blueollie

Has Mr. Morris Ever Heard of Margin of Error?

It is true that President Obama has lost popularity among Republicans. But read this from Dick Morris:

The percentage of Americans who strongly or somewhat approve of how he is doing his job has fallen to 51 percent in the latest Rasmussen polling — the lowest ever. Because Obama got 52 percent of the vote in the presidential race, defeating McCain by 52-47, the fact that his approval has dropped below his vote share indicates that he is actually shedding real support for the first time.

Ahem: from the report itself:

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters–is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Premium Members.

In short, there is no reason to believe that he is below the level of support he had prior to the election.

Oh yes, there are other numbers too.:

U.S. President Barack Obama’s job approval rating is at 58% for the first eight days of July, down from an average of 61% for June. His approval rating among independents is down to 53% so far in July, from 59% in June, while dropping two points among Republicans and gaining a point among Democrats.

So there is a reason to believe in a slight drop; the economy remains the key.

July 10, 2009 - Posted by blueollie | Barack Obama, politics, politics/social, republicans, statistics | | 15 Comments

15 Comments »

  1. This is a trend that will continue. The approach that the Obama administration is taking to fix the economy should actually make things much worse. When the electorate wakes up to 13% unemployment, few new businesses forming, and so much debt that we have no choice but to continue to steal the captial from those that know how to turn it into jobs, there is going to be hell to pay.

    Comment by Iowafalcon | July 11, 2009 | Reply

  2. Please refer to the daily tracking report at Rasmussenreports.com. He has not just dropped, he has dropped like a rock. His strongly approved v. strongly disapprove number was +30 in the beginning of Feb. Yesterday it was -8.

    Comment by Ryan | July 11, 2009 | Reply

  3. Sure his approval has softened; I see this as more as a “regression toward the mean” effect. But my point (about his approval ratings being lower than what he got in the election) still stands.

    I also note the following:

    Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 39.0% Democrats, 32.5% Republicans, and 28.5% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly smaller advantage for the Democrats.

    32.5 percent Republicans in their sample?

    Only 21 percent (or so) identify themselves as Republican

    That is why his numbers are lower in the Rasmussen. But hey, no skin off of my nose…keep believing what you want to believe. :)

    Comment by blueollie | July 11, 2009 | Reply

    • Professional poll readers like Rasmussen, Zogby, and Morris tell us that Obama’s poll numbers are falling — so believe what you want to believe, friend.

      Comment by Donny | July 11, 2009 | Reply

  4. Downward polls aside, Cap and Trade (Tax) will kill the coal producers, meaning more loss jobs in the Coal Industry and Industries who do not want to face higher costs of doing business in the U.S. (I guess those workers can go and become clerks in kitschy boutique shops at about 1/3 their old salaries; and I am sure these folks will feel personally satisfied doing that kind of work.)Government Run Health Care is another disaster in the making–I refer you to Canada and England for what is in store for the Banana Republic of the United States. By the way libs, the Obama health care plan calls for TAXING YOUR BENEFITS–that’s right, you will pay MONEY for it. (Was it ever going to be free? My non-thinking liberal mates.) Yes, sir, if you love Venezula and Cuba, just wait–the Banana Republic of the United States will soon be on an equal footing with them…!

    Comment by Tim | July 11, 2009 | Reply

  5. Just a bit of history:

    Zogby

    This is interesting. The Zogby 2008 Presidential Poll Results reveals McCain leading against Obama. This is for a day’s result. John McCain got 48% as against Barack Obama’s 47% in the Zogby Presidential Poll 2008.

    Rasmussen

    Had McCain winning Florida, Indiana and North Carolina. They also underestimated Obama margins in many other states.

    Morris: do yourself a favor and reread what he wrote the last few days prior to the election

    It’s only a one night poll, but John Zogby reports that his Friday night survey shows McCain leading Obama by 48 to 47. It’s only a one night poll (as opposed to the usual three day moving average) but it is 1,000 interviews. It is also over Halloween night! But it is the first poll in three weeks that shows McCain leading. What’s up? We think that the advertisement being run by GOPTrust.com is having an effect. It is an ad featuring Rev. Jeremiah Wright decrying America and calling it “the USA of KKK” while Obama sat, deaf-mute in the congregation. By bringing the shocking reality of Rev. Wright back to America’s TV screens; GOPTrust.com is performing an important public service. It is just not credible that Obama sat in the congregation for twenty years, asked the Reverend to officiate at his wedding and to baptize his children, titled his book after one of his sermons, and did not know the kind of vile, anti-American hatred he was spewing.

    or here: McCain surges among younger voters

    or here:

    But the swelling turnout may have gone beyond this social outreach. And, as it does, it can help McCain. After all, white voters back McCain by double digits. If the contest inspires them all to vote, Obama will lose.

    So we approach Election Day with the possibility of a rerun of 2000 plainly before us. McCain has closed to a point where the race will likely be very, very close – and we’ll have to stay up very, very late on Election Night.

    So either Mr. Morris was cheerleading (which means he can’t be trusted to be objective) or he was just plain wrong.

    Comment by blueollie | July 11, 2009 | Reply

    • By the way both Rassmussen and Zogby had Obama leading in the last days of the 2008 in key states–check your facts, amigo.

      Comment by Tim | July 12, 2009 | Reply

  6. Tim: In terms of health care, I was thinking more in terms of France or Norway. You might actually ask Canadians what they think; one fact is that far fewer Canadians come here for care; on the other hand many Americans go to Mexico because they can’t afford the care.

    As far as taxes: I’d love to see the figures on premature deaths due to poor health care versus deaths from people from Iraq. Healthcare is part of keeping Americans safe, no?

    Comment by blueollie | July 11, 2009 | Reply

    • What in the hell are you talking about–? Canadians think that their health care is a disaster. Furthermore, why are you rambling on about non-exsisting precise data (like Global Warming –or is it Globla Cooling –whatever) about premature deaths or deaths in Iraq (stick to the Banana Republic of the United States, not knee-jerk all over the map crap).

      Comment by Tim | July 12, 2009 | Reply

  7. Canadians and Brits have to wait in line for their health care. England has a health board that essentially rations who gets what kind of care. Canadians routinely come to the United States to get healthcare–like cancer treatment, etc., there are literally thousands of these kinds of Canada and England stories. However, I have never even heard of anyone–not even in the left-leaning U.S. media do any story on it. But if it was on Keith Oberman then I am sure no one heard it: Keith’s ratings are lower than any PBS programming at 3 AM. Please have a crediable reporter do an examination of Americans fleeing to Mexico for health care there–maybe a good topic for Katie Couric.

    Comment by John V | July 12, 2009 | Reply

  8. Thounsands of Americans fleeing to Mexico to get health care in that country–I never heard this before. I have never heard it anywhere; from any source. It sounds rather made-up just to counter Government run healthcare critics….

    Comment by Greg | July 12, 2009 | Reply

    • They must be illegal immigrants or Mexicans going to Mexico for health care and then coming back again.

      Comment by VV | July 12, 2009 | Reply

  9. John V: “rationing” is exactly what we have now, except for those who can afford it.

    My comments about Mexico and Canada: Part of the claim comes from here.

    Also from here

    Everyone knows that lots of Canadians come to America in search of medical care. But what everyone knows is wrong: a careful study concluded,

    The numbers of true medical refugees—Canadians coming south with their own money to purchase U.S. health care—appear to be handfuls rather than hordes.

    On the other hand:

    Driven by rising health care costs at home, nearly 1 million Californians cross the border each year to seek medical care in Mexico, according a new paper by UCLA researchers and colleagues published today in the journal Medical Care.

    Bottom line: the insurance companies often try to find ways to not pay and those with pre existing conditions are out of luck. Some things cannot be handled solely by the free market.

    Comment by blueollie | July 12, 2009 | Reply

  10. Let’s face it, people. The honeymoon with Barack Obama is over. Gays are mad at him for doing nothing on LGBT issues, lefties are mad because he’s implementing 90% of Bush GWOT policies, and the electorate in geral are steamed at all the lost jobs and wasted stimulus money, most of which has gone to prop up failing state governments instead of toward new jobs.

    You can crunch the numbers any way you like, Ollie. Doesn’t change the realities. And the worse it gets. the lower the numbers will fall. Hell, Republicans could sweep Congress today! Just think of what they’ll do in 2010 after another 16 months of this kind of idiocy from LibDems :)

    Comment by TheMadKing | July 13, 2009 | Reply

  11. Republicans Sweep congress?

    Do you want to bet on that? :)

    As of now on Intrade: it is bid 73.0, ask 78.5 for Ds to retain control of the House. But yeah, he’ll lose seats.

    It is 88-92 for control of the Senate.

    You are correct about many liberals being upset with him.

    Comment by blueollie | July 13, 2009 | Reply


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