Interesting Football October 4 2008
Currently I am watching the end of the exciting Florida State-Miami football game. The rain is coming down in buckets and the Seminoles just recovered the Hurricane onside kick to seal a 41-39 victory. The Hurricanes had scored with just under 20 seconds left to cut it to the final margin; the scoring play was a “tackle-eligible” pass.

Prior to that, I got to see Illinois whip Michigan 45-20; Michigan continued to turn the ball over repeatedly.

Illinois has improved greatly over the past few years; their quarterback (Juice Williams) has developed into one the nation’s best.
I watched the Stanford-Notre Dame game from start to finish; in the beginning both teams moved the ball well, but Cardinal mistakes helped the Irish move to a 28-7 fourth quarter lead.

But the Cardinal defense bottled up the Irish and got the ball back and they ended up cutting the lead to 28-21 with a few minutes left.
Notre Dame stayed aggressive on offense though and managed to move the ball enough to pin the Cardinals back on their 1 yard line with a good punt (and a mistake by the return man who fielded the ball at his own 1).
In a game that I didn’t get to see, Navy used two blocked punts to beat Air Force 33-27; this game was a minor upset. This is the second game in a row in which Navy beat a good team on the road (last week it was Wake Forest).
Navy blocked two punts for touchdowns, Matt Harmon tied a school record with four field goals and the Midshipmen beat Air Force for a sixth straight time with a 33-27 win on Saturday.
The victory gives the Midshipmen (4-2) a leg up in their quest for a sixth straight Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy, an annual competition between Army, Navy and Air Force for service academy supremacy. They play Army in the last game of the season.
Blake Carter blocked Ryan Harrison’s punt early in the fourth quarter and Bobby Doyle pounced on it in the end zone, helping send the Midshipmen to their third straight win.
Carter also returned a blocked punt 25 yards for a score in the first quarter after Greg Shinego broke through the line and got a hand on it.
Jarod Bryant, filling in for an injured quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, rushed for 101 yards and a touchdown. Eric Kettani finished with 75 yards.
Harmon hit field goals of 35, 48, 44 and 32 yards to tie a school mark held by five other kickers.
So now I have Texas vs. Colorado on, though I’ll be checking on the Ohio State-Wisconsin game and the North Carolina-Connecticut game. The U. Conn. Huskies are ranked number 24.
Texas just scored to go up 14-0 in the first quarter; things are looking good (from my point of view
)

Update It finished 38-14 and the score reflected how dominant that Texas was. But Colorado missed three field goals.

The Ohio State, Wisconsin match up is much more competitive. It is 10-10 in the 4′th quarter with the Buckeyes attempting the go-ahead field goal. The kick is perfect and now the lead is 13-10; there is 10:52 left in the game.

Wisconsin made a long drive and took the lead 17-13 with 6:30 left in the game.
(photos from the yahoo photo gallery)
October Saturday Football Afternoon
It is a little slice of heaven for me: ND-Stanford game on TV, wife out and about, and I have the lap-top.
This will be mostly non-election stuff.
Evolved and Rational She is doing some taunting here, but she makes an excellent point that speciation has been observed (one species evolving into another one) and discusses an example:
Speciation has been observed in nature yet again.
Some female fish have eyes for their man only. Colourful African cichlids have evolved into new species because females are partially blind to others.
But even as that discovery is made, the species are under threat because the polluted waters they live in are causing them to interbreed.
Lulz on you, cretinshits creationists. How does it feel like being pwned over 9000 times? Is the resulting butthurt enough for you to join us in reality, or are you doing to still delude yourself with your godbot lies and delusions? Choose wisely. [...]
The explanation:
Mutations in the genes for light-detecting proteins called opsins explain why, Seehausen says. His team found that these genes had changed faster than the rest of the fish’s genes, a sign of evolution in action. Red fish evolved red-sensing opsins, while blue fish developed blue-sensing proteins.
Tests in laboratory tanks confirmed that females with red-sensing eyes went for red males, while blue-eyed females followed suit. Hybrid females, just like those in the murky waters, showed no preference at all.
Follow the link to see the original source and to see her advice to those who continue to deny evolution.
Ok, just one sort of political note: many of us love outspoken, attractive spunky women (E. R. certainly qualifies!) But we like intelligent, outspoken, attractive spunky women.
Scientific Advance 3-Quarks Daily has a snipped of an excellent article on how someone who, while having brain function, is so paralyzed that he can’t even talk. He communicates by blinking his eyes “yes” or “no”.
Brain scientists have implanted electrodes into his brain that sends impulses to a computer that can “speak” for him, and he has made some progress.
Elections: I’ve wondered if we (the US) would be better off if we weren’t stuck with the two-party system. But every system has its pitfalls; a Canadian talks about their election dilemma:
I probably need to explain strategic voting to those people who don’t have the “advantage” of living in a multiparty democracy. Strategic voting is where you deliberately vote for someone who is not your first choice in order to prevent another candidate from winning in your riding.
In the context of the current election, it means that a Liberal could vote for an NDP candidate if it was the NDP candidate who had the best chance of defeating the Conservative candidate in a particular riding. The idea being floated right now is that all Liberal, NDP, and Green Party supporters unite behind the candidate who has the best chance of defeating the Conservative candidate and preventing the Conservatives from getting a majority. [...]
Follow the link for the rest of the article. It is a well known mathematical fact that, if there is more than two choices, there will be no “totally fair” way for voters to decide among multiple choices. See Arrow’s Theorem.
Probability, Statistics and our Current Economic Mess.
From Slate
Here’s how to make money flipping a coin. Bet 100 bucks on heads. If you win, you walk away $100 richer. If you lose, no problem; on the next flip, bet $200 on heads, and if you win this time, take your $100 profit and quit. If you lose, you’re down $300 on the day; so you double down again and bet $400. The coin can’t come up tails forever! Eventually, you’ve got to win your $100 back.
This doubling game, sometimes called “the martingale,” offers something for nothing—certain profits, with no risk. You can see why it’s so appealing to gamblers. But five more minutes of thought reveals that the martingale can lead to disaster. The coin will come up heads eventually—but “eventually” might be too late. Most of the time, one of the first few flips will land heads and you’ll come out on top. But suppose you get 11 tails in a row. Just like that, you’re out $204,700.* The next step is to bet $204,800—if you’ve got it. If you’re out of cash, the game is over, and you’re going home 200 grand lighter.
[...]
The carefully synthesized financial instruments now seeping toxically from the hulls of Lehman Bros. and Washington Mutual are vastly more complicated than the martingale. But they suffer the same fundamental flaw: They claim to create returns out of nothing, with no attendant risk. That’s not just suspicious. In many cases, it’s mathematically impossible.[...]
In other words, the martingale strategy doesn’t eliminate risk—it just takes your risk and squeezes it all into one improbable but hideous scenario. The expected value computation is unforgiving. No matter what ultrasophisticated betting strategy you adopt, you can’t expect to make money in the long run by flipping a fair coin. There’s always a risk of loss—and the smaller the chance of losing, the uglier the potential loss becomes. The result is a kind of “upside-down lottery.” If you play the Powerball, you’ll probably lose the cost of a ticket, but you might win big. In the martingale, you’ll probably win a little, but if all six numbered balls match your ticket, then the bank comes around and takes away everything you’ve got.You probably wouldn’t sign up for that game. But the news of the last few weeks confirms that we’ve been playing it for years. And it looks like the balls just lined up. Oh, and there’s one more difference between the thickly interwoven financial markets and the lottery: If one person wins the Powerball, just one person gets rich. If one massively leveraged financial firm loses while playing the martingale, it can bring the whole system down with it.
So, what about that rare event? They happen, and often it is impossible to build a model that accurately calculates the probability of such a rare event. For more on this, see Taleb’s work.
Bradley Homecoming 5K (3 mile) run
Well today I ran in the Bradley Homecoming 5K run. Disclaimer: though the race director disagrees, I am pretty sure the course is about .1 miles short; that is it is about 3 miles.
Time: 23:56; this seems to jibe well with the 8 minutes a mile I thought that I was averaging. My overall place was 20 out of 75. This was a Palinesque type of performance: poor, but better than the dreadful, Couric-interview caliber performances I’ve had of late (in running). So was this progress? You betcha!!!!
The race: The day was perfect for running; 40’s, clear, not much of a wind. I started off toward the back of the pack; there were students there and most of them take off way too fast. So I eased into it and tried to keep a steady pace; I focused on posture and on not overstriding and, yes, on bending my knees. I have a bad habit of landing on a straightened knee.
I steadily gained on people and saw Lupe Martinez up ahead; I figured that I wouldn’t be getting that close to him but keeping him in sight would be a good goal.
We turned into a neighborhood and I just focused on relaxing. Though there were no splits, I know the course and knew roughly were the splits were; I kept it at about 8 minutes per mile in hopes of picking it up 20 minutes into the race. Yes, I know that a good runner would be long done at 20 minutes, but I am not a good runner!
So about 10-12 minutes into it I settled into roughly the place (20′th) where I would finish. But something odd happened.
At about this time I was going back and forth with this slender woman who had a ponytail and was wearing dark gray spandex tights. I thought that she was fading but then about 16 minutes into it, she passed me again.
I thought: oh, I didn’t realize she was African American; at first glance I had thought that she was white (yes, this observation has relevance) and I was surprised she had as much left as she did. We went at it back and forth until she finally broke free at about 20 minutes into it.
I didn’t pick it up; by then it was real struggle to hold on. But I did keep up the pace.
Finally we turned back on campus; I knew the rest of the way and I told myself to just focus on turning over and relaxing; I wanted to stop and walk.
I held on to my place and managed a semi-kick toward the end to hold someone else off.
I finished and was happy to break 24.
I shook the hand of the lady that I raced. Then I saw…a white slender woman in a ponytail in dark gray spandex tights, and yes she was white! It turns out that I had confused the two women as they looked very similar from behind and they were dressed in similar tops and tights.
Afterwards I cooled down a bit by walking it in with my buddy Tracy; we then had a bagel, fruit and yogurt breakfast.
I won an award in the “old male faculty” division (aka “old, fat and slow” division).
Afterward, as I was eating with Tracy, this shapey lady (blue tights with some cute visible p. l.s) came to talk to me…(“wow, I still got it” I thought at first); it turns out that she worked with my wife about 24 years ago.
As I left the building, one of my former students came up to me and paid me a nice compliment.
So, it has been a good day.
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