Post Pennsylvania

Workout notes I am planning 10 miles after the coffee does its work. Later tonight, I’ll do some super slow miles with the group at Building Steam.

Update: pretty day (but windy, as usual) and I walked my Columbia-Forrest Hill-Glen Oak-River trail-Kumpf-Moss course in 2:15:46, or about 4 minutes faster than before (2:20). It seemed as if I timed it to reach each intersection at its busiest time! Still, I was happy with my 33:08 return leg; my pace was about 12:50 mpm. I didn’t push the pace, nor did I stroll easily either.

The day was breathtakingly beautiful; rabbits were out, and the birds and the frogs were singing away.

Election: It ended up 55-45 (when rounded) or 54.7 to 45.3 (9.4 percent). A nice analysis of the break-down by region is here (with county map)

Keith Olberman posted this video:

What I don’t like about this is: in the film, Rocky lost at the end.

Here is what the exit polls had to show. Among men it was Obama 53% to 46% but among women it was the reverse, Clinton by 56% to 44%. However, breaking that down by race gives a different picture. She won white men 53% to 46% and white women 64% to 36%. Obama won black men 96% to 4% and white women 89% to 11%. We’ve seen that before only never so starkly. Black women identify enormously by race and hardly at all by gender. By income we again see the usual pattern, with Clinton winning by about 10% in households making under $75,000 a year and Obama winning those making $150,000. Also following the usual pattern: among high school graduates, Clinton won by 28% while Obama won the people who have done postgraduate study by 4%. Clinton won among Protestants, Catholics, and Jews. Obama won voters under 44 and Clinton won voters 45 and older.

These demographics have held for pretty much all the big industrial states in the rust belt all year. What is new is the partisanship. 98% of the Clinton voters said they would be satisfied only if Clinton were the nominee and 97% of the Obama voters said it’s Obama or nothing. Also, 94% of the Clinton voters thought she will be the nominee, despite most outside experts having serious doubts about that.

The news isn’t all bad for Obama though.

NBC News has projected Clinton to win Pennsylvania, but if Obama keeps it closer than the margin in Ohio, there are some signs in the exit polling that would show why.

Obama fared better in the largest voting bloc by age, the 50-64 group. In Ohio, that group made up 32% of the electorate, and Clinton won it 60%-37%. This time, the group made up 36% of the electorate, and Clinton won it by a slighter margin, 56%-44%.

The electorate in Pennsylvania is older (second oldest in the country behind Florida). The +65 category was 23% of the vote vs. just 14% in Ohio. But Obama did better with this group in Pennsylvania (63%-37% for Clinton) than in Ohio (72%-26% for Clinton).

Education was another factor. Among those without a college degree, Clinton won 58%-42%, similar to her victory in Ohio, 58%-40%, but more voters in Pennsylvania reported having a college degree (47% vs. 32% in Ohio). And Obama won those voters 51%-49%, a similar margin to Ohio (51%-47%).

Obama also scraped around the margins with every racial demographic, but not enough to pull off the victory. Clinton won white women 66%-34% (47% of the electorate); she won that group 67%-31% in Ohio (44% of the electorate). With the overall white vote, Clinton won it 64%-34% in Ohio and 62%-38% in Pennsylvania. Among white men, Clinton won 58%-39% in Ohio and 56%-44% in Pennsylvania.

Among black voters (13% of the electorate; was 18% in Ohio), Obama won by similar margins in Pennsylvania (89%-11%) as in Ohio (87%-13%).

Hillary Clinton picked up about 10 delegates (that is, 10 delegates more), which does little to change the overall race.

More exit poll stuff (for stats geeks)

UPDATE: Even more exit poll data, highlighting gender, race, education and income:

race and age:

white 18-29 53-47 clinton
white 30-44 53-47 clinton
white 45-59 59-41 clinton
blacks 92-8 obama

education:
high school 65-35 clinton
some college 50-49 obama
college grad 55-45 obama
postgrad 54-46 obama

family income
under 15K 51-49 obama
15-30k 56-44 clinton
30-50 57-43 clinton
50-75 53-47 clinton
75-100 54-46 obama
100-150 59-39 obama
200 plus 68-32 obama

Note: “blacks” evidently was “black men”.

Obama also won 89 percent of African-Americans. But at 14 percent, their turnout was lower than the Pennsylvania primary record, 17 percent in 1988 and 1984.

Interestingly enough, we keep hearing: “Obama can’t close the deal with white working class voters”. Well, we don’t hear “Clinton can’t close the deal with African Americans”. Reason: my guess is that she (and others) are taking the African American vote for granted.

Now, we do hear a bit of “she isn’t going to get many of these newly energized young voters.”