Has Mr. Morris Ever Heard of Margin of Error?

It is true that President Obama has lost popularity among Republicans. But read this from Dick Morris:

The percentage of Americans who strongly or somewhat approve of how he is doing his job has fallen to 51 percent in the latest Rasmussen polling — the lowest ever. Because Obama got 52 percent of the vote in the presidential race, defeating McCain by 52-47, the fact that his approval has dropped below his vote share indicates that he is actually shedding real support for the first time.

Ahem: from the report itself:

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters–is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Premium Members.

In short, there is no reason to believe that he is below the level of support he had prior to the election.

Oh yes, there are other numbers too.:

U.S. President Barack Obama’s job approval rating is at 58% for the first eight days of July, down from an average of 61% for June. His approval rating among independents is down to 53% so far in July, from 59% in June, while dropping two points among Republicans and gaining a point among Democrats.

So there is a reason to believe in a slight drop; the economy remains the key.

Rove and rebuttal and other topics

Workout notes 5.3 mile walk (to lower Bradley Park then two 1.2 mile (2000 meter loops) of 2-1: 15:14, 14:35 (this course) Yes, I got caught in the rain, again. It wasn’t that bad though; I did some yoga afterward.

Running I know some people try to use running to keep weight off. Well, running can NOT make up for gross overeating. Here is one person’s experience.

Science

Science quiz: this isn’t really a technical quiz, but rather a quiz on some elementary facts. Astonishingly, only 10 percent of the adult population answered all 12 questions correctly.

(click the image to see a larger version)

Creativity in Science One of the things I never quite understood is the creativity that goes into even making a basic scientific observation. Here is an excellent case of that: a scientist proposes using the moon to help distinguish electrons from positrons when attempting to measure positrons in cosmic rays:

So now Pierre Colin and collaborators have hit upon a cute way to distinguish between electrons and positrons: treat the magnetosphere of the Earth like the interior of a giant particle detector. Ever since cloud chambers, physicists have put magnetic fields in their detectors to help distinguish between positively charged particles and negatively charged particles, which get pushed in opposite directions. Well, the Earth has a magnetic field, so maybe we can use that. The problem is that the positrons and electrons would still all hit a telescope such as MAGIC, so the fact that they were deflected by the magnetic field wouldn’t be very relevant.

But Colin et al. suggest a trick: using the Moon’s shadow. Let’s imagine that the excess positrons really are coming from dark matter annihilating in the galactic center. When the moon is near the position of the galactic center in the sky, it will block out some of those particles, casting a shadow on ground-based telescopes. That’s already interesting, but the fun part is that positrons and electrons will be deflected by the Earth’s magnetic field, so the positron shadow will be in a slightly different position than the electron shadow! Using that effect, it may be possible to distinguish between the signals.

Clever, no?

Science media

One problem with articles written about scientific papers: they are sometimes flat out wrong from the get-go.

In case you’re wondering why so many scientists are distrustful of science journalists, you should take a look at this account from Ben Goldacre. A masters student in psychology gave a talk at a science conference to present her preliminary findings, which, sad to say, were picked up by the Telegraph.

Here’s the title of the Telegraph story.

Women who dress provocatively more likely to be raped, claim scientists
Women who drink alcohol, wear short skirts and are outgoing are more likely to be raped, claim scientists at the University of Leicester

Here’s the actual title of the press release from the University of Leicester describing the work.

Promiscuous men more likely to rape

There seems to be a significant discrepancy in emphasis, yes?

Goldacre called up the student researcher, and got the straight story: the Telegraph title is factually wrong, they found no statistically significant result corresponding to that claim.

Headslap. Moral: if you read a headline about a science article that raises your eyebrow, either go to the source or at least check out an article from a competent science magazine.

Science and politics I’m sure that this doesn’t surprise you:

The comparable figure for Dems is 55%. Here’s the data:

%who are Public% Scientists%
Democratic 35 55
Republican 23 6
Independent 34 32

Ideolog. self-rating
Liberal 20 52
Moderate 38 35
Conservative 37 9

This is from a Pew Research piece on science and scientists, Public Praises Science; Scientists Fault Public, Media

Most of the smartest people are liberal!

Politics
Karl Rove whines about “not being able to trust President Obama’s numbers“:

In February, President Barack Obama signed a $787 billion stimulus bill while making lavish promises about the results. He pledged that “a new wave of innovation, activity and construction will be unleashed all across America.” He also said the stimulus would “save or create up to four million jobs.” Vice President Joe Biden said the massive federal spending plan would “drop-kick” the economy out of the recession.

But the unemployment rate today is 9.5% — nearly 20% higher than the Obama White House said it would be with the stimulus in place. Keith Hennessey, who worked at the Bush White House on economic policy, has noted that unemployment is now higher than the administration said it would be if nothing was done to revive the economy. There are 2.6 million fewer Americans working than Mr. Obama promised.

The economy takes unexpected turns on every president. But what is striking about this president is how quickly he turns away from his promises. He rushed the stimulus through Congress saying we couldn’t afford to wait. Now his administration is waiting to spend the money. Of the $279 billion allocated to federal agencies, only $56 billion has been paid out.

Go ahead and read the rest of the article; it is a valuable addition to the discussion. But I’ll focus on two things:

1. Unemployment: yes, the unemployment numbers are higher than expected; the Obama administration admits that but they claim that it was a matter of not getting the initial conditions right. But no economist expected the stimulus to have an effect on unemployment this early.

2. Yes, the paying out of the stimulus money takes time. We have to get it right, no?

Still a long way to go: Of the $787.2 billion in American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funds, $499 billion is for stimulus projects, of which $157.8 billion has been made available and $56.3 billion has been spent. The biggest chunk, $22 billion, has been spent by states for Medicare and Medicaid payments.

The other $288 billion is for tax relief. The bill, starting March 1, eased burdens on some people receiving unemployment benefits, Cobra health insurance and food stamps.

The high-profile tax measure was the $116 billion Making Work Pay tax credit that began appearing in workers’ paychecks on April 1.

The Joint Committee on Taxation did not have exact figures for how much in tax relief has been withheld so far, but estimated a total of about $20 billion.

“It’s just not fast enough,” said Bob Brusca, economist with FAO Economics. “There’s a lot of political agenda associated with stimulus, on top of the fact that the economy is clearly in worse shape than administration thought.”

Part of the reason stimulus has been slow-going so far is the number of hurdles projects need to clear before money gets out the door. Projects need to meet certain guidelines, as the government seeks to ensure that the money is spent wisely.

For instance, the electronic health record program has been allocated $20 billion, but the Health Department will not pay out the funds until October 2010 — until hospitals and physicians can demonstrate that they are using the records meaningfully.

Yes, the article I linked to presents the anti-stimulus argument made by some conservatives.

Here Paul Krugman talks about the conservative argument that the stimulus is a bad idea. Of course, he disagrees with it.

Speaking of Paul Krugman: he has yet another honor (of sorts).

Health Care

Here is a rather spirited exchange on health care:

I love the way that conservatives bring up “food”. This isn’t the same thing at all. Sure, it is an essential (and yes, we have food stamp programs). But

1. No one is going to go bankrupt because they suddenly need $ 100,000 of food that they can’t afford or a 1000 dollars a month worth of drugs.

2. No food stamp program is going to turn someone way because they have “pre existing hunger”.

Speaking of Republicans:

Paul Krugman points out that it is nothing new for the Republicans to compare the Democrats to Nazis.

Yes, individual liberals did the same to Bush, but you didn’t see Congressional level Democrats doing that. You would see a blogger or a journalist here and there doing that (and of course, the comparison is beyond absurd).

More Republicans Not all of them like Sarah Palin. I am almost thinking that there needs to be some sort of Whig party; a party of economic and world affairs conservatism that attracts smart, reality based people would be a nice addition.

Republicans attempt to smear President Obama The Republicans show a still of President Obama that, well, is misleading at best. The video clears it up. But, to be fair, some liberals attempted to do something similar to Senator McCain (Senator McCain was merely trying to look at the notes on the lectern).

Nancy Pelosi: she got hammered for saying that the CIA mislead her. Now the CIA admits it. But at least one conservative media member piled on Representative Pelosi at that time:

Extremists in the military Yes, it is a problem. Click on the photos to see what some of our military members say. Sure, this represents a small minority.

Do you want to see what made my heart flutter in high school?

The top photo is of the Kyle sisters; the one of the left used to wear very tight jeans. . The second one is of Patti; she was also a track runner and a cheerleader.

Yeah, at that time I had some, er….hormonal reactions to those young women. This was 10th grade, about 1974.

Main Street Mile: My Humiliation is Complete

Note: if you are looking for results: flight 1 (walking), flight 2 (run), flight 3 (run), flight 4(fast runners).

My stats (6:43 official though I got 6:42): 75 (all flights) beat my time, 68 did not (excluded walkers in flight one). 7 who beat me were my age or older; 18 that were my age or older didn’t.

I talked about my feelings of doom here.

Bottom line: I warmed up with an easy mile of running (legs felt heavy!), felt better after some walk/accelerations (about 1 mile), and then lined up in the second wave.

Yes, I started off too hard (going down hill) and hit the half way point in 3:10; a bit too fast. I started to get “joggy” and when I was close to 5:00 at 1200 meters I knew I had to pick it up some; I was gaining on many in my heat but got passed a few times as well.

My finish time (my watch) was 6:42; we’ll see what the chips say.

Then I watched the last heat (the fast people); they ranged from 4:04 to 6:10. About 9-10 years ago, I would have been bringing up the rear of that group.

I got to talk to many including Lou Murray (a 70 something year old triathlete), Larry McMasters (who is recovering from injuries), The Big Willi Style and to my yoga teacher (afterward).

So, 6:42 on a down hill course. Next mission: to do this time on a track.

Note: it is cool running down main street; if you can make this event, DO IT!!!

Note 2: Was it 2001 when I averaged this pace for 5K? 1999 when I averaged this for 10K??? Groan…

Updates

Article One:

PEORIA —

Tony Jenkins had a few C.H.O.I.C.E. words Thursday night for Main Street Mile announcer George Jacob.

“Four categories,” race staffer Jenkins told the city councilman on the spot at the intersection of Main and Adams Street.

“Walkers.

“Fast runners.

“Faster runners.

“Fastest runners.”

A total of 187 participants in the aforementioned four heats started the Main Street Mile near Main and Sheridan Road and finished a couple of blocks short of the riverfront.

A drop in elevation from 600 feet at the start to 490 feet at the finish increased the likelihood faster than usual times could be had by all.

“That downhill was amazing,” said Metamora Township High School alumnus Nikki Domico, 24, who traveled from Bloomington to compete in the fundraiser for the Peoria Area Track & Field Club and the C.H.O.I.C.E.S. Youth Outreach program.

“I was actually kind of taking it easy, because I was scared I was going to fall,” Domico said. “Once you got to the bottom (of Main Street hill), I’m like, ‘I got nothing to lose, I might as well go all out.’

“The worst that’s going to happen is I’m going to throw up, and that’s OK.”

Domico was the first female finisher in the fastest heat.

But the Illinois State University graduate student took a backseat Thursday to the first person to cross the finish line in the second of the four heats.

That was Tammy Bryan, 36, who was pushed from the start by Main Street Mile promoter Adam White.

Bryan arrived in style, riding in a fire-engine red push chair that arrived Thursday from Adaptive Star in Selah, Wash.

Bryan’s time was 5 minutes, more than 10 seconds faster than Domico’s performance.[...]

Article Two:

PEORIA —

Nobody in Peoria broke a four-minute mile Thursday, despite trucking down Main Street hill as fast as their feet could carry them.

But somebody in the next Main Street Mile might.

Word gets out. People come. …

“This is an event for the future,” Peoria City Councilman Eric Turner predicted, standing on the corner of Main and Sheridan, about 30 minutes before 187 men, women and children took off to see how fast they could get downtown to the intersection of Main and Adams, one mile away.

Turner might be right.

I initially wondered who would enter such an event. Serious runners, yes. Young legs with big egos driving them. That makes sense.

But I did not expect the CityLink buses that rolled up to the front door of the Running Central store, hard by the starting line. The doors opened, and out stepped all kinds of people. Old men, rotund men, little children in soccer shirts, middle-aged women, hot mamas.

That’s right, “Hot Mamas.” So said the fronts of hot pink T-shirts worn by three women from East Peoria: Christa Tucker, a mother of two; Christy Decker, a mother of three, and Julie Burwell, mother of one. The backs of their shirts declared they “Run Like Mothers.”

“We thought this would be a really cool experience,” Tucker said. “It’s all downhill. Our goal is to stay on our feet and not crash and burn.”

At this, they succeeded.

(photo from the Peoria Journal Star)