You can’t make this stuff up Part II

Do you want to know what that 25 percent of people that approve of President Bush look like?

Hat tip to LiberalsMustDie.

Running Progress Continues

Workout notes yoga class; my teacher was in a good mood. Then, “7 mile” course in 1:11:34; I am getting better at it as I’ve taken a couple of minutes off of my time from about 2 weeks ago. I was 20 minutes at Jefferson, 52:54 back at Jefferson, and the last leg was 18:40.

Today will be rather busy; I had better get on my projects.

Can you make stuff like this up?

A Georgia Representative:

A Republican congressman from Georgia said Monday he fears that President-elect Obama will establish a Gestapo-like security force to impose a Marxist dictatorship.

“It may sound a bit crazy and off base, but the thing is, he’s the one who proposed this national security force,” Rep. Paul Broun said of Obama in an interview Monday with The Associated Press. “I’m just trying to bring attention to the fact that we may _ may not, I hope not _ but we may have a problem with that type of philosophy of radical socialism or Marxism.”

Broun cited a July speech by Obama that has circulated on the Internet in which the then-Democratic presidential candidate called for a civilian force to take some of the national security burden off the military. [...]

Obama’s comments about a national security force came during a speech in Colorado in which he called for expanding the nation’s foreign service.

“We cannot continue to rely only on our military in order to achieve the national security objectives that we’ve set,” Obama said in July. “We’ve got to have a civilian national security force that’s just as powerful, just as strong, just as well-funded.”

The Obama transition team declined to comment on Broun’s remarks. But spokesman Tommy Vietor said Obama was referring in the speech to a proposal for a civilian reserve corps that could handle postwar reconstruction efforts such as rebuilding infrastructure _ an idea endorsed by the Bush administration.

Gee, building bridges makes you a Nazi, at least in Republican eyes?

If you wonder why some of the local right wing nut jobs sound like such idiots, look at the Republican leadership.

Some of these people are a complete joke.

PS: this is what people are responding to:

These are the remarks, IN CONTEXT:

“Loving your country shouldn’t just mean watching fireworks on the 4th of July,” he said in a speech in Colorado Springs, Colo. “Loving your country must mean accepting your responsibility to do your part to change it. If you do, your life will be richer, our country will be stronger.”

The Illinois Democrat pledged that he would make enhanced public service a central part of his presidency if elected this fall.

“I won’t just ask for your vote as a candidate,” he said. “I will ask for your service and your active citizenship when I’m president of the United States. This won’t be a call issued in one speech or one program. I want this to be a central cause of my presidency. We will ask Americans to serve. We will create new opportunities for Americans to serve.”

Obama said he would boost the size of the active military, but that the nation’s future depends on more than just additional soldiers.

“It also depends on the teacher in East L.A., or the nurse in Appalachia, the after-school working in New Orleans, the Peace Corps volunteer in Africa, the Foreign Service officer in Indonesia,” he said.

Obama reflected on how the presidencies of Franklin D. Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy both made public service hallmarks of their administration and how the nation was the better for such efforts.

He promised to increase AmeriCorps slots from 75,000 to 250,000 and pledged to double the size of the Peace Corps by 2011.

“We cannot continue to rely only on our military in order to achieve the national security objectives we’ve set,” he said. “We’ve got to have a civilian national security force that’s just as powerful, just as strong, just as well funded.”

The phrase “civilian national security force” is meant to be a metaphor for things like AmeriCorps and the Peace Corps; that is clear from the context of his speech.

Woo-woo-woo-woo-woo-woo…..

Fact Checking the Pundits

In the New York Times, we see the following from John Harwood:

The encomiums greeting Barack Obama’s victory last week presented a reverse image of the darts for John Kerry after his 2004 defeat. But Kerry campaign veterans could not help noticing a surprise in the returns.

In the battleground state of Ohio, where Mr. Kerry lost the presidency to George W. Bush, the 2.74 million votes he received almost precisely matched Mr. Obama’s 2008 total. Mr. Obama won because John McCain received 300,000 fewer votes than Mr. Bush did.

That points to a cautionary reminder for Mr. Obama and his team: the election turned partly on what they did right, but also on what Republicans did wrong. And there is no assurance that Democrats will confront a similarly star-crossed opposition in elections to come. [...]

Go ahead and read the rest of the article. But what about the quoted statistics? I decided to look at the states that flipped from Kerry to Obama. I logged Democratic votes, Republican votes and total votes for both 2008 and 2004.

State	2008 D	2008 R	2008 T	2004 D	2004 R	2004 T	T 2008-2004	d-D	d-R
Ohio	2,708,988	2,502,218	5,211,206	2,741,165	2,859,764	5,600,929	-389,723	-32,177	-357,546
NV	531884	411988	943,872	397,190	418,690	815,880	127,992	134,694	-6,702
N M	456,185	335,196	791,381	370,942	376,930	747,872	43,509	85,243	-41,734
Col.	1,216,793	1,020,135	2,236,928	1,001,732	1,101,255	2,102,987	133,941	215,061	-81,120
Ind.	1,367,503	1,341,667	2,709,170	969,011	1,479,438	2,448,449	260,721	398,492	-137,771
Fla.	4,143,957	3,939,380	8,083,337	3,583,544	3,964,522	7,548,066	535,271	560,413	-25,142
N. C.	2,123,395	2,109,402	4,232,797	1,525,849	1,961,166	3,487,015	745,782	597,546	148,236
Va.	1,905,588	1,703,478	3,609,066	1,454,742	1,716,959	3,171,701	437,365	450,846	-13,481
Iowa	818,172	677,449	1,495,621	741,898	751,957	1,493,855	1,766	76,274	-74,508

Nationally, Obama is up 66 million to 58 million, according to CNN. In 2004, Bush won with 62 million to 59 million for Kerry.

Obama got 4 million more votes that Bush did and McCain got 1 million votes fewer than Kerry did.

Holy Cherry-Picked Statistics Batman! Yes, turnout in Ohio was down but it wasn’t down in the other states. In fact, North Carolina actually drew more Republicans to the polls in 2008 than in 2004.

Of course, populations went up as well. But please, going by one state to make one’s point?

Monday Evening Post 10 November 2008

A comparison between Obama’s win and Clinton’s first win in 1992:

First, a look at the respective maps: see the Obama map on my sidebar.

Now look at Clinton’s 1992 map:

Note that the above map does not show the 1 Electoral Vote that Obama got from Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional district; so it is 365-173 (assuming McCain holds on to Missouri, as it appears likely).

Now read FiveThirtyEight’s read on this:

[...] The Democrats seem to be on the verge of quarantining the Republicans to a few, relatively electorally dry areas. As compared with 1992, there has been a net swing of at least 19 points to the Republicans in seven states: Kentucky, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Louisiana, West Virginia, Wyoming and Arkansas. All of these states but Wyoming form a contiguous region, which we refer to as the “Highlands” region but which is more commonly called the Inland South.

As compared with 1992, this represents a significant loss for Democrats, as Bill Clinton carried each of Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, Louisiana and Arkansas in 1992. As compared with 2000 or 2004, however, the loss of these states is less electorally relevant to the Democrats. Al Gore was not able to carry any of these states, including his home state of Tennessee, nor was John Kerry. If you’re going to have to sacrifice a particular region of the country, this is not a bad one to sacrifice. The only state that may sting a little is Missouri, which shares much in common with this region and is quickly losing its bellwether status.

What’s more, the Democrats have not had to sacrifice the entirety of the South. As compared with 1992, they performed better in North Carolina, South Carolina and Florida, and much better in Virginia. The three Southern states that Barack Obama carried but Bill Clinton didn’t — North Carolina, Virginia and Florida — account for 55 electoral votes, nearly canceling out the 65 electoral votes from the seven Southern states (Georgia, Missouri, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas and West Virgina) that Bill Clinton carried but Barack Obama didn’t. [...]

Social and Religion: I sometimes made fun of “witch hunters” of the sort that backed Sarah Palin. But in other countries, “witch hunters” can cause real damage to real human beings:

Mary is a pretty five-year-old girl with big brown eyes and a father who kicked her out onto the streets in one of the most dangerous parts of the world. Her crime: the local priest had denounced her as a witch and blamed her “evil powers” for causing her mother’s death.

Ostracised, vulnerable and frightened, she wandered the streets in south-eastern Nigeria, sleeping rough, struggling to stay alive.

Mary was found by a British charity worker and today lives at a refuge in Akwa Ibom province with 150 other children who have been branded witches, blamed for all their family’s woes, and abandoned. Before being pushed out of their homes many were beaten or slashed with knives, thrown onto fires, or had acid poured over them as a punishment or in an attempt to make them “confess” to being possessed. In one horrific case, a young girl called Uma had a three-inch nail driven into her skull.

Yet Mary and the others at the shelter are the lucky ones for they, at least, are alive. Many of those branded “child-witches” are murdered – hacked to death with machetes, poisoned, drowned, or buried alive in an attempt to drive Satan out of their soul.

The devil’s children are “identified” by powerful religious leaders at extremist churches where Christianity and traditional beliefs have combined to produce a deep-rooted belief in, and fear of, witchcraft. The priests spread the message that child-witches bring destruction, disease and death to their families. And they say that, once possessed, children can cast spells and contaminate others.

The religious leaders offer help to the families whose children are named as witches, but at a price. The churches run exorcism, or “deliverance”, evenings where the pastors attempt to drive out the evil spirits. Only they have the power to cleanse the child of evil spirits, they say. The exorcism costs the families up to a year’s income.

During the “deliverance” ceremonies, the children are shaken violently, dragged around the room and have potions poured into their eyes. The children look terrified. The parents look on, praying that the child will be cleansed. If the ritual fails, they know their children will have to be sent away, or killed. Many are held in churches, often on chains, and deprived of food until they “confess” to being a witch. [...]

Our defeat on Proposition 8 in California I can fully understand the anger and despair over this outrage. But those who campaigned to defeat this made some political mistakes. Perhaps Obama’s campaign can provide clues on how to do better. Lee Stranahan writes:

Now that Obama has lit the path for being both right and effective, it’s time tor the conservatives to be the grumbling losers and time for progressives to chalk up victories on issues important to them by applying the lessons of this election.

1) Anger Loses
The protests and expressions of anger on the part of the GLBT community and their friends and family have been impressive. Thousands of people have taken to the street and their anger is justified. I don’t think it’s smart, however. I see no evidence at all that it’s going to help advance the cause of gay rights.

If anger won elections, John McCain and Sarah Palin would now be the king and queen of America. McCain was practically bursting blood vessels in the last few speeches of the election and he lost in a landslide. Anger turned off the independents at the same time it fired up the base.

Just because anger is justified doesn’t mean it’s wise. [...]

2) Get Organized
The No On 8 people have shown they can get big numbers out to a rally. So why couldn’t they run an effective ad campaign, send out a clear message or win the election?

The Yes on 8 crowd had the advantage of a built in organizing system in the churches. [...]
Without that structural advantage, the pro gay marriage crowd needed to work harder and not be self satisfied. The forces that defeated gay marriage in California did what Obama did; they organized a diverse group of voters and got them out to the polls.

3) Outreach Works
Barack Obama showed that reaching beyond the base can yield big results. I haven’t seen much evidence that the people who support gay marriage did much more than reach out to the people who already support gay marriage. In fact, rallies that have protesters yelling ‘Mormon scum!’ are negative outreach. [...]

4) Pick Your Battles
The Obama campaign showed a lot of discipline in picking which battles to fight and which to avoid. Here’s a good rule; pick battles you can win.

The current tactic of trying to fight church tax exceptions is a dead on arrival loser of a battle. It’s not going to happen. [...]