Pennsylvania Prediction: Clinton 56, Obama 44

Workout notes 2650 yard swim; 500 free, 5 x 100 IM, 5 x (25 drill, 25 swim), 10 x 50 free on 1 (51-53, don’t laugh too hard! ) 4 x 100 paddle, 50 side, 50 back. Then some stretching.

Mathematics I got a small blurb accepted by the Flaws, Fallacies and Flim-flam section of the College Math Journal. So, when do the groupies start to hound me?

Elections:

I really wish that this were true.

Public Policy Polling, the most accurate pollster this election cycle, has released their final poll for Pennsylvania: they are projecting

Obama 49

Clinton 46
SurveyUSA has been callled the “gold standard” many times this year, but PPP has also earned deserved recognition.

They reported the most accurate results for the South Carolina, Wisconsin, Texas, and Ohio primaries.

SurveyUSA has been incredibly accurate in projecting not only the winner, but also the margin of victory, in numerous contests. Their only errors have been Missouri (Clinton by 13 pts.) and Texas (Obama by 1 pt).

But to date, PPP has achieved a perfect record, including Texas (Clinton by 6 pts.) and Ohio (Clinton by 9 pts.)

I was especially impressed by their call in Wisconsin. As you remember, the political press predicted a close contest, based on the state’s large Blue-Collar demographic. In fact, four different polling outfits (ARG, Research 2000, Strategic Vision, and Rasmussen Reports) all projected a narrow single-digit outcome.

PPP initially projected a 10 pt victory, and in spite of criticism by the Media-Elite, they didn’t pull back, and issued a final report, projecting a 13 point Obama victory. It’s difficult to stand firm and not hedge when everyone is trashing you as an outlier.

And that is what I am saying here. Outlier; one can’t simply cherry pick what they want to hear.

I’ve talked this year about the undecided voters breaking towards the leader.

Statistical note Over the past 8 primary elections, I’ve noticed that the polls prior to the election predicted the loser’s percentages very, very well. Data base: Electoral Vote.

Mississippi: polls: Clinton at 38, 37. Final: 37
Texas (primary) polls: Obama at 47, 46, 47, 49, 48, 44, 47. Final: 47
Ohio: polls: Obama 47, 42, 44, 44, 45, 44. Final: 44
Rhode Island: polls: Obama 40. Final: Obama 40.
Vermont: polls: Clinton 33. Final: 38 (outside the margin of error)
Wisconsin: polls: Clinton 42, 49, 42, 43. Final: 41
Virginia: polls: Clinton 38, 37, 38. Final: 35
Maryland: polls: Clinton at 32, 31, 37. Final: 36.

Maybe later I’ll see how this worked during the Super Tuesday Primaries.

Update: Super Tuesday Primary States:

Alabama: poll: Clinton 47, final 42 (outside MOE, but only one poll)
California: poll 41, 46, 42, 48. Final Obama 42
Connecticut: poll 47, Final Clinton 47
Illinois: poll 30. Final: Clinton 33
Massachusetts: poll 46, 39. Final: Obama 41
Missouri: poll 54, 47, 47. Final: Clinton 48
New Jersey: poll 43, 41, 43, 41. Final: Obama 44
New York: poll 39, 38. Final: Obama 40
Oklahoma: poll 27. Final: Obama 31

Conclusion: the polls seem to get the loser’s percentage down pretty well. The winner tends to underpoll; that is, the undecideds tend to break one way rather than split.

Right now, Obama is polling consistently at 42-45 percent, so 44 looks about right. Remember, the polls have been very good about predicting the percentage that the loser will get. HRC should pick up 13-15 pledged delegates, though Obama should get that right back in North Carolina.

I know that I’ve spoken out against this in the past, but a “dream ticket” (Obama in the President slot) is looking more and more likely to me.

Other

Hate Groups in America: Al Jazeera has a news report.

Note: the story talked about in Arkansas has also happened in Beardstown, IL. This was, in part a reacting to a meat processing plant bringing in Mexican immigrants to work.

So this stuff shows the rural south; nevertheless we have these sorts of problems in the Midwest as well.

Part I talks about the hate groups. Part II talks more about the election and interviews a former skinhead. All of it is pretty good, but the end of part II is very good.

Humor I like track and field for many reasons. But, to be brutally honest, this is one of the reasons I like to watch the elites:

I saw this photo on a blog post titled “do you have a sporty ass“. In her case, I’d say that the answer is yes. I’d say “no” if you were asking about me.