A Bit of Gloom and Doom (at 3 F in Peoria)

Workout notes I’ll update; I am planning on yoga plus a run then a walk (about 8 miles on foot).
It is 3 F with a new thin layer of snow, so I’ll be inside, once again.

Update: I had to teach Ms. Vickie’s yoga class; I then ran myself into the ground for 2.5 miles on the treadmill and had to get off. I got back on and did 3.5 miles worth of hills; I had to bag the last hill repeat as my right leg (calf/behind the knee) was starting to tighten/stiffen etc. Then I walked two 13.5 minute miles on the track (those went easy).

Analysis: this weekend’s workout was tough on me and I haven’t recovered as yet. 9 minute training miles are NOT easy miles for me at this stage; I have to accept that.

Today: it seems as if I am finding nothing but gloomy articles to read.

Economic Forecast: as cold and dark as the current Illinois conditions. Hat tip to bobswern at the Daily Kos. The source article:

Perhaps the Obama administration will be able to bring a surprisingly early end to the ongoing U.S. financial crisis. We hope so, but it is not going to be easy. Until now, the U.S. economy has been driving straight down the tracks of past severe financial crises, at least according to a variety of standard macroeconomic indicators we evaluated in a study for the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) last December.

In particular, when one compares the U.S. crisis to serious financial crises in developed countries (e.g., Spain 1977, Norway 1987, Finland 1991, Sweden 1991, and Japan 1992), or even to banking crises in major emerging-market economies, the parallels are nothing short of stunning. [...]

Let’s start with the good news. Financial crises, even very deep ones, do not last forever. Really. In fact, negative growth episodes typically subside in just under two years. If one accepts the NBER’s judgment that the recession began in December 2007, then the U.S. economy should stop contracting toward the end of 2009. Of course, if one dates the start of the real recession from September 2008, as many on Wall Street do, the case for an end in 2009 is less compelling. [...]

Turning to unemployment, where the new administration is concentrating its focus, pain seems likely to worsen for a minimum of two more years. Over past crises, the duration of the period of rising unemployment averaged nearly five years, with a mean increase in the unemployment rate of seven percentage points, which would bring the U.S. to double digits.

Interestingly, unemployment is a category where rich countries, with their high levels of wage insurance and stronger worker protections, tend to experience larger problems after financial crises than do emerging markets. Emerging market economies do have deeper output falls after their banking crises, but the parallels in other areas such as housing prices are quite strong.

Note: if the Daily Kos diary headline seems confusing (unemployment at 22 percent):

Their mean historical increase in unemployment–and it’s important to note that we’re talking about Bureau of Labor Statistics’ “U3″ unemployment levels here–is projected to be roughly seven percent from the start of the downturn. If one approximates unemployment to have been at 4.5% at the start of the current downturn (and I believe that’s fairly generous), this indicates an expected unemployment rate of 11.5% at the height of the current downturn would be expected based upon the duo’s historical projections now.

However, “U3″ unemployment rates are running at levels that are approximately half of current “U6″ employment rates. December’s “U3″ rate was 7.2%. December’s “U6″ rate was 13.5%.

Social Breakdown I don’t know if I agree with this, but I read the article anyway (hat tip to NWTerriD)

The daily bleeding of thousands of jobs will soon turn our economic crisis into a political crisis. The street protests, strikes and riots that have rattled France, Turkey, Greece, Ukraine, Russia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Iceland will descend on us. It is only a matter of time. And not much time. When things start to go sour, when Barack Obama is exposed as a mortal waving a sword at a tidal wave, the United States could plunge into a long period of precarious social instability.

At no period in American history has our democracy been in such peril or has the possibility of totalitarianism been as real. Our way of life is over. Our profligate consumption is finished. Our children will never have the standard of living we had. And poverty and despair will sweep across the landscape like a plague. This is the bleak future. There is nothing President Obama can do to stop it. It has been decades in the making. It cannot be undone with a trillion or two trillion dollars in bailout money. Our empire is dying. Our economy has collapsed.

How will we cope with our decline? Will we cling to the absurd dreams of a superpower and a glorious tomorrow or will we responsibly face our stark new limitations? Will we heed those who are sober and rational, those who speak of a new simplicity and humility, or will we follow the demagogues and charlatans who rise up out of the slime in moments of crisis to offer fantastic visions? Will we radically transform our system to one that protects the ordinary citizen and fosters the common good, that defies the corporate state, or will we employ the brutality and technology of our internal security and surveillance apparatus to crush all dissent? We won’t have to wait long to find out. [...]

Perhaps this is an exaggeration, but I am beginning to understand that our “leadership” (corporate) really don’t have community interests at heart; at least many of them don’t. Interestingly enough, we hear those who whine about the “entitlement” mentality, but mostly against those who don’t have very much and almost never against those who are ripping off society by the million, often with taxpayer money.

Rise of a new, more vicious right wing?

Listen to John McCain; note what he says about the economic times and employment rates:

The New York Times takes Bill O’Reilly to task for his racist/nativist views.

Last week at the National Press Club in Washington, a group seeking to speak for the future of the Republican Party declared that its November defeats in Congressional races stemmed not from having been too hard on foreigners, but too soft.

The group, the American Cause, released a report arguing that anti-immigration absolutism was still the solution for the party’s deep electoral woes, actual voting results notwithstanding. Rather than “pander to pro-amnesty Hispanics and swing voters,” as President Bush and Karl Rove once tried to do, the report’s author, Marcus Epstein, urged Republicans to double down on their efforts to run on schemes to seal the border and drive immigrants out. [...]

But even more telling was the presence of Peter Brimelow, a former Forbes editor and founder of Vdare.com, an extremist anti-immigration Web site. It is named for Virginia Dare, the first white baby born in the English colonies, which tells you most of what you need to know. The site is worth a visit. There you can read Mr. Brimelow’s and Mr. Buchanan’s musings about racial dilution and the perils facing white people, and gems like this from Mr. Epstein:

“Diversity can be good in moderation — if what is being brought in is desirable. Most Americans don’t mind a little ethnic food, some Asian math whizzes, or a few Mariachi dancers — as long as these trends do not overwhelm the dominant culture.”

It is easy to mock white-supremacist views as pathetic and to assume that nativism in the age of Obama is on the way out. The country has, of course, made considerable progress since the days of Know-Nothings and the Klan. But racism has a nasty habit of never going away, no matter how much we may want it to, and thus the perpetual need for vigilance.

It is all around us. Much was made of the Republican mailing of the parody song “Barack the Magic Negro,” but the same notorious CD included “The Star Spanglish Banner,” a puerile bit of Latino-baiting. It is easily found on YouTube. Google the words “Bill O’Reilly” and “white, Christian male power structure” for another YouTube taste of the Fox News host assailing the immigration views of “the far left” (including The Times) as racially traitorous.

Hat tip to proseandpromise at the Daily Kos.

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