “men’s rights” advocates, and they have a point. To a point.

Violence by women against men is a real issue, however much this may be denied by a coterie of dear friends in the anti-violence-against-women movement. Non-defensive violence by a woman against a man is insupportable; it cries out to be investigated and adjudicated thoroughly and accurately, the chips falling where they may. Justice demands no less.

Ok, I thought; “maybe this article is worth reading.”

But then I read the next line:

That said, it’s time to get real, men: Domestic violence is essentially and fundamentally a male problem.

Well, is it? To be honest, I don’t know. The conclusions vary widely by survey.

One credible one (National Institute of Justice) appears to show that women are about three times more likely to be physically assaulted by their partners than men (pdf report)

(click to enlarge)

whereas other ones report that men and women are equally likely to initiate physical assaults on their partners (same source);

Other sources: here) and here (Florida State Law Review by Kelly)

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and here (lots of resources, such as this one.

Of course, it is true that men do more damage than women:

(click to enlarge)

So, what’s the skinny? I have to admit that I am a bit confused; I am going to have to study the methodology section to the NIJ article.

But when thinking about this, I did come to the following conclusion: I will decide on the reports and on the data rather than on the personalities making the argument and by the fact that people sometimes make non-credible arguments for correct positions.

There was a time when I was likely to dismiss something out of hand just because I didn’t like the person making the argument or because someone was making a bad argument. (example: Cal Thomas argues for Francis Collins being picked to head the NIH; his arguments are stupid (no surprise) and I despise Cal Thomas, but I still think that this a good pick)

Back to the domestic violence issue; the data: criminal versus actual

The context of the survey does make a difference. Here is an example from my past:
technically speaking, I’ve been hit by a spouse. Here is the situation: we were playing basketball and I inadvertently elbowed my spouse in the breast. That hurt.

She responded by slugging me right in the chest with her fist.

Now the punch didn’t injure me, nor was it really intended to. I don’t consider that to be criminal; that was a “in the heat of the game” moment, in my opinion. But were I answering a non-criminal survey, I would say “yes, my spouse hit me”.

But that has nothing to do with domestic violence.

19 July 09 (am)

Workout notes 14 mile walk on the East Peoria Trail. 1 mile easy, 1 mile drills, the next 12 were “2-1″; I was 1:07 at the turn around (just past 5), 2:08 back at the trail head (1:01 for that 5 mile stretch) and it took 49 minutes for the next 4 mile (plus) segment. My technique felt fine; this wasn’t an easy walk but it wasn’t hard either.

It was cool and I wore long sleeves.

Climate Change: Nate Silver posts a challenge. I won’t take him up on it, but I might crunch the data just to see what happens.

Speaking of climate change: A recent article came out about the effects of solar cycles with weather patterns (El Nino, etc.). Well, the climate change skeptics are using this article to deny the effects of human activity in climate change! (face-palm). These crackpots might want to google the lead author’s name (Meehl); they might find out that he is one of the experts who pointed out that natural factors alone cannot account for the climate change that we’ve seen after 1975.

More Science

There is a lizard that can swim through sand! And yes, there is a moth which has evolved a “click” that foils the sonar of bats (that eat it).

Speaking of science: yes, I subscribe to Scientific American and read science blogs. But people can sometimes water the science down a bit too much.

Health care Here is a hard hitting essay (5 pages, but excellent reading) that discusses the tough issues of rationing. And yes, the current House Bill is is more budget friendly than its foes will admit.

Republicans Losing an election is grounds for overthrowing the government. Really; some of them really “think” that.

It is amazing, but some “conservatives” on facebook were giving me dire warnings about a brewing “revolution”. Well, frankly, I wish that these clowns would form their own country; it would be hilarious to see them attempt to set up any sort of working government and to watch them descend into a 3rd rate theocracy.

Health Care: this is what I like to see!

Yes, this ad is targeting certain “blue dog” Democrats (and a few Republicans):

Now the scope of the campaign is expanding. The ad will appear in the media markets that overlap with the congressional districts of 15 members of the House Energy and Commerce Committee. Eleven of those districts belong to Democrats, including Rep. Zack Space (Ohio), Rep. John Barrow (Georgia), Rep. Jay Inslee (Washington), Rep. Mike Ross (Arkansas), Rep. Bart Gordon (Tennessee), Rep. Baron Hill (Indiana), Rep. Charlie Melancon (Louisiana), Rep. Mike Doyle (Pennsylvania), Rep. Jim Matheson (Utah), Rep. Bart Stupak (Michigan), Rep. Jerry McNerney (California).

The four Republican districts belong to Rep. Fred Upton (Michigan), Rep. Mary Bono Mack (California), and Rep. Greg Walden (Oregon), Rep. Sue Myrick (North Carolina)

For reform advocates, the Energy and Commerce Committee remains the toughest venue of the three committees handling health care in the House of Representatives, in large part because of the Blue Dog and moderate Democrats that make up its ranks. In making this purchase, Organizing for America either is worried about the committee’s progress or — much more likely — sending a message that it has no problem applying pressure on fellow party members.

It is about time!!!

If you want to chip in to run these ads, go here.

Quips…18 July 09, Boxing and Bikinis

Boxing Last night’s Friday Night Fights was interesting. In an early super bantam weight bout, Guillermo Rigondeaux (2-0) knocked out Roberto Guillen (4-3-3) with a wicked left hook to the ribs; at the time Guillen was the busier fighter but Rigondeaux was picking his spots and landing more effective punches. When the left landed, Guillen immediately went down and crumpled up in pain; it was one of the most effective body shots I have ever seen.

In the main event, Miguel Vazquez (25-3, 12 KOs) was knocked down in the first round by no. 7 ranked Breidis Prescott (21-1, 18 KOs) by a jab. But Vazquez came back and dominated the next 9 rounds to win 95-94, 96-93 for Vazquez, 97-92 Prescott.

Though my card had the fight a bit closer than Teddy Atlas had it (Atlas had it 98-91 Vazquez, giving Prescott a 10-8 first round and the rest 10-9 Vazquez), I still don’t understand what the judge who scored it 97-92 Prescott was thinking.

Fun: Huffington Post has a swim suit contest where you can vote on the “hotness” of the various swim suits. Some are wearable, some are bikinis and some are thongs.